Approach with caution – Mark Smith’s ‘new’ made-up crime stats

I haven’t bothered with the The Herald’s Mark Smith for years now.

In 2022, I wrote ‘Herald’s Mark Smith does a Ross Kemp and gets out of Holyrood before a few elderly feminists ‘kick off’ and thrust their merkins at him,’ but have not looked for fear of upsetting myself. It’s at: https://talkingupscotlandtwo.com/2022/12/26/heralds-mark-smith-does-a-ross-kemp-and-gets-out-of-holyrood-before-a-few-elderly-feminists-kick-off-and-thrust-their-merkins-at-him/

Approach with caution.

Today, we have another of his biographical proud diversions in an attempt to seem clever:

It is a constant disappointment to my parents that, despite the fact I spent four years studying law and earned the right to put LLB Hons (First Class) after my name, 30 years on here I am sat [sitting!] writing an article for you [few] guys rather than standing up with a horsehair wig on my head earning a lot more money. But I’ve no regrets: law was a wonderful subject to study and although most of the details have flitted from my head, one or two are still there. Such as ignorantia juris neminem excusat (which I’ve tried to get round a few times) and one other little nugget from criminology I want to tell you about that has sometimes come in handy in journalism.

It is no surprise really that it’s criminology that has stuck in my head the most after all this time because it was always my favourite subject – certainly preferable to Roman Law (what is the law on slaves?) or Delict (what is the law if you find a slug in your beer in Paisley?) or Jurisprudence (what is law anyway?) Most of my studies focused on what the statutes said and what happened if you disobeyed them, but criminology looked at the whys, and it was particularly interesting on the subject of the way we look at crime, and more importantly how we feel about it.

and then taking all the air out of that, this:

From Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2025-26, 23 June 2026, this is what is published:

He’s had to consult the data tables, I’m guessing, for his dramatically darker figures. How well has he managed this?

Not very well, badly, really.

Here are the data from: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2026/06/recorded-crime-scotland-2025-26/documents/recorded-crime-in-scotland-2025-26-tables/recorded-crime-in-scotland-2025-26-tables/govscot%3Adocument/Recorded%2BCrime%2Bin%2BScotland%2B2025-26%2Btables.xlsx

Leaving aside the limited value of one year variations, that after all that study, he should knows to ignore, he gets even those wrong.

  • Murder and culpable homicide, he says up 40% but the data say 25% in the last year and down 15% since 10 years ago.
  • Shoplifting up 20% he says but up 19% in the last year and up 86% since 10 years ago.
  • Domestic abuse up 19% he says but 23% they say in the last year.
  • Assault 7 up he says bit 6 or 8 they say.
  • Sexual crimes up 9% but up only 2 or 11 depending on which, they say.

Maybe if he ever listed his sources, we could help him do better?


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