Scotland uniquely placed for epidemiological/population surveillance studies By stewartb A better awareness of our country’s ‘assets’ in scientific research and innovation is important for its own sake. It also helps counter patterns of corporate media and BBC reporting in Scotland on the Coronavirus emergency: (a) recently an over-emphasis on the ‘expertise’ of one retired professor; and too commonly (b) bias by omission in favour of profiling research happening somewhere else. Scotland’s electronic health records – a valued asset NHS Research Scotland (NRS) claims that Scotland has “Strong infrastructure and world-class clinical and academic expertise ..”. In particular, NRS points to … Continue reading The Not-Pennington Profiles – Issue Four of an occasional series

Thanks to Brenda Steele for alerting me to this: In the British Medical Journal on 27th April: A leading statistician has criticised the UK government’s daily reporting of covid-19 swab test results, saying that no inference can be drawn reliably and that the failure to report by sample date could lead to serious misrepresentation of the pattern of the epidemic. “The UK’s data collection and reporting of swab testing is a travesty of statistical science, as you can draw no inferences whatsoever about the evolution of the epidemic,” said Sheila Bird, former programme leader at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge … Continue reading Scottish covid-19 tests useful while UK [English] tests are ‘travesty of statistical science’

Brewer walks into this one, asking: The messaging is going to be very important isn’t it?’ Professor Bauld: In terms of communication going forward, I must say I think the Scottish Government has been far better and more transparent than some other parts of the world, including Westminster, from my personal view, but the communication needs to be nuanced. So, in Scotland, the first thing we must build, and I think we have a lot of it already, credit to the First Minister and her team, is trust. Trust in the Government and then once we start to ease the … Continue reading Leading academic praises Scottish Government on Gordon Brewer’s show

In a painful interrogation of the Chief Nursing Officer, Brewer seems to think that she is somehow responsible for what actually happens in care homes and doesn’t think once to reflect on the care-home owners’ duties. As new cases begin to reduce, something he seems unaware of, elderly patients returning to care homes are tested and, crucially, isolated in the care home until the test results are in, two days later. Brewer is obsessed with the idea that they should only be allowed back into the homes after tests results prove they are infection-free. The CNO tells him that there … Continue reading Gordon ‘GB’ Brewer ignores elephant in the care home room – the owner’s responsibility

The Survation poll with data collected on 16-23 April, overall, suggested 51% of Brits trust the BBC ‘to provide you with information about covid-19.’ With trust for the Scottish Government at 70%, social media was alive with gleeful commentary on the gap but it’s far better than that, when you see the regional breakdown. It’s better because we can reasonably link the responses to the dominant, big audience news broadcasts – Reporting Scotland and Good Morning Scotland – and because ‘Low Trust’ was at these levels: London 14.8% South 18.4% Midlands 21.8% North 21.5% Wales 15.2% N Ireland 11.5% Scotland … Continue reading SNP Government nearly TWICE as trusted as BBC (Scotland)

The 7 Day Average, being used extensively elsewhere, gives us: Last week: 121 new cases Week before: 143 new cases So, last week the average number of new cases per day was 22 less than that for the previous week. From SG trends: https://www.gov.scot/publications/trends-in-number-of-people-in-hospital-with-confirmed-or-suspected-covid-19/ On the 26th March, when there were few suspected cases, the Chief Medical Officer wrote to all care home on infection control and reminding them of the importance of social distancing: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-cmo-cno-cswa-letter-on-social-care-settings/ Physical (social) distancing measures should be followed by everyone, including children, in line with the government advice to stay at home. The aim of … Continue reading Scottish care homes cases starting to fall

Daily fluctuations in the number of new infections tell us little though they are often the stuff of MSM reports, seeking to excite rather than inform. The 7 Day Average trend is positive, falling steadily now for two weeks. The strategy is working. The number needing to be hospitalised is stable and falling slightly. Our worst fears have not materialised. Those requiring intensive care are fewer every day so NHS Scotland is not just coping it could cope with more. We ‘normals’ feel good about this as we would if we were in the black financially, but Lisa Summers and … Continue reading Coronavirus: Steady as she goes but 2 weeks of falling new cases

Yesterday, Andrew Picken wrote: Scotland’s largest health board has warned there have been shortages of some coronavirus protective equipment. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde said the current supply of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) was more stable now but “short supplies of different elements” of equipment were occurring. In a new paper, the health board revealed it had, at times, been forced to buy PPE “at above usual prices”. Global demand for gloves and masks is at unprecedented levels. Nicola Sturgeon has previously said there were “adequate stocks of the main PPE” but acknowledged difficulties with delivering gowns. However, a survey by … Continue reading BBC Scotland uses two-week old tiny survey to wrongly imply current PPE shortages in Glasgow

In a parliamentary question on Wednesday 29 April, Rachael Hamilton (Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire) (Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party) asked the Scottish Government for what reason businesses associated with shootings, deer forests, fishing huts and game larders are ineligible to apply for the small business support grant to mitigate the impact of COVID-19. Kate Forbes replied: We are determined to help keep companies in business and our financial support now exceeds the £2.3 billion passed on from the UK Government and actively works to fill the gaps in the UK scheme. In designing the relief and grant system we had … Continue reading SHOCK: Scottish Tory supports interests of landed gentry

The Scottish Government’s latest release on the health status of fish and shellfish diseases in Scotland is most impressive with only one out of sixteen possible infections not declared free: https://www.gov.scot/publications/health-status-of-fish-and-shellfish-diseases-in-scotland/ Bonamie ostrae, in oysters, is present in four areas: TuSC Fish Correspondent, Professor Alex Salmon and his Research Assistant Nicola Sturgeon [16] have investigated the infestation and traced it back to mass outbreaks in 2012, in England. According to Salmon, Tory cuts to fish inspection in 2010 allowed the infestation to spread quickly from the south doubling the number of cases by 2020. The only solution, he argues, is … Continue reading Leading academic calls for border controls to protect Scottish oysters from new plague