Thanks to the UK Government, the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ may have stalled

This gives evidence of what MAY be a lead indicator of an emerging ‘problem’ for England’s management of the pandemic. It follows this posted earlier by the TuSC:


The latest (last updated on week 21, 2020) EuroMOMO graphs of Z-scores i.e. its standardised international measure of ‘excess mortality’ used by among others Public Health England as a surveillance tool, is revealing.


The EuroMOMO graph indicates that the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ has stalled in the latest weekly assessment. This was from what was England’s exceptional, its ‘extreme’ (EuroMOMO’s description) high in European terms several weeks earlier. 

I suspect these and similar data are being carefully scrutinised, nervously behind the scenes in Whitehall but seem to have been ignored by the media (to date) as far as I can see. Perhaps it will take another week or two of EuroMOMO data to either ring alarms or permit a very long sigh of relief. Hopefully the latter!

The Z-scores for NI, Scotland and Wales have now fallen substantially. For NI and Wales the Z-score has dropped to what EuroMOMO terms a ‘baseline’. Scotland’s Z-score, like NI and Wales always much lower than England’s, continues (so far) on a downward trend.

3 thoughts on “Thanks to the UK Government, the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ may have stalled”

  1. Chris Giles of the FT tweets

    The UK has suffered 60,000 excess deaths, directly or indirectly linked to Coronavirus, according to official figures.

    Only the much larger US has had more.
    UK has had the highest global excess death rate (per million)
    And only Peru has had a higher increase in deaths

    Excess deaths is the measure Boris Johnson and Chris Whitty have championed for comparison.

    According to Giles the timing of the lockdowns relative to the spread of the virus had a significant effect on the excess deaths.


  2. When examining the Z-score graphs for all the EuroMOMO associated countries on its website it is also clear that ONLY England shows the downward trend in excess mortality stalling at a level above, still well above, the ‘substantial increase’ standard identified by EuroMOMO. So an outlier in another way.


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