Five polls in a row now, from five different pollsters, with their own slightly different methodologies, indicates a safe return to a majority for independence after a wee suspicious dip around the time of the media feeding frenzy on the FM and the former FM. The average lead of 2.6 is a bit modest compared to the slightly above 5 in November and December 2020 but emergence from lockdown, Tory cock-ups and campaigning will surely push it up again. Continue reading Yes leads for 5 polls in a row

Today’s Ipsos MORI poll for STV for 4th April puts the SNP, in the constituency vote, on 53% against only 20% and 18% for the Conservative and Labour. This suggests that the SNP is in line for 70 seats and a standalone majority of 11. Though the SNP is down from 47% on the last Ipsos MORI poll in February, in the Regional vote, at 38%, the Greens are up from 8% to 12% suggesting 11 seats and giving a pro-Indy lead of 22. Alba are down again at only 3% and the AFU scored zero. Continue reading SNP pull away with massive lead in latest poll

An Election Communication received by a friend of TuS, from Anas Sarwar / Scottish Labour which headlines a National Recovery for Jobs. It’s just a pity that they are not supporting local printing jobs as the leaflet is printed in Kettering Northants .. but to be fair they do spread work around as their last leaflet received was printed in Essex! Before posting this, I thought I’d better check my local SNP leaflet hadn’t been printed in London. It was printed in the Ayr constituency, in Troon. Continue reading Sarwar’s Labour supporting a jobs recovery in Kettering!

As a loyal SNP member, I shouldn’t be having this immature fun, but Holyrood will be a far better watch with Salmond and Galloway there. According to the Telegraph today, a party source told them: With 4% support, they [George Galloway’s AFU] would cost us five or six seats.Their support is coming disproportionately from us. The AFU predict a 14% share. I’m a gambler like someone, so I predict that the Alba Party will take 12 and the overall Indy majority will be 20 or more. All interplanetary comments welcome, earthling. Continue reading Galloway 6: Salmond 12?

In the run-up to an election, candidate in 2016 for RISE: Respect, Independence, Socialism and Environmentalism, James McEnany offers some anecdotal stuff from some teachers suggesting they’re responsible for nothing that happens in schools and that Nicola Sturgeon is ‘looking to blame them’ for the ‘mess’. This is an attempt to weaken support for the SNP. I see no statements by the FM blaming anyone or evidence of a mess, in reliable sources using reliable survey data from a representative sample of teachers. I see no acknowledgment of McEnaney’s loyalties to a cluster of former and current political organisations participating … Continue reading James McEnaney is no better than John McLellan

He’s in a wee bubble, inhabited by larger-than-life characters who he thinks determine our fates and who he, uniquely, can analyse for us. I can be in a bubble at times too, writing this stuff, but I get out. Even in my room, I get out to the opinion polls just to check in with a reasonable estimate of what others are thinking of doing. Here’s the key thing Campbell ignores. Most of the voters do not give a stuff about this psychodrama. Support for the parties rises and falls gently barely affected by changes in leadership or policy statements … Continue reading As SNP foot-soldiers surge on the streets, Glenn Campbell narrows his focus till he cannot see

We’ve been here before with BBC Wales far too soft on the devolved government compared with BBC Scotland’s more determined approach when exploiting health problems. Lisa Summers should probably not read on here. BBC Wales had headlined the above, tamely: Covid: Wales’ over-50s vaccine target success disputed When you read the report, it’s full of juicy stuff any Daily Mail or Sun churnalist would just love, such as: Garry Edwards, 51, from Anglesey, is registered as asthmatic and said he was still waiting for his invitation. He said he was previously told by his surgery only second jabs were being … Continue reading Vaccine crisis: Welsh Labour accused of lying over vaccine target for at risk adults

SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon will today (Wednesday) pledge to raise NHS inpatient, day case and outpatient activity to 10% above the pre-pandemic level as she sets out that the SNP “is the only party with a serious plan for government and for national recovery from COVID.” In a speech today on the NHS, the SNP Leader will thank staff for their efforts during an extraordinary year – and will note that staff numbers are at record levels, that patient satisfaction continues to be high, and that Scotland’s core A&E services have been the best performing in the UK for more … Continue reading SNP LEADER TO OUTLINE RECOVERY PLAN FOR THE NHS

In the Panelbase/Times poll for the 1st April, those respondents born in Scotland were 53 to 47 in favour of independence while those born in England were 70 to 30 against and ‘others’ including EU citizens were 51 to 49 against. Sunday Times Poll 1st April 2021 There are around 350 000 non-British nationals living in Scotland and nearly 500 000 who were born in England In the Survation/DC Thomson poll on the 30th March, BAME groups were 52 to 17 in favour while Whites were 44 to 43 against. In the Hanbury poll on March 1st BAME groups were … Continue reading Persuading the ‘non-Scots’

In the New Statesman Today: The SNP are forecast to win an overwhelming majority of the constituencies. If Scottish parliament elections were exclusively conducted with the FPTP system as it stands in general elections, then the SNP would be winning by a landslide. But they aren’t. The proportional “balancing act” almost excludes the SNP from winning any extra list seats. Why? Because the algorithm determines that they have already won their “fair share” (and then some) of seats through their domination of the constituency ballot. Those SNP list votes are, in effect, wasted. The Alba party are presenting themselves as the antidote to these … Continue reading 74% pro-Indy MSPs? It is tempting