SAGE has released the latest estimate of the R number for England and put it between 0.7 and 1, up from 0.5 to 0.9 last week.

The lower figure was, of course, the basis for the PM’s schoolboy leap toward a loosening of the lock-down for England. This worsening of the situation after only 4 days of official loosening may have been due, also, to higher levels of rejection of the lock-down rules by people in English cities in the previous weeks:

The impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on Scottish cities has been larger than similar sized places across the UK, according to data from tech firms. Experts say that data harvested from people’s mobile phones show that city centre activity in Scotland’s largest cities started to decline two weeks before the official lockdown began.