The average support for Yes over the last 7 polls has been 43.1%. The first poll since the death of the Queen, recorded 42%. The difference in a poll of around 1 000 Scots is thus statistically insignificant and reveals no meaningful effect. The media claims (Express and Sun) of a slump in support are baseless. Continue reading Queen’s death has no effect on support for independence

Readers need no reminder of the many scare stories that circulated in 2014 and that are being recycled for 2023, that Scotland’s shipyards would close with no warship contracts. Today, we see hard evidence of the fragility of these stories: A SCOTTISH shipyard has secured significant contracts to provide warships to Europe. Babcock International, which has also started building the first of five Royal Navy frigates at Rosyth under UK Type 31 programme, is supporting the construction of three vessels marketed as Arrowhead 140 frigates in Polish shipyards. David Lockwood, Babcock chief executive, said: “Driven by innovation and backed by heritage, the … Continue reading Evidence that Scotland’s warship building future is secure

While the Sun and the Express have been crowing about the results of the poll by Deltapoll for the former, there is little to fear in this. The Sun says: Just 42 per cent of Scots would vote for independence if there was a referendum tomorrow, compared to one poll last month that found 49 per cent were in favour of a vote. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/ First, no poll since February 2022 has had support above 48%, the most recent, four weeks ago, had it at 46% and four polls in that same period had had it at between 38% and 42%. So, the … Continue reading Queen’s death has had only marginal and transient effect on support for independence

Playing the usual adding up something bad, over several years, four on this occasion, to get a big number, the Herald comes up with thousands. Greater Glasgow and Clyde had 3 895 from 2018 to 2022. It’s bad I know, but to put it all in context: First, child poverty even before the recent hikes in the Child Payment, unique to Scotland, to £25 per child per week, child poverty was already 50% more common in England: https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/poverty-scotland-2021 Second, malnutrition occurs among children whose families are not in poverty. For example: Third: Despite being considered prosperous nations, developed countries still … Continue reading Malnutrition is not always due to poverty

Reported on 13 September 2022: Attendances at Scotland’s A&E departments in the week-ending 4 September 2002, increased from 26 555 to 27 016. In the same time, performance improved from 66.1% seen in 4 hours to 67.7%. BBC Scotland did not report this but the Herald’s Tom Gordon did. He did! Then he wrote: The Royal College of Emergency Medicine has warned long delays are harming or killing more than 30 patients a week.  A key factor is a lack of social care places leading to the delayed discharge of patients medically fit enough to leave hospital. This creates an … Continue reading Emergency waiting times improve despite surge in demand and the risk to life is minimal

At First Minister’s Questions today, Scottish Labour’s Pauline McNeill will ask: To ask the First Minister what action the Scottish Government plans to take in light of reported figures showing that sexual and violent crime in Scotland has risen significantly over the last five years. Scottish Labour may well know the truth but that won’t stop them asking in the hope of a cheap inaccurate headline. Re Sexual Crimes: The First Minister cannot, for obvious political reasons, just dismiss the question but I can: 1. The implementation of the Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act 2016 has had an … Continue reading There is no evidence of a significant rise in sexual and violent crime

Bob Lamont I was actually quite surprised to see an article on the BBC Scotland web-page this morning at about 15 hours old entitled “Rent freeze plan to tackle cost-of-living crisis in Scotland” but soon realised it was only HMS James Cook/Elizabeth House going on the SNP/SG attack yet again with Comments open, now closed after 2,243 of their dial-a-riot frothing contributions from the “Nicola ate my hamster” brigade, presumably an ongoing contractual arrangement.The equally usual “Analysis by Glenn Campbell”, totally ignores the energy crisis created by the Tories in preference to ” “hard choices” lie ahead and the Scottish … Continue reading Were HMS James Cook half as interested

stewartb ‘Much being made by BBC Scotland of residential landlords’ outrage at the temporary freezing of rents in Scotland until next March. Interesting context on the rental market is available from Rightmove’s Rental Trends Tracker, last updated for April-June 2022. See https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2022/07/Rental-Trends-Tracker-Q2-2022-Final.pdf Headline: ‘Rents grow at fastest annual rate in 16 years’. – ‘National average asking rents outside London hit another new record of £1,126 per calendar month (pcm), rising 3.5% from last quarter and 11.8% higher than last year – ‘Average asking rents outside London have now jumped by 19% (+£177) in the two years since the pandemic started, the … Continue reading BBC Scotland and landlords’ outrage

Alasdair Galloway I have a cunning plan Is a Referendum Bill a good idea? Suggestions have been made from surprising quarters that it is not. Alex Massie has tweeted “It’s likely to be perceived as constitutional gerrymandering and will push people towards independence” https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1566375080086626309 Likewise Stephen Daisley, “Across eight ComRes polls between May 2021 and June 2022, median combined support for another referendum within five years stood at 49 per cent. Across seven Panelbase polls between March 2021 and April 2022, the figure was 54 per cent. So, 60 per cent is a hurdle but you wouldn’t have to be … Continue reading I have a cunning plan

Alasdair Galloway The focus of the weekend was the election of the new Tory leader, and as such the new Prime Minister. However, another focus was Liz Truss suggesting she might introduce a “Referendum Bill” with certain requirements before a vote could be held, and also about what would constitute a majority. In 2014, Alex Salmond expressed no surprise about “the Vow”, saying that it was straight out of what he called “the Canadian playbook” – the strategies used by the Canadian government to win the independence referendum in Quebec in 1995, albeit only just (less than 1%). However, more … Continue reading A Referendum Act