LATEST: Stunning 12 point lead for Yes in large-scale poll

In a quietly released poll by Hanbury Strategy, with a large weighted sample of 3 884 Scots over 16, on 1st March the results were Yes 56% and No 44%.

For the male sample of 1 903, the lead was even greater at 57% to 43%.

Perhaps most striking is the huge lead for Yes among the younger voters; 81% to 19% for the 25 to 34 years olds, for example.

This is a very large sample, more than three times bigger than most and therefore significantly more reliable.

In a second wave but with a smaller weighted sample of only 1 488 on March 9th the lead is smaller but still clear-cut at 53% to 47%


9 thoughts on “LATEST: Stunning 12 point lead for Yes in large-scale poll

  1. I know what the numbers say premieroneuk, but please be careful of your phraseology, I am over eighty years of age, and have been a supporter of an independent Scotland since my parents explained to me what the petition was they were signing in 1951. The Scottish Covenant was predictably binned by Downing St, and we have continued to be insulted over the last seventy years, much the same as the previous two hundred years.
    If you could be at our monthly meeting, when they took place face to face, while there are a good few young people, most of the group are either middle-aged, or older, so at least in our area, which voted in favour of independence at the last referendum, we will be doing as much as we can to ensure a stonking S.N.P majority in May.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Alex
      Firstly no offence ever was given
      I too a old codger
      But my opening comment was a generalisation of a simple fact that the vast majority of NO voters are to be found in the 60+ demographics and in no way was i implying they meet a early grave,it was merely to demonstrate the mathematical certainty that as time goes by that the No majority for sure goes to the grave whilst the proportion of Yes votes ever increase as the young enter the fray when they turn 16
      All rather akin to the situation of NI
      whereby demographocal change guarantees
      A inbuilt majority for reunification
      Matters little what side you are on
      All a most simple case of maths,That none can defy or alter
      And this proves that Gerry Adams was a genius in the way he trapped the Unionists
      By throwing away the bomb and the bullet
      And replacing it with the absolute certainty of
      The ballot box in future were the most effective of bombs in order to achieve their objective after all they have been fighting this fight for 100 yrs without violence being successful, He merely changed weapons and tactics
      All that matters are Results Results and he is now in touching distance of the winners tape at the finish line
      Game over, Turn and look at the result score board


        1. John
          Their are only 2 certainties in life
          1. We are all going to die
          2.You will never know when
          Eastern philosophy knows this so they treat life as preparing for such
          Whilst in the West it is a matter of complete denial and ending up unprepared
          The key to all this is
          2 You will never know when and that includes us all old and young
          Facts are Facts


    2. Alex – you are right we need to respect our auld Yessers. Like English Scots for Yes, the long-termers have a crucial and very particular presence in the movement. And I think a lot about the fact we’ve lost people along the way who never saw Indy come to fruition (we may all be in that category, yet…)

      I’m not sure how we won over more of your age group, but I think a lot of people who have admired Sturgeon’s commitment during Covid will be outraged at the witch hunting going on. That could sway a lot of older folk?

      The other useful strategy was Salmond’s one of buying the Scotsman and either reforming it or burying it. If only we could do the same with most people’s daily paper.


  2. Good morning!

    Is there any way to edit this blog now that it has been published? I really would like to share it, but there’s a few elements that folk would focus on, rather than the stats. It’s just the way some people are, I’m afraid.

    For example, “81% to 19% for the 25 to 34 years olds” canny be right.

    Also, I had to increase the screen to 400% just to make out the info on the table.

    Kind regards,



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