This gives evidence of what MAY be a lead indicator of an emerging ‘problem’ for England’s management of the pandemic. It follows this posted earlier by the TuSC:
The latest (last updated on week 21, 2020) EuroMOMO graphs of Z-scores i.e. its standardised international measure of ‘excess mortality’ used by among others Public Health England as a surveillance tool, is revealing.
The EuroMOMO graph indicates that the downward trend of England’s level of ‘excess deaths’ has stalled in the latest weekly assessment. This was from what was England’s exceptional, its ‘extreme’ (EuroMOMO’s description) high in European terms several weeks earlier.
I suspect these and similar data are being carefully scrutinised, nervously behind the scenes in Whitehall but seem to have been ignored by the media (to date) as far as I can see. Perhaps it will take another week or two of EuroMOMO data to either ring alarms or permit a very long sigh of relief. Hopefully the latter!
The Z-scores for NI, Scotland and Wales have now fallen substantially. For NI and Wales the Z-score has dropped to what EuroMOMO terms a ‘baseline’. Scotland’s Z-score, like NI and Wales always much lower than England’s, continues (so far) on a downward trend.