When crime is falling, is declining trust in police force due just to fewer arrests or ‘treating Nicola Sturgeon like Fred West’

What’s the basis for the above warning? This:

Are fewer arrests in one year good evidence of why trust in the police might be falling?

Might there be another reason for falling arrests, such as reducing crime?

See this:

From Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2025-26 https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2025-26/documents/

The table from which I’ve extracted the above is huge. I’ll be accused of selective bias but I feel sure my selection, leaving in increases in sexual assaults and rape, concentrates on the offences that most disturb us, including serious violence.

One-year variations, though loved by journalists and, sometimes by senior police officers, naturally pushing for more resources but not always that clued-up or bothered much by statistical meaningfulness, tell us little, but comparing 5 year averages trends can.

Looking at the right-hand column above, you’ll see overall crime falling and some time-consuming offences such as drug possession, serious assault and attempted murder, and housebreaking, falling by very large numbers.

Hey, could that be why there are fewer arrests? There are fewer offences? Too obvious?

What about this?

Might the 40% or so who vote SNP be pissed off with Police Scotland on this?


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8 thoughts on “When crime is falling, is declining trust in police force due just to fewer arrests or ‘treating Nicola Sturgeon like Fred West’

  1. It is amazing how the Herald “journalists” think that readers will flock back to them with such poor analysis of the situation – or perhaps they should stop trying to hoodwink what is left of their readers.

    Anyone had a chance to count the number of “Nicola Sturgeon” articles on todays On Line version? We could use it as a measure of the Heralds desperation in the weeks ahead! 🙂

    Stephen McKenzie

    Liked by 1 person

    1. There are quite a few articles on Mss Sturgeon in the Herald’s print version as well. Kevin McKenna has a column on her in today’s Herald as well.

      Like

  2. Also according to the not so ‘Scottish’ Daily Mail “The Peter Murrell scandal is set to be investigated by peers in the House of Lords, the Mail can reveal”.

    That’s an investigation by Peers who are not members of the SNP party, who are all mostly non Scottish Peers or House Jocks and so are, by a majority , pro UK Peers and so then they all are (except the 2 Green Peers) anti Scottish independence unelected bureaucrats within the HOL’s.

    So what or rather who prompted this ?

    Well Jack McConnell had initially called for a joint inquiry between a Scottish Parliament committee and its counterpart in Westminster.

    So I suspect that he is (heavily) involved in driving this ‘investigation’ within the HOL’s , mainly because his previous suggestion (above) was (rightly) rejected by the SNP.

    Peter Murrrell was investigated , tried in a court of Law , convicted and jailed for five years , post a very expensive and intensive Police Scotland investigation , so what is the real purpose behind the HOL’s extending this matter via their so called and supposed ‘investigation’?

    Who is it that they , the HOL’s and indeed Jack McConnell, really wants to see being punished and damaged both politically as a party and also personally as individuals within the SNP ?

    So the HOL’s are now supposed virtue warriors, yet I read that:

    “The House of Lords standards watchdog has not announced a single, overarching parliamentary committee investigation into all VIP lane contracts”.

    According to Labour MP Angela Rayner “The VIP lane scandal saw billions of taxpayers’ money handed to Conservative cronies“.

    Also in 2025 the Byline Times wrote that there were indeed Peers involved in this PPE VIP fast Lane scandal , i.e. members of the HOL’s.

    Lord Chadlington: was “investigated multiple times by the Lords standards watchdog over referrals he made for pandemic contracts, leading to findings that he breached the code of conduct”. (he has now ‘retired’ from the HOL’s).

    Lord Agnew: Former Treasury and Cabinet Office minister who referred multiple suppliers onto the high-priority channel. ( he is still a member of the HOL’s)

    Lord Deighton: Former Commercial Secretary to the Treasury, who also referred a significant number of suppliers. (he is still a member of the HOL’s).

    Lord Feldman: Conservative peer and former party chairman linked to multiple high-priority referrals. (he is noted as “currently -being – on leave of absence from the House of Lords in his entry in the UK parliament site)

    Baroness (Michelle) Mone: Connected to the referral of PPE Medpro, a firm that secured £200 million in government contracts for surgical gowns shortly after being established. (she is also noted as currently- being – on leave of absence from the House of Lords”).

    The Good Law project wrote this below , in November 2021, in an online article:

    “A leaked document has revealed which Conservative MPs and Peers funnelled companies through a ‘VIP lane’ for lucrative PPE contracts, without competition. A staggering £1.6 billion worth of contracts were awarded as a result of referrals from just ten politicians at the heart of the Conservative party”.

    “Michael Gove MP, Matt Hancock MP, Esther McVey MP, and Steve Brine MP are among the Conservative politicians who referred companies to the VIP lane”.

    The “House of Lords had been noted as having had heavy representation in the referrals of these alleged dodgy (PPE) contracts, yet somehow the HOL’s has not sought to ‘put it’s own house in order’ nor seek to investigate the Tory party , in them, the HOL’s, seeking to hold an inquiry post this scandal into the awarding of the (alleged) very dodgy Tory VIP Fast lane contracts.

    That is they , the HOL’s, seem to be not so keen to have a further investigation , in the same way that they have been (too) quick to want to hold an inquiry into the Murrell scandal – or rather one that they prefer to file under ‘SNP SCANDAL’.

    Unelected bureaucrats who think that they can further ‘muddy the waters’ while historically they themselves are not so ‘clean’.

    Cash for Honours (2006-2007) – “A political controversy over whether life peerages were promised or awarded in exchange for large financial loans and political donations to major parties”.

    Parliamentary expenses scandal (2009) – “multiple peers faced suspension or criminal prosecution (such as Lord Taylor of Warwick) for falsely claiming thousands of pounds in allowances”.

    Labour Lord Sewell’s resignation (2015) – “The Chairman of Committees resigned after tabloid footage showed him using illegal drugs and consorting with sex workers”

    Note the above is not an exhaustive list of scandals linked to Peers in the HOL’s.

    So really they, the HOL’s, can stick their ‘investigation’ aka pro UK SNP witch hunt where the sun does not shine,.

    As it is blatantly obvious that the real purpose behind this so called HOL’s ‘inquiry’ into the Murrell scandal is that it is not an inquiry that has been prompted by best intentions, but instead it is obviously one that is prompted by politically partisan bad intentions full of political malicious intent.

    That is for them it is an another excuse to declare #SNPBAD.

    Liz S

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Thanks Liz. Looks as if the HOLs are attempting to distract from their own corrupt highly paid members of the club.
      Sounds like a witch hunt against the man locked up for years for embezzelling less than half a million pounds, (do we know what he did do with the £s?) and no doubt to further damage Nicola Sturgeon’s reputation and or chances of returning to the political sphere, they know she has a good reputation abroad etc.
      Into the mix as you say will be SNP bad, the English British nationalist establishment really want to be rid of the SNP, so will ensure max damage via their fascist ‘media’.
      Whatever the motives it sounds really quite sinister, unnecessary and another waste of public money while they members of the elite club take £300++ a day from the public purse. All happening on Burnham’s watch, hmm .

      Like

  3. Good morning John {Just}

    The Sunday Post February 5 2006 ,I came across this article that I must have put aside.

    Labour’s oil lies made democracy a joke very interesting read so if you or anyone else could find it and show it here just shows that Lab has not changed.

    I am sure someone could trace this article as it is above this 88 year old grade.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. The usual claims by reactionaries and the media and teacher unions if crime is falling or the conduct of schoolchildren is improving is that what we see is ‘just the tip of the iceberg’ or that ‘people have stopped reporting crimes and misdemeanors because NOTHING IS EVER DONE’.

    if you seek evidence the reply is ‘everybody knows that.’

    Like

  5. Read this via an online ‘X’ account that I often read.

    The account is James Foster’s account ( previously he supported Jeremy Corbyn and now supports the Green party under Zach Polanski).

    He wrote this (spot on) post below in respect to the announcement of Andy Burnham doing a UK cost of living Tour this week:

    Why does @AndyBurnham need to tour the country to discover that the cost of living is too high, people are keeping less and less of their own money, high streets have been decimated, rents are through the roof, social housing is in desperately short supply, and inequality continues to grow?”

    “None of this is a revelation. These problems have been documented relentlessly for years by official statistics, councils, charities, economists, researchers and, most importantly, the people living through them. On and on and on it goes”.

    “Do we really need another politician touring the country to “listen” to people tell him what the data already makes abundantly clear? People don’t need another listening tour”

    “They need action”.

    “If you’re serious about tackling inequality, housing, declining living standards and the collapse of our high streets, the question isn’t what’s the problem? Because we already know. The question is: what are you actually going to do about it “?

    Now James Foster lives in England and much of his observations in his above post are said by him in relation to the dire state within England, which is controlled by various UK governments, including Andy Burnham’s Labour party as the current UK government.

    Though Scots have also been negatively impacted too , based on both the (too many) cruel decisions being made by various UK governments and also the lack of action via various UK governments as well, especially in respect to what has been a cost of living crisis since the time the Tory party were previously in charge of the UK State.

    We all surely remember the time when Keir Starmer was once the Labour official opposition leader .

    As the official opposition leader Starmer constantly decried the Tory UK government’s lack of effort and action upon the UK cost of living crisis.

    Indeed Starmer declared that Labour would fix that crisis and so then ease the financial burden being suffered by the public within the UK, if a Labour government were elected in the next UK GE.

    Yet hear we now are with a new Labour government since Labour won the GE in 2024, and now Labour are under a new leader/ PM , as the previous one was a total fraud and dud.

    But what have they, Labour, really done that is truly significant in relation to the cost of living crisis ?

    Well there has been nowt hugely significant that has truly helped ease the financial burdens being suffered by the (ordinary) people of their UK State.

    Now Burnham’s tiny effort on ‘energy’ prices was more fanfare than substance , as he has only introduced “a temporary cut of VAT on household electricity bills from 5% to 0%, running for six months from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027″.

    Not so much a real “breathing space” for us the public, more really where it seem that (way too) soon we will all be once again gasping for some respite from the high cost of living within their UK State.

    The Guardian newspaper wrote of this that:

    “Critics and analysts argue this is not a true solution to energy poverty because the savings are small and do not cover gas bills”.

    Andy Burnham seems far more concerned with promoting his own brand in endless TikTok videos on social media (Style over substance) than being the serious leader (with serious solutions) that most voters need and want.

    Of course this supposed UK ‘listening’ tour by Burnham is , I am sure, only dependent on what ‘Burnham himself wants to listen to and so then respond to’ , that means the chances are Andy Burnham will probably be tone deaf to what we in Scotland actually want and also to what we really need.

    That’s because UK PM’s love to tell Scots what they think it is that we need and want (which is, via a majority of Scots , usually the opposite of our real needs and actual wants).

    So when he is in Scotland , his (supposed) ‘UK cost of living ‘listening’ tour’, should be , for starters, about him doing something in changing as in reversing the situation where Scotland has some of the highest daily electricity standing charges in Great Britain.

    I will not hold my breath on that being altered as a situation, as it seems that we Scots are not allowed to be seen to have something that people in some other UK areas (mainly in the South of England) currently have as a more positive situation (via UK governments).

    I think this so called ‘King of the North’ will eventually be deposed , just as so many others in his same position have previously been dumped , as they too were eventually all seen as being useless aka Duds.

    As so far all Burnham seems to be , as the new UK PM , is an even worse version of Starmer , one could even say that he is a (bad) continuity Starmer, though he is desperately pretending that he is somehow a change from the previous boss ,though his intended actions do resemble those of the old boss .

    Let’s hope that his visit to Scotland is a tiny and so very fleeting part of his UK whistle – stop- tour (which let’s be honest is usually always the case with any UK PM coming up here to Scotland.)

    Liz S

    Like

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