In an admittedly courageous attempt to read academic research, the Herald tries to panic its citizens with the suggestion that ‘Glasgow has been placed next to Manchester and London as one of the cities tentatively predicted to be at risk for COVID-19 in the coming weeks.’ Here’s the data they base the claim on:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

This is the kind of narrow research some researchers love to do and, of course, which journalists and politicians in pursuit of simple explanations, leap on.

It’s guff.

Leaving aside the fact that Glasgow is not placed ‘next’ to London and Manchester but is, in fact, 7 places behind them in terms of its match with Milan, and not much like Wuhan at all, this ‘research’ fails to take account of critical factors such as the quality and universality of health service provision. NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, I feel sure, performs at a level way beyond many of the others in this list.

Also, NHSGGC does have 57 cases out of the total of 227, or 25% of the total, but its catchment population of 1.2 million is 22% of the total Scottish population, so pretty average?

Here are some reminders as to why hospitals in and around London will be unable to prevent that city becoming the kind of coronavirus hub the researchers predict long before Glasgow ever does:

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Damning report into ‘unsafe’ English hospital where A&E target is missed by nearly 40% ignored by BBC