Based on 158 adults living in Scotland with fieldwork on 31 October to 1 November:
- Con 22%
- Lab 15%
- DimLeb 10%
- SNP 50%
- Brexit 1%
- Green 2%
There have been a few recent sub-polls suggesting SNP support lower and I’ve commented on the quite consistent patterning across the pollsters. Small sub-polls are, of course, quite unreliable on their own but when a pollster gets the same figure over many sub-polls then they start to mean something. Typically, YouGov places the SNP support higher, average 43%, and they’ve done many more (19) polls since 1st June 2019. Further, YouGov has not shown the apparent dip in recent weeks.
I’m neither competent nor do I have the time or energy to get into the details of the sampling done by each pollster but perhaps some are biased toward older or more affluent groups typically less supportive of the SNP and more so of the Tories?
Footnote: On the question: ‘Britain is a country where the system is rigged in favour of the rich, and ordinary people don’t get a fair chance’, 59% of the Scots respondents agreed, compared to 43-44% across England outside of the North.
Footnote2: On the question: ‘Do you think the next government should or should not allow a new referendum on whether Scotland should become a independent country?’ 50% of the Scots agreed as against 39% who disagreed. Take out the 10% don’t knows and that gives a clear majority of 56% in support.