If there was to be a General Election in the United Kingdom in the near future, when it is safe for an election to be held, for which party would you vote?   With support across the UK holding up at 43%, in this poll by Redfield & Wilton on 27th May, with a Scottish sample of 135: Con: 16% Lab: 22% LD: 12% SNP: 47% Green: 1% This seems to confirm the damaging effects of Cummingsgate or Barnard Castle Portcullis, on Tory support in the last few days. This was apparent in the Survation poll giving the Tories less … Continue reading Third poll confirms collapse in Scottish Tory support and strong preference for A N Other as PM

This gives evidence of what MAY be a lead indicator of an emerging ‘problem’ for England’s management of the pandemic. It follows this posted earlier by the TuSC: Source: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/05/27/did-the-ve-day-celebrations-cause-excess-deaths-in-england-to-climb-again/ The latest (last updated on week 21, 2020) EuroMOMO graphs of Z-scores i.e. its standardised international measure of ‘excess mortality’ used by among others Public Health England as a surveillance tool, is revealing. Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ The EuroMOMO graph indicates that the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ has stalled in the latest weekly assessment. This was from what was England’s exceptional, its ‘extreme’ (EuroMOMO’s description) high in European … Continue reading Thanks to the UK Government, the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ may have stalled

New cases of coronavirus in care homes have now fallen dramatically to a daily average of 65, from 89 in the previous week and 109 in the week before that: 20th to 26th May average: 65 13th to 18th average: 89 6th to 12th average: 109 https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/ Continue reading Dramatic slowing in spread of coronavirus in care homes

The Editor takes full responsibility for the headline. By stewartb: ‘ROLL UP, ROLL UP …. GET YOUR ‘PERSPECTIVE’ HERE! Covid-19 testing, care homes and New Zealand For anyone following media reports and the comments of some opposition politicians in Scotland, you could be persuaded that Scottish Government ministers aided by Scotland’s public health institutions, Scottish Government officials and independent advisors must have all got this ‘Covid-19 testing in care homes’ issue so wrong – exceptionally and uniquely, even wilfully, wrong – by implementing an approach that is completely at odds with international practice. Is this justified? This is where ‘perspective’ … Continue reading Message for Carlaw and Leonard: New Zealand’s care homes did not expect asymptomatic cases to be tested but THEY were expected to isolate them for 14 days

The above graph was tweeted by Glyn Hughes (@SquashedBox) and shared with me by arosie69. It seems to show that most objective measure of the impact of covid-19,excess deaths, has begun to climb in England and Wales after apparently beginning to fall. In the week ending 15th May, there were 4 247 excess deaths compared to 3 382 in the previous week after falling from 7 758 and 11 437 in the previous two weeks. While firm conclusions cannot be drawn at this stage, the increase has been linked with the VE Day celebrations on 7th May and unclear messaging … Continue reading Did the VE Day celebrations cause excess deaths in England to climb again?

You’ve gotta laugh. It’s not just Macwhirter posing with his new suit these days, it’s his pose these days as the voice of sensible, moderate, reason and Yes/No flippability. This is the man who can see through that SNP Govermnent’s actual competence to the ‘con-trick’ it must be, because George Foulkes or Gordon Brewer told him it is. Now, he thinks that the Scottish Tories have spines because one has resigned his government post and their leader has been dragged out at last to, kind-of, maybe, with the greatest respect, suggest, perhaps, that Dominic Cummings should consider his position, as … Continue reading Talking of backbones, none of you have much of one

In the Herald today: SCOTLAND has “missed” more than 70,000 tests in the past two weeks as concerns persist about the nation’s vital test, trace and isolate strategy that is due to go live tomorrow. It comes as the Royal College of Nursing Scotland, has told ministers it had noted the “increasing divergence” in testing policy between the Scottish and UK government and believed that the nation “needs to match England” on the extent of testing. How did the RCNS tell ministers? in some ‘note put forward and seen by the Herald.’ Why on earth would such a thing not be … Continue reading Does nursing union really want Scotland to copy England’s testing con-trick?

From YouGov for the Sunday Times, with fieldwork on 25th and 26th, with a Scottish sub-sample of 152 18+ adults and with the poll on 18th-19th results in brackets: Con: 20% (25%) Lab: 16% (15) LD: 3% (4%) SNP: 54% (51%) Greens: 4% (2%) This reinforces the results of the smaller Survation poll [87], for the overlapping dates of 22nd to 26th May, giving the SNP 55%. It suggests erosion of the Tory vote due to the Cummings saga though less dramatic than the 10% return in the Survation poll. The Lib Dems look simply irrelevant if slightly more alive … Continue reading Pro-Indy parties at 58% – Lib Dems get 3% and go home to prepare for the end

BBC Scotland Business website is so short of real business reports they’ve had to pad out with three repeats from the Politics site. Surely Douglas Fraser checks out the business mags for this kind of thing: From Insider today: More than 90% of rural business owners are confident they can reopen safely after Covid-19 restrictions are lifted, according to a report by Scottish Land and Estates (SLE). The survey of 250 firms found 56% are confident they can reopen all of their business safely, while 36% are confident part of their business can restart while adhering to social distancing measures. The … Continue reading Someone tell Douglas Fraser: 90% of rural businesses are confident!

Brenda Steele: I’ve been thinking about what has led to the lack of trust as reflected in the Survation poll here: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2020/05/26/coronavirus-views-reflect-fact-scots-do-not-trust-bbc-or-press/ Perhaps a watch of this briefing – specifically to the questions from the press – might explain the public’s attitude.  https://mobile.twitter.com/scotgov/status/1264881311262617600  FM NicolaSturgeon. holds a press conference on #coronavirus 25/5/20 I took the trouble to listen a second time and make notes – not a pleasant task, I can assure you. This is my assessment: Within this briefing there were repeats of essentially the same same question  There were repeats of questions that have been asked at previous … Continue reading The offal quality of Scottish journalism