When I saw the large sample poll suggesting a 56% to 44% lead for Yes, by Hanbury Strategy, it rang bells. I felt sure there was something dark about them. Our Corruption Correspondent, Annie McIndoe, was on the ball again and shared this with me: Here’s an extract: A lobbying firm run by allies of Dominic Cummings was handed a contract worth £900,000 to conduct public opinion polling on the coronavirus pandemic. The contract was awarded to Hanbury Strategy without any advertisement or competitive tender process. And it was awarded to Hanbury despite the fact that – as our sworn … Continue reading 12 point YES lead poll has Dom Cummings connections!

From Alasdair Galloway Mike Small in a piece today (“On Harry Cole, Doomsday and the new Hyper-Unionism” – https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2021/03/23/on-harry-cole-doomsday-and-the-new-hyper-unionism/), quotes John Harris as saying “ “Shall we at last face the facts? Even if the institutions of the United Kingdom creak on unchanged or are somehow saved by a new federalism, as a meaningful political entity the UK is all but over. Independence is partly a state of mind, and for very different reasons, a large number of people in Scotland, Wales and England have got there already.” (“English politicians are waving the union jack, but its meaning is tattered … Continue reading Something not about Alex, Nicola, or even James Hamilton

The Good Friday Agreement allows for a referendum on Irish reunification, within 7 years of the previous event, if there has been a consistent majority in opinion polls and a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly or a vote by a majority in the Assembly. These conditions for a referendum have all been more than met in Scotland since the independence referendum of 2014, 7 years ago, Today SNP MP Allan Dorans, asked the Prime Minister why, in the light of this, he would not agree to a Section 30 Order enabling the democratic will of the Scottish people … Continue reading One rule for Ireland, only sneering contempt for Scotland

Quite a few old, often paunchy, white guys seem to have a ‘thing’ about Nicola Sturgeon. I know she is the First Minister, but it’s been getting a bit creepy for a while now. Ruth Davidson revealed its dark appeal for some when she enthused, after Andrew Neil supposedly gave the FM ‘a good kicking.’ That other unreconstructed big beast, Andrew Marr, got right into giving her the sharp edge of his tongue with some carefully selected ‘facts’ back in November. Iain Macwhirter is more the determined wimp with her. He writes today, under that headline predicting damage: NICOLA Sturgeon’s … Continue reading Does he dream of Nicola?

Herald columnist Uzma Mir seems particularly uninformed. Leaving aside her puzzling notion about heads and hearts and her parroting of the usual myths of an incomparably high Scottish Covid death rate, this astounds: The internecine warfare within the party is utterly unedifying and won’t do them any favours at the polls. The Conservatives no doubt will make slight gains under Douglas Ross, slightly riding on the coat-tails of Ruth Davidson, but I don’t think there will be enough time for the new leadership of Anas Sarwar to bed in to make a difference, although I do look forward to him … Continue reading Clueless

Yes, there’s a prize for even better headlines. Yes, it’s the same prize as the last time. Continue reading Headlines that should have been as Davidson and Ross ‘get a kicking!’

Two recent sets of results from Hanbury Strategy with impressively large samples, have appeared quietly after some delay, to combine with the two most recent polls to cast into serious doubt any decline in support due to either the SNP ‘civil war‘ or any ‘vaccine boost‘ for Unionism. After discounting the flawed Savanta ComRes poll for the Scotsman, 4 out of the last 8 have an average lead of nearly 6% for Yes, compared to the less than 2% for No, in the other 4. I shouldn’t tempt fate but with the FM cleared, the Tories dumped and some emergence … Continue reading Rumours of decline in support for independence have been greatly exaggerated

In one of the largest polls of Scots over 16 years-of-age, more than 70% of BAME groups support Yes. In weighted samples of 3 884 on March 1st and 1 488 on March 9th, between 70% and 80% of BAME respondents would vote Yes, compared to 53% of ‘White’ respondents. Continue reading Massive support for independence among BAME groups

In a quietly released poll by Hanbury Strategy, with a large weighted sample of 3 884 Scots over 16, on 1st March the results were Yes 56% and No 44%. For the male sample of 1 903, the lead was even greater at 57% to 43%. Perhaps most striking is the huge lead for Yes among the younger voters; 81% to 19% for the 25 to 34 years olds, for example. This is a very large sample, more than three times bigger than most and therefore significantly more reliable. In a second wave but with a smaller weighted sample of … Continue reading LATEST: Stunning 12 point lead for Yes in large-scale poll

By stewartb My understanding is that for the Westminster and Scottish governments the Independent Advisors on matters relating to the Ministerial Code are appointments made by PM and FM respectively. Was there an implication in the media that the probity of the individuals and their reporting is somehow diminished by this fact? That would be a very serious charge and slur! The Scottish Government on the matter of the Ministerial Code and how any potential breaches are investigated seems to follow broadly similar practices to HM Government in Westminster. Each government has a document – the Ministerial Code – which … Continue reading A very serious charge and slur!