New coronavirus cases fall for third day in a row but ‘soar’ in the Herald

There were 307 new cases in the last 24 hours, 354 in the 24 hours below that and 390 before that.

In the same article, the Herald reports:

‘Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland’s lockdown restrictions have resulted in a slowing down in the rate of community transmission of Covid-19. That slowdown seems to be reflected in the stabilisation of numbers admitted to hospital and intensive care, she said.’

That’s looking like a downward trend. Maybe you want to leave it for 5 days before you’re sure but you’d have to be pretty dumb to think ‘soar’ was a good word to use here.

The number of deaths was also down from 80 to 58, not evidence of any consistent fall but equally not evidence that deaths are likely to soar either and, most encouragingly, reinforcing the evidence that this is under control:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

The above graph does not yet have today’s figures added but they will further extend the green line, to eight days in which we have been moving away from the runaway stage. More:

‘We can look at how fast the deaths are doubling to get an idea of where we are. If they’re still doubling every 3 days or less, then we’re still in the runaway stage of the pandemic, which is bad! They would need to be doubling around every 30 days or more before we could think about getting back to normal.’

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

6 thoughts on “New coronavirus cases fall for third day in a row but ‘soar’ in the Herald”

  2. Oh!! Awful.

    “Anthony Costello
    @globalhlthtwit
    ·
    17h
    Message from a public health doctor this evening.
    1. Anthony, are you aware how badly the NHS and PHE are implementing increased testing promised to care homes? I’m loath to criticise unecessarily but conditions in these homes are really, really bad. (1)”

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  3. Modelling blind? Somebody should tell The Herald.

    Dr Phil Hammond
    @drphilhammond
    ·
    2h
    This is a clear indication that the government’s policy is still managed herd immunity. They need to be honest with us, and they need to start urgently collecting more data to see if it’s working, or if we need to change direction. Otherwise we are just modelling blind.
    Quote Tweet

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil
    · 4h
    Around 15,000 people a day are still flying into the UK. Their medical condition is not checked on arrival. That’s the equivalent of 105,000 passengers a week, including those with serious Covid-19 outbreaks, like the US, China, Spain and Italy.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply

  5. If the headline next to the photo at the top is from the Herald then it’s an absolute disgrace. It’s super sensationalising by mixing deaths and case numbers in the same sentence.
    Do none of these rags have any sense of responsibility or ambition to deliver truthful news? I despair of them.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.