This yesterday, from the very new (March 2023) Election Predictor is a dramatic outlier prediction of a collapse in SNP Westminster support with:
Labour 27 seats (+26) SNP 20 seats (-28) Lib Dems 6 seats (+2) Conservatives 6 seats (no change).
On the same day, Polling UK had this:
51 SNP seats and a tiny handful of Labour (1), Con (3?) and LD (4?).
The most recent mainstream poll analysis from Electoral Calculus has the SNP at between 36 and 49 seats: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
So, who or what is Election Predictor and what are they up to?
It’s looking for patrons at https://www.patreon.com/ElectionPredictor?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=cre
but has none so far.
From the University of Oxford in 2021:
Social media manipulation by political actors an industrial scale problem – Oxford report
Cyber troops are frequently directly linked to state agencies. According to the report, ‘In 62 countries, we found evidence of a government agency using computational propaganda to shape public attitudes.’
Established political parties were also found to be using social media to ‘spread disinformation, suppress political participation, and undermine oppositional parties’, say the Oxford researchers.
According to the report, ‘In 61 countries, we found evidence of political parties or politicians running for office who have used the tools and techniques of computational propaganda as part of their political campaigns. Indeed, social media has become a critical component of digital campaigning.’
We found evidence of political parties or politicians running for office who have used the tools and techniques of computational propaganda as part of their political campaigns….social media has become a critical component of digital campaigning
Dr Bradshaw adds, ‘Cyber troop activity can look different in democracies compared to authoritarian regimes. Electoral authorities need to consider the broader ecosystem of disinformation and computational propaganda, including private firms and paid influencers, who are increasingly prominent actors in this space.’https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-01-13-social-media-manipulation-political-actors-industrial-scale-problem-oxford-report
Just because we’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get us.
One thought on “Is Election Predictor’s SNP collapse just ‘Cyber troop activity?’”
Why would Scotland suddenly vote for London Labour? I had a look at Chapter 8 of the Labour Party’s Commission on the UK’s Future which lists recommendations for a future Labour government with regard to devolution in Scotland. Parts of it could have been written by the Tories, and other parts by the SNP, particularly with regard to powers Anas Sarwar raised frequently in FMQT which Nicola Sturgeon pointed out were reserved. So I get the feeling Labour’s GE manifesto will include most, if not all, of them. It seems odd Labour would devolve more of the powers a future independent Scotland would need to have in place. It even hints of more powers in the ‘years’ to come which suggests there is a 10 year plan. Is Labour going down the Federal route, the Home Rule route, or facilitating independence? Time will tell, but something is afoot if the win a lot of Scottish seats.
Click to access Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf
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