In the New Statesman Today:
The SNP are forecast to win an overwhelming majority of the constituencies. If Scottish parliament elections were exclusively conducted with the FPTP system as it stands in general elections, then the SNP would be winning by a landslide. But they aren’t. The proportional “balancing act” almost excludes the SNP from winning any extra list seats. Why? Because the algorithm determines that they have already won their “fair share” (and then some) of seats through their domination of the constituency ballot. Those SNP list votes are, in effect, wasted.
The Alba party are presenting themselves as the antidote to these wasted pro-independence voters, urging those of a sympathetic mind to go SNP#1 (ie in their constituency vote), and Alba#2 (ie on the list). In the New Statesman’s current modelling, if every SNP voter did vote for Alba on the list vote, then the party balance in Holyrood would look dramatically different to the current forecast.
Independence, first, second and last. We can do the detail later.