74% pro-Indy MSPs? It is tempting

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/scotland/2021/04/how-big-threat-alex-salmonds-alba-party

In the New Statesman Today:

The SNP are forecast to win an overwhelming majority of the constituencies. If Scottish parliament elections were exclusively conducted with the FPTP system as it stands in general elections, then the SNP would be winning by a landslide. But they aren’t. The proportional “balancing act” almost excludes the SNP from winning any extra list seats. Why? Because the algorithm determines that they have already won their “fair share” (and then some) of seats through their domination of the constituency ballot. Those SNP list votes are, in effect, wasted.

The Alba party are presenting themselves as the antidote to these wasted pro-independence voters, urging those of a sympathetic mind to go SNP#1 (ie in their constituency vote), and Alba#2 (ie on the list). In the New Statesman’s current modelling, if every SNP voter did vote for Alba on the list vote, then the party balance in Holyrood would look dramatically different to the current forecast.

Independence, first, second and last. We can do the detail later.

48 thoughts on “74% pro-Indy MSPs? It is tempting

  1. If you are afraid your list vote will be wasted, then vote GREEN. 🙄

    That Alex Salmond’s party is supported by the likes of Wings over Scotland that has spent the last year doing everything they could to drive Nicola Sturgeon from office says all that needs to be said as far as I am concerned.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. By the way, that figure is based on TWENTY-FIVE PERCENT of SNP voters voting for the party led by a man as unpopular in Scotland as Boris Johnson, a man widely loathed by women voters. It is laughable and will never happen.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. jrtomlin ,you can read this but you have put up the shutters nothing will penetrate your closed mind which is the sign of a born loser .

      People like you have been played by Westminster who will love your post , your attitude , you in a roundabout way are voting against Scottish Independence .

      Hopefully the good people of Scotland will counteract your lack of foresight

      Liked by 1 person

    3. That’s some opinion you have there, which I’m not sure you can actually justify with any evidence. As far as I’m aware, the Alba party does not wish to force Scots law to reject medical philosophy and science, by pandering to the regressive and unsafe ideology that trans-women are women. Which is simply an expression of sexism, as the concept of “women” is already culturally grounded and well established in law. And it does not include biological males.

      Governance and Women’s Economic and Political Participation: Power Inequalities, Formal Constraints and Norms
      https://academic.oup.com/wbro/article/34/1/34/5492442

      Like

    4. The Green Party is run by Wokes. If you are a Women, Husband, Father, Brother, Grandfather do not let them re-define Women, threaten their safety, destroy their hopes in Sport or remove their Rights.

      Like

  2. If a super majority produced
    Then we Immediately file for Sect 30
    With caveat that if no respone within 5 working days, Then we shall demand serious negotiations immediately
    If they answer No or Now is not the time
    Tell them OK but the gloves are off now
    You will require court action to prevent us
    Over to you Westminster

    Like

      1. Alex
        If Supreme court get roped in
        Then I certain it will be a wooly fudged judgement
        A outright refusal on Westminster being Soveriegn would be akin to pulling the pin out of the constitution grenade with no way of putting the pin back in
        Why because saying such can only Ever be interpreted by us to mean
        1.we are NOT a Nation
        2.We are NOT citizens
        3.By default we are mere subjects with no rights whatsover
        4.Again by default we are a colony of England
        And that is exactly why they will fudge it and buy time so they can disempower and impoverish us
        Make no mistake about this
        So in that instance this is now a fight
        To the death of Union
        And as long as any of us stand and draw breath then we shall fight
        And should we not succeed then our sons and daughters shall pick up the mantle
        And on & on & on & on & on
        They cannot win
        End of

        Like

      2. We do not need court action plus a majority
        If we get a majority we can move ahead with Scottish independence
        The bigger the majority the better
        The best way to get a bigger majority is
        SNP constituency for everyone
        ALBA for everyone

        SNP both is wasting a million scottish independence votes as we already know
        So unless you think SNP will win the LIST seat in your area its pointless and will actually help a unionist get your LIST seat

        Liked by 1 person

  3. Exactly correct P1UK. Readers should be aware that the Green Party is NOT primarily an independence party. Patrick Harvie is on the record as stating so. Additionally there is an increasing woman’s movement that are very unhappy with the Greens. Am I the only one reading this?
    Let’s not put all our eggs in one basket again.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. What nonsense. It does not need to be ‘primarily an independence party’ as long as it does support independence. Which it does. Is Alba primarily an independence party or primarily a tool to promote bigotry and Alex Salmond’s ego?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I can see why SNP/Alba members/supporters may well think in terms of needing a party which is ‘primarily an independence party’. And – to be fair – I think that independence is essential to ensure anything else that Scotland wants/needs. (I think I’m correct in believing you feel that too).

        However, not everyone with a vote in May is either of the same mind – or, indeed, ‘soft Noes’. They may not necessarily be politically aware. They just want to know what will affect their everyday life. ie Policies first, independence after that.

        To such as those, a party which says “we’d like to do X – but Scotland will need to be independent before we can” may well be more persuasive. And possibly more attractive to women than one led by Mr Salmond.

        For my part, I shan’t discount them as an option due to an item of legislation that has been shelved and will be open to discussion and/or amendment when it’s reconsidered.

        Like

      2. Iusedtobeenglish
        In simplistic terms i consider that AS & NS
        That when Westminster rejects a Sect 30
        Then 2 heads are better than 1 to counter
        Act

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      3. p1uk
        I see your point.

        I’m just not sure that, after everything that’s been said and done recently, sufficient people IN the movement will be easily convinced that one of those heads should be AS’s.

        OUTWITH the Independence Movement? For many voters – especially the young – the environment is of overwhelming importance. To them, independence could wait – halting the destruction of their world cannot.

        So, to have a party that wants to reverse the damage but, at the same time, knows that independence is the easiest and fastest way of doing it may well be very attractive.

        Like

    1. Yes. A supermajority of 86 or more seats for Indy supporting parties permits the parliament to dissolve itself in a constructive way in order to create a “democratic event” before the 5 year life of the parliament has expired. If we have that ability it strengthens the bargaining power of the parliament should the bojo clown party refuse an S30 or otherwise refuse to negotiate seriously. Below 2/3 majority the parlaiment has no formal powers (yet) to do this.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. How come i regularly post on here and sometimes my post does not appear ?
    Then if i try to redo it i get a message saying duplicate post but the first one still doesnt appear ?
    Is this Mr Robertson or wordpress doing this ?

    Like

  5. Most important–first vote SNP.
    Second, then you have a choice.

    Vote SNP on the list for a tiny return…or…
    Vote Green, get some MSPs who are, perhaps pro-Indy….or….
    Vote Alba, and get some, perhaps many, pro-Indy MSP who will be a….help to self-government…..or…..
    A disruptive nuisance who will set the cause back years.

    Sometimes choices are a pest.
    I know how my votes will go right now—-SNP then Alba.
    We have weeks to go, so things can change, but not ever for the Union.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. This is the fourth attempt at posting this
    The green party does not have Scottish independence as its top priority other matters such as ecology and gender recognition are given higher priority.

    Yes the Scottish greens will support Scottish independence but what do they want in return ?
    In england the england & wales greens have just passed a motion and introduced it to policy that people should be able to choose their gender without legal representation or documentation they say that if a person declares they have changed their gender its enough for it to be accepted furthermore they say that they should be able to freely change their gender and name on their birth certificate , this latter point is a sticking point because there has to be accountability and recording of such changes otherwise people make these important changes and become untraceable , not good for organised society .

    I fear the Scottish greens may adopt or perhaps have already adopted this policy and may want Scottish government , the SNP , to accept and adopt this policy in exchange for supporting Scottish Independence.

    Why put ourselves in the position where we are held to ransom this way.
    Remember Mr Wightman recently left the Scottish greens because of changes to the Scottish greens GRE policy , was it the above changes that made him leave ?
    How would we know ?

    Bright green the uk greens website has further reading of interest

    Like

    1. Greens support independence. Greens have supported FM . After independence we can vote for the Scotland we want. No administration can be bound by its predecessors.
      Of course I’m assuming we’ll remain a democracy with regular elections etc.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. Alex , read and inspect the information freely available about the scottish greens
        They support Scottish independence only because SNP made a deal with them to put in practice the greens ideas about reducing transport emissions in Scotland the greens voted against SNP flights tax and other policies they dont support Scottish independence out of the goodness of their hearts they do it in exchange for SNP adopting some of Scottish greens manifesto commitments

        Read my last post above about why Andy Wightman left the Scottish greens he was a mainstay it was he that did all that work and investigation on land reform and who owns Scotland

        Wake up , the greens will support Scottish independence but will want something in exchange
        What will they want ?
        If you read brightgreen.org the uk greens website for all four countries you will see that GRE is their high priority just now , ive nothing against gre but some of their proposals are extreme

        Liked by 1 person

  7. In Dec I was blocked from posting on the WoS blog, for promoting an SNP 1 Green 2 vote in next months election.
    Undaunted I started to visit SGP for my daily dose of Indy positivity, so when he deleted any posts where I promoted an SNP/Green 1-2 vote I was confused, here was a simple way to increase the Indy majority at Holyrood.
    I tried again with the relevant figures to back up my proposal, no difference I got the delete button every time, I could not figure it out, I was never abusive in any way, so why were my posts failing?
    With Kelly and Campbell now both strong supporters of the new Alex Salmond’s Alba list only Party it’s clear to me now.
    They’ve know about this pop up party for months.

    I’ll be sticking to SNP 1 Green 2 in the North East.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Alex Montrose honestly ive nothing against the greens im right up for ecology i support difficult changes we will all have to make but there is one thing higher priority for me, Scottish independence.

      2016 i voted SNP and greens Dundee West
      This time i will vote SNP and ALBA

      The whole Alex Salmond affair has been very strange
      Never before have you or me or anyone else for that matter
      ever seen or heard of ten women , ten women who supposedly dont know each other
      Coming together all at the same time to accuse a man of rape attempted rape and sexual assault
      These ten women have been brought together by someone who organised it
      We dont know who the organiser was
      Will we ever

      one of the ten women said one of the other ten wasnt even at the dinner party so couldnt have been raped
      another was said to have not been at an event where she said she was touched

      another who said she was touched in 2007 and 2008 went back to other events after that and says she was touched again

      and another who said there was attempted rape had failed to mention this to the police when interviewed six months earlier

      Ten women
      Fourteen charges
      None found guilty by the court

      Give me a break
      Im sick of the people who continue to put out this
      “ ahh but he must be guilty of something “
      These people think they have the right to become judge and jury themselves
      They are just modern vigilantes

      Like

  8. Definite desperation emerging from the SNP leadership.

    However, more people like Noel Dolan are recognizing the reality of the situation.

    “ONE of Nicola Sturgeon’s closest former advisers has backed voting for Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party.

    Noel Dolan was senior special adviser and policy guru while Sturgeon was deputy First Minister having joined her team in 2004 when the SNP were in opposition at Holyrood.

    In an interview today the former aide said voting for Alba on the list would improve the odds of a pro-independence Scottish Parliament.”

    The National

    No doubt SNP leadership supporters are now desperately trying to dig up unsavoury facts about Mr Dolan.

    Like

    1. I’ m a retired nobody just like Mr Dolan is now and he’s entitled to vote whichever way he likes. He’s entitled to change his party allegiance as he thinks fit. Having been an aide to NS while AS was FM doesn’t add to his credibility

      Like

  9. Vote for who you believe best represents your own beliefs, that’s what democracy is all about, I believe in Independence and I also believe Nicola will get us there. I have the utmost respect for what she has done this past year and can’t see any of the other party leaders doing any better. Sure there are elements of the SNP policies I disagree with but I personally won’t be voting for any party that is looking to kick Nicola out. Whatever others think is up to them, at the end of the day we only have to justify ourselves to ourselves.

    Liked by 1 person

  10. It’s a no brainer. Waiting 20 years to break D’Hond’t.

    If the Greens are in favour of Independence why do they stand at constituencies. Instead of just on the list, where they might have more chance. They only field a small number of candidates and can lose their deposits. They would gain more from fielding list candidates. The Greens waste public monies. Opposing projects and developments. The trams debacle. Although the utility system has been replaced. Edinburgh the wealthiest city in Scotland has subsidies transport. Other rural areas there are no bus services.

    Like

    1. Article in today’s National pointing to Ivan McKee’s seat being under threat because a Green is standing in the constituency.

      Like

      1. The Scottish Greens will get fracking and open cast coal mines for Scotland, if Scotland doesn’t secure independence, so my advice to them would be get right behind the SNP, and make independence your priority, or forget your eco green stuff, it just won’t happen.

        Like

      2. Arty Hetty . . . Exactly. Well said . . . . . The Greens leaving the decision to stand in a constituency up to local branches does ma nut in . . . . Goes to show many of them dont give a Fig about independence. . . . And are happy for Westminister to make environmental decisions for them . . . .

        Like

    1. Had a quick look. It sounds interesting.

      I’ve got something that I have to do first, so shall look at it properly later.

      Thanks, AH

      Like

  11. Having a pro-indy parliamentary majority does not mean there will be a majority vote for independence. Back in 2008, Wendy Alexander said to Alex Salmond ‘Bring it on!’. The referendum that is. Apparently that chalkenge nearly wrecked his ‘game plan’. Strange thing to say if you ask me. If winning the referendum was not the game plan what was? As for the new ‘game plan’, I don’t believe it involves winning any referendum.

    Like

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