Queen’s death has had only marginal and transient effect on support for independence

While the Sun and the Express have been crowing about the results of the poll by Deltapoll for the former, there is little to fear in this.

The Sun says:

Just 42 per cent of Scots would vote for independence if there was a referendum tomorrow, compared to one poll last month that found 49 per cent were in favour of a vote.


First, no poll since February 2022 has had support above 48%, the most recent, four weeks ago, had it at 46% and four polls in that same period had had it at between 38% and 42%. So, the 42% cannot be attributed confidently to the Queen’s passing. The data is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

Second, Deltapoll have never before surveyed opinion on Scottish independence so may be unreliable.

Third, we’ve seen these fluctuations before and even 42% remains a perfectly acceptable starting point to begin a new campaign.

Finally, does anyone really think that even this minor effect, if there is one, will last, as Charles III gets going?

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