While the data tables for the above Savanta/Scotsman poll are still under wraps, wikipedia seem to know the numbers: Poor wee Conor, living in fear of the dread MacLennan, the Savanta poll actually shows a 1% increase in support for the SNP just ‘as internal divisions’ were supposed to be ripping them apart. Oh dear, that won’t do. That doesn’t fit. I know, thinks Conor. I’ll just ignore that and pretend the 4% fall from the last Savanta poll to this one is evidence that it’s ripping them apart. No one will notice, will they? Tee hee, muppet! Continue reading SNP support increases as internal divisions rip through it?

The above line graph suggests that definite support for ‘Yes’ may have flattened but far more noteworthy is what is happening to both the ‘No’ support and the undecided. As you know, I’m not a proper statistician but it seems clear that the ‘No’ support is much softer and in recent months has gone into a steep decline. At the same time, the number of undecided has begun to climb more steeply. I think, correct me if I’m wrong, far more of former ‘No’ supporters than of former ‘Yes’ supporters are becoming unsure, undecided. This is a good thing, isn’t … Continue reading The opposition is softening

I know, I know, this is a Hootsman-free zone but I couldn’t let this one go. Conor Matchett writes: Support for Scottish independence has dropped by four points in a month, a new poll has suggested, as internal divisions rip through the SNP. You have to admit, it is good. He has a flair for comedy if not for statistics. What he means is that support for independence, between two Savanta polls, has dropped by four points. It has but it’s meaningless. You need to look at the trend based on the averages of several polls, as in this below. … Continue reading I laughed. I had to.

Yesterday, we see the above in the Herald. Here’s the evidence: So, 137 deaths in Scottish care homes in the week-ending 17th January and only 58 last week, down, a 57% fall in only three weeks. Why? We do get a vague wee explanation in the phrase: ‘Care home residents were among the first to be vaccinated.‘ Yes, yes, we knew that but wasn’t it more than that? They were THE first to be ALL vaccinated. They were AMONG the first in England too but the death rate there is not falling and is much, two to three times, higher … Continue reading Because?

For the second time, Scotland has vaccinated around 60 000 per day, regardless of snow and ice, roughly twice the rate of NHS England and more pro rata than England for nine days now. Though Scotland’s lower overall rate, while it concentrated on the care homes, was apparently fair game for comparison then, it is no longer of interest to the MSM, when it goes the other way. From the line graph above, you can see the gap in overall numbers is now less than 1%. When they pass by, will Reporting Scotland have anything to say? As for the … Continue reading Gap narrows again as Scotland vaccinates twice as many for second time

Former health correspondent, Helen mcCardle, now tourism correspondent, leaves me confused on this on. She opens with that 8% above and then: Passengers on just 19 of the 247 flights landing at Scotland’s major airports next week will be subject to hotel quarantine, leading to fears that new Covid variants will continue to be imported. The Scottish Government is taking a tougher line than the UK Government by demanding 10-day supervised quarantine in hotels for all international arrivals, rather than the 33 ‘red list’ countries. 19 out of 247 is 7.7% but then we hear that, next week, Aberdeen has only 10 … Continue reading Herald makes case for UDI for Scotland

Having protected the most vulnerable, Scotland’s mass vaccination centres have exceeded the UK average for 7 days now, and by a factor of more than two in the last 24 hours. As a result, the gap in the percentage of the population vaccinated has narrowed from 4% on the 1st February to only just over 2% today: At this rate, Scotland will overtake England in a week or so. In terms of the 7 day average per 100 000 population, Scotland passed England two days ago: In the last 24 hours the gap was already wide in the other direction … Continue reading Closing the gap roughly speaking

The First Minister just told us about ‘a pretty whopping increase of 61,299 since yesterday, which is by some distance the highest daily figure that we have recorded in Scotland so far.’ That’s 11 352 per 1 million population. Strangely enough the figure for England is not getting much attention, here or there. According to the Evening Standard, it was 253 688. That’s only 4 530 per 1 million population. So, broadly speaking like Jamie McIvor, Scotland vaccinated roughly, approaching, getting-on-for, three times as many. Must be those 6% of the vaccinators, from the Army. Continue reading PREMIUM: Scotland jags ‘broadly, roughly, in the range of’ THREE TIMES AS MANY!

Malcolm Offord and No Borders Written by Andrew Rosie: “The Scotsman” reports to-day that Tory members in Lothian are upset that Malcolm Offord, who donated £150,000 to the party has been endorsed by Ruth Davidson as a Lothian List candidate over more established campaigners. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-tories-face-cronyism-accusations-after-ps150000-donor-wins-lothians-list-seat-endorsement-3128233 However, Offord’s main public political activity centred round the London based No Borders campaign which was given unrivalled promotion by the BBC in the run up to September 2014. Stalbury Trustees contributed £50,000 to the No Borders,” the non political grass roots” campaigning group set up by the Greenock-born financier Malcolm Offord who chipped in … Continue reading An Offord they couldn’t refuse?

Leaving aside for the moment the likely inaccuracy, that is understatement, in the ONS data for England, care home deaths have begun to climb dramatically there, while in Scotland, the increase has been arrested before falling. In Scotland, the Pfizer vaccine was introduced to care homes from the 14th of December and in England, I think, from the 21st. In Scotland, early logistical problems with low-temperature storage were overcome and all the efforts went into to care home delivery. By the end of January 95% had been done. In England, perhaps due to a more passive response to those same … Continue reading The price paid for delaying care home vaccinations