Westminster SNP boost after ’14 police vans and 1 big tent?’

On December 2019, the SNP vote share was 45% yet in the 40 polls prior to that, not one reached 45% and many in the preceding 2 or 3 months failed to predict more than 39%.

In contrast, the Con and Labour predictions in the preceding 6 polls were mostly higher than their eventual share of 25.1% and 18.6%.

Might a similar thing be happening now, as the last 20 or so polls have the SNP at best 40% and often less than that?

Today Polling UK, using a different methodology from all of the other pollsters, reports the above virtual wipe-out with the SNP at 51 Westminster seats, up 3.

These predictions come from Lean Tossup Projection who, in defending the accuracy of their polling, say:

Some critics have pointed to results where the LeanTossup model has Labour gains in some regions, but smaller Labour gains in others, compared to other models which show more of a  uniform swing throughout the country. The reason for this is because most other UK models utilize the concept of “Uniform National Swing”, the theory that if you take the difference between the current support level for one party, and their level of support in the last election, and then apply that swing evenly across the country, then you get the best approximation of what the end result will be. 

We here at LeanTossup believe that the concept of “Uniform National Swing” is outdated. This concept stems from decades of UK election night results in which the use of the swingometer, a pendulum represented by Big Ben’s clock face that shows the direction and magnitude of the swing to each party from the previous election. While that number is indeed useful, and unfortunately seldomly used outside of the UK, that number is averaged nationally. This is crucial, as many seats are above or below that average, and not all of them have the same magnitude or even direction of swing. In the 2019 election, Labour faced a swing against them of more than 20 points in several Northern “Leave” leaning seats, while facing much smaller swings against them in London and other Southern “Remain” leaning areas.


They make no reference to Scottish constituencies.

As has been often pointed out, I’m not a proper psephologist so cannot offer any convincing explanation but it is interesting isn’t it?


9 thoughts on “Westminster SNP boost after ’14 police vans and 1 big tent?’

  1. In 2015, SNP vote was 50% but most preceding polls were lower. Labour took 24.3% and Con 14.9% but most polls had them higher.

    In 2017 SNP did less well than polls, Labour and Cons did better than in most polls.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. How long will LeanTossup last as they are at present , not long I would say , the Westminster anti Scotland cabal will be working hard behind the scenes to ensure the core decision makers are replaced with people who know what British polling is all about.British polling is all about undermining public confidence in any model of government than British Westminster rule.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. James Cameron (1911-1985) a respected Anglo-Scottish journalist was invited by the BBC to review Scotland and independence.

    As you might expect from a London (though well travelled) scribe, he came to the predictable conclusion that without the support of “opinion formers”, the independence movement was doomed as a romantic spasm.

    There can be no doubt that “opinion formers” in Scotland (and the UK) are relentlessly and remorselessly opposed to Scottish independence, slewing, distorting, shaping the news to suit their agenda.

    In spite of this, the SNP are head and shoulders better supported than any other party. In the face of enormous of media bias and fake “promises”, they came within a hairs-breadth of attaining self-governance.
    I have no doubt that the security services have added to their recent woes, and things came to the fore just when polling was regularly in favour of sovereignty. The IRA were infiltrated from top to bottom with spies and agents. Why would a pro-independence party which was close to ending London Rule be different.

    We must hold our nerve and while we can expect the worst, if serious charges are NOT brought, then the Scottish police and whoever is in control of them ( the Scottish legal eagles have recused themselves) will be in Big Trouble, not perhaps with a compliant and disgraceful media, but with the public!

    Liked by 2 people

  4. All will be well in our NHS, when run by the New model New Labour Party—did I say New?? But same old faces, scams and low IQ lobby dossers (with apologies to Bud).
    Big Jackie B is to solve all the problems at a local level by sacking all the local Health Boards and centralising everything under one big NHS Boss (Lard Ffoulksakia of Cumnocchio???) in Edinburgh………or is it London?

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Yep, when Labour were in power at Holyrood they were planning to close down the Western General hospital in Edinburgh, a majorly important hospital very close to the city, (my GP at the time told me that) so they started to close down parts of it, including a+e. Then they closed the royal infirmary and built a new hospital on the outskirts of the city, using PFI, plunging Scotland into £billions of debt still being paid to this day to private companies.
      In the run up to the next general election, SNP need to constantly remind people about just what Labour in Scotland legacy means even today. The damage they did, including sending £billions back to Westminster, and also people need reminding about what they did not do for the people of Scotland, not one good useful thing I can think of. It’s possible plenty people could well decide to vote for the Scottish branch office of Labour, mistakenly believing they’d be getting rid of the Tories! People have short memories, and need to be reminded about Labours treatment of women workers in Glasgow etc, it all has a knock on effect now and they would do the same again. A leopard never changes its spots, and they’d destroy Scotland as punishment for ousting them past fifteen years or so, be in no doubt at all.

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Since you mention the role of M. I. 5 in N. I. let’s not forget the Willie MacRae suspicions.
        Is it too much of a stretch to suppose that the serial breakdowns in the Calmac fleet are not down to bad luck but to third party sabotage?
        The SG and in particular, the SNP take the flak.
        Propoganda is not solely by means of the written word.
        Perhaps Calmac should be doing some personnel scrutiny.

        Liked by 1 person

  5. Well whatever is going on, the BritNat state is spooked. They just cannot afford to lose Scotland since their disastrous catastrophic Brexit, and their hopes of a trade deal with the US is likley to come to nothing. What is worrying is how far the British nationalist state will go to keep Scotland shackled. Minerals exploration is high on the agenda, Scotland’s geological make up is ripe for the picking and it’s already being explored. Saw there’s a big international energy conference/convention happening in Aberdeen in the summer/autumn, had book marked but can’t find it now. Shame Scotland’s resources are not really benefitting Scotland because the EngGov takes it all as a freebie. Depressing.

    Liked by 2 people

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