officers is raising concerns about the early release of hundreds of prisoners over the past two years. The early release scheme has been prompted by concerns over prison overcrowding and does not include prisoners convicted of sexual offences or domestic abuse. In a speech to the association of Scottish Police Superintendents, Rob Hay will say sentences must reflect the severity of crimes. The Scottish Government has been approached for comment.

NOTE - This is a Reporting Scotland team special not on their website at all so fed to them by opposition parties.

We are talking about criminals released early into communities and we know the recidivism takes place and the policing has to be there for communities to pick up the pieces when that happens.

BBC Scotland, this morning, in their we insert to BBC Breakfast with another of their not -very-informative pieces designed to suggest all is not well with a Scottish Government initiative, the day before two by-elections.

How so?

Carefully, explicitly, they mention the Scottish Government so that all are reminded of who would be to blame for this senior officer’s concerns, were they evidence-based.

He does just what you would expect him to do, in the interests of his officers and with no concern for wider accuracy in what he claims and what he and BBC Scotland, a taxpayer-funded public service broadcaster with a charter to inform, don’t tell us.

What don’t they tell us?

First, that ‘recidivism’, re-offending:

The return-to-custody rate [not just re-offending but also breaching licence conditions] for the early 2025 tranche was only 5%. This was based on a Scotsman newspaper report¹ as official data are not yet published.

The kinds of re-offending breakdown is not yet available from the 2025 tranche but for the late 2024 group of 477, 20 did commit ‘crimes of violence.’² Remember sex and/or domestic violence offenders are not released early.

Direct comparison with England is difficult but the re-offending rate there seems to be between 26% and 38% ³ perhaps the reflecting the better staffing ratios in Scotland and the opportunities that offers for rehabilitation:

Sources:

1. https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/one-in-eight-prisoners-released-early-in-scotland-expected-to-end-up-back-behind-bars-5396659
2. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13917623/Dozens-thugs-freed-strike-soft-touch-SNP-scheme-tackle-prison-overcrowding.html
3. https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2024-09-02/HL610/

The prisoner-to-prison officer ratio in England, is approximately 3.7:1 as of mid-2025: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2023/prisons

In Scotland, it’s 1.7:1, thus more than twice as well-staffed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd7rv9yx0x9o

Click to access SPS_Annual_Report_and_Accounts_2024-25.pdf

Second, the ‘policing having to be there?‘

From Statistics on policing published in May 2026:

There were 16,430 full-time equivalent (FTE) police officers in Scotland on 31 March 2026. This was 196 (+1.2%) more officers compared to the position on 31 March 2007.

As staffing levels have been maintained how has the level of crime faced by these officers changed?

• Total recorded crime in Scotland was about 419,257 in 2006/07. By the year ending December 2025 it was 308,532, down 26% https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com.
• Violent crime peaked around the mid-2000s. Official Scottish Government analysis says violent crime in 2024/25 remained 23% below the 2006/07 peak. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
• Homicides have dropped dramatically. Scotland had 159 homicides in 2006/07 versus around 45–47 recently — among the lowest levels recorded in decades. https://www.gov.scot/publications/recorded-crime-scotland-2011-12/pages/7/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Compared with England?

Scotland has the highest ratio of police officers per 100 000 population – 295.

England and Wales forces have a lower combined ratio 235–241.

This means Scotland has roughly 25–27% more officers per capita than the England/Wales average.

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025/police-workforce-england-and-wales-30-september-2025
2. https://policepromotion.blog/2024/07/30/police-workforce-2024-part-1-officer-numbers-across-uk-and-ireland