I know, I know, this is a Hootsman-free zone but I couldn’t let this one go.
Conor Matchett writes:
Support for Scottish independence has dropped by four points in a month, a new poll has suggested, as internal divisions rip through the SNP.
You have to admit, it is good. He has a flair for comedy if not for statistics.
What he means is that support for independence, between two Savanta polls, has dropped by four points. It has but it’s meaningless. You need to look at the trend based on the averages of several polls, as in this below. Support does seem to have flattened or stabilised but there is no evidence for a fall.
Notably ‘No’ support seems in freefall as undecideds climb.
Ironically, Matchett is the lad who in August last year had the nerve to wonder how ‘Mr Swinney performed in his statistics modules at schools.’
Further, see that ‘as internal divisions rip through the SNP?’
Of course he’s not going to say ‘because‘ but he wants you think it. He’s not going to say it because, of course, even he knows that support for the SNP and for independence are tied only very loosely and at some length.
I can’t see the figures for SNP support as yet but ‘party still set for May majority‘ suggests no dip there and, thus, the current ‘internal divisions’ are having about as much effect as earlier ones have – nil.