The Herald says:
CORONAVIRUS infections could surge to more than 100,000 per week by mid-July according to a worst-case scenario modelled by scientists for the Scottish Government. The pessimistic forecast – which was drawn up by epidemiologists before daily infections hit an all-time high of more than 3000 – also predicts that over a 1000 hospital beds could be occupied by Covid patients by the middle of next month.
But, put your glasses on and read the small print under the photo. What’s that about a wide gulf? Well, truth be told, the ‘epidemiologists’ are nerds who include the full range of possibilities, assuming we’re all intelligent enough to not worry about the extremes or headline them to scare each other.
This is extremely improbable because the trends in infection and in hospital admissions are largely flat after a wee ‘surge’ on June 23rd:
Let’s see if the ‘record’ of over 3 000 turns out to have some backlog in it.
Desperate?
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
Forecast is indeed a wide range:
Click to access coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-57.pdf
Its seems we’ve no idea where we are in this.
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Yes
wonder
why
they
did
it?
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Thanks for providing this. It is a very sophisticated statistical analysis and one which has been going on for a considerable period – this is number 57. It is on sophisticated and nuanced data such as these that policy decisions are based.
What the Herod has done, as the media always do is to choose one of the two extremes to support their prejudices: hate Scotland/SNP/SG, choose the worst; Bozza, Bozza, Bozza, Tories are wonderful, choose the best.
Of course, Good Morning Scotland used the worst case, quoting the Herod, in the interview with Humza Yusaf.
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An exaggeration at best, BritNat wishful thinking at worst , and a scare story, they need clickbait. The BritNats will be praying for such a scenario, then they can further politicise the pandemic in Scotland.
Delta variant is now prevalent in the UK, it is 64% more transmissable.
I am sure I heard Dr. Susan Oliver in discussion with Dr Campbell, a couple of days ago, say someone became infected after 10 seconds of contact with an infected person, very scary if so. The numbers will keep going up, the UK is in a dire situation, and the Scottish government have a lot on their plate to say the least. The media, so called, are a hindrance to progress, a barrier to intelligent discussion, and a danger to the people of Scotland in their constant misinformation and lies. They should be thoroughly ashamed, but they are funded by the BritNat regime to cause as much damage to the democratically elected government in Scotland no matter the cost to lives or livelihoods. It’s a war against the Scottish government, and a war on the people of Scotland and it’s despicable.
Thanks John, for calling out the BritNat attacks on Scotland’s democracy and the people’s democratic rights.
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“Let’s see if the ‘record’ of over 3 000 turns out to have some backlog in it.
I’ve noticed for quite a few days now that the distribution of the daily number by Specimen Date gives a different result.
What on earth is going on with the data? It must be really difficult to plan when you don’t have accurate figures – and there seems to have been “a problem” for a while now.
If my mind wanders towards deliberate confusion, do I need a foil hat?
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Since last Friday the daily data on case numbers published by Public Health Scotland has carried the caveat that the Lighthouse lab in Glasgow has been having problems – unspecified – and this has affected the data on case numbers.
Not what you want when you are tracking a new, more transmissible variant.
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The Lighthouse Lab seems to have been beset by problems since the beginning. Usually at the most inopportune moments…
“Not what you want when you are tracking a new, more transmissible variant.”
Quite…
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I’ll take the FM’s perspective over that of McArdle any day of the week, this for instance https://mobile.twitter.com/scotgov/status/1409564754843107330
SG are clearly concerned by rising case numbers as rules relax and summer visitors beckon, but even with accelerated vaccinations there may still be bumpy times ahead, not from what WE are doing but what happens in England.
Even if the Herald leapt at the worst case scenario from modellers, I’d be highly sceptical all the stars will align for it in reality.
It is the political chicanery of England which concerns me most, test and trace, fiddling figures, and a less controlled populace have been our Achilles heel throughout, who knows what variant will next call from across the border.
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