Top story from BBC Scotland relating to two murders involving knives, last year.

The SNP minister described the murders of Kayden Moy, 16, and John McNab, 22, in Irvine and Edinburgh last year as “shocking” amid concerns over rising levels of knife possession among youths in Scotland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ly5720vzdo

There is evidence in police reporting of increased knife possession though we cannot be sure of the extent to which this is affected by increased police activity and/or new offences being added.

Either way, there are other very important developments relating to knife crime, being ignored here, but which offer us a fuller picture of the kind we need before making judgements.

Telling us a great deal about the nature of and actual risk-level within this increased reporting of possession:

From the Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report: February 2026, :

Fall in emergency hospital admissions due to assault since 2015-16. In 2024-25, there were 1,554 emergency hospital admissions due to assault, including 376 due to assault with a sharp object. These were, respectively, 36% and 33% lower than in 2015-16. https://www.gov.scot/publications/safer-communities-and-justice-statistics-monthly-data-report-february-2026/pages/statistics-on-community-safety/

What might explain this?

First, Murder by stabbing in Scotland has fallen in a steady trend to half of the level 6 years ago – From Knife crime statistics: FOI release, published today, we see that there were 49 homicides by knife in Scotland in 2017/2018 and that there has been a steady and significant fall to 25, in 2022/2023, the most recent data.¹

Second, ‘teens’ are dying in ever fewer numbers. The above victim was 15 years old. There are no data for 13-19 year-olds but there is typically only 1 homicide victim in the 5-15 age range per year and the greatest reduction has been amongst victims aged 16-24. In the five year period from 2004-05 to 2008-09, there were 125 victims in this age range. This dropped to 29 across the latest five years period from 2019-20 to 2023-24.²

Third, Glasgow – Glasgow City has witnessed a relatively larger fall in homicides than Scotland as a whole in the last 20 years. Over the latest five year period from 2019-20 to 2023-24, there have been 47 homicides in Glasgow, a 71% reduction compared to 162 for the five year period from 2004-05 to 2008-09. This compares to a 49% reduction in Scotland as a whole between these periods.²

Fourth knife possession – there is no epidemic (here) –

Chained to a Zombie Nation with 50* times more of these

BBC not reporting that knife possession in UK schools is 14 times higher per head of population than in Scottish ones

Finally, England and Wales – 94% increase in Police-recorded offences involving a knife or sharp instrument in the last 10 years. 55,008 Police-recorded offences involving a knife or sharp instrument.³ 

Sources:

1. https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202400427434/
2. https://www.gov.scot/publications/homicide-scotland-2023-24/pages/main-findings/
3. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/policeforceareadatatables