Two full polls: Why are only women sticking with the SNP?

Image: Reuters

My suggestions of an improving trend for the SNP in the last four polls by different pollsters has been deemed wrong. It seems you can only consider a trend revealed by successive polls from the same pollster.

I kind of get it, if you’re a bit anal, but the MSM do the same thing gaily if they think they’ve spotted a downward trend for the SNP.

Anyhow, I had a look back at the last two full polls by Survation on 17 February and 3 April 2023, well before the peak of the SNP leadership media coverage and just after it.

The data, weighted by likelihood to vote and with undecided and refused, removed, suggests a fall in SNP support from 42.64% to 40.25%. Mildly concerning but not surprising given the nature of change and the media frenzy.

However, something else jumped out at me.

Female support between the two polls had actually increased, ever so slightly and despite the negative media stories, from 44.89% to 45.30% while the male support had fallen markedly from 40.37% to 35.78%.

Is this to do with sex? I thought SNP supporting women were put off by the gender recognition reforms? No sign of that in these figures.

Why have some of the men, rather, been put off. Sex-related anxieties?

In pushing forty years in HE, I worked with and taught many gay and a few trans folk. Just like everybody else. Nothing to worry about.

Only one pollster. I’m off to try another.

I’ve done it quickly. Redfield and Wilton on 5 March and 1 April.

Female support up from 44% to 45% while male support falls from 36% to 31%

What’s happening brothers?

Footnote: Alba equally strong with men and women with 3 and 3.

9 thoughts on “Two full polls: Why are only women sticking with the SNP?

  1. Your figures here don’t surprise me , when you read the blogs and newspaper reader replies it’s all or nearly all men who seem to in a rage about gender recognition reforms I think it’s weird , are they just older men who are old fashioned with church taught ideas about men and women and the need to separate them from school age or are there other reasons

    Liked by 1 person

      1. More likely a mix in age really. Men will feel a bit threatened re their own masculinity possibly, and are more likely to be homophobic so will be anti trans too. The media dining out about the whole issue, has been a gift to them, a media frenzy about something which is actually not a threat, but having ALL of our rights removed by the Eng/Cabal, their anti protest laws, and the data giveaway that the EngGov/cabal are planning for us all. That’s what the ‘media’ don’t want men to be worried about, and women should just shut up, and stop standing up for yourselves thinking you can run a country lolz, (unless you are a Tory). It’s all becoming quite MAGA, this England controlled UknotOK.

        Worth mentioning the EngGov/cabals’ undermining of Scottish devolution, tapping into Scotland’s water, unless we secure independece first, the continuation of taking Scotland’s resources as freebies, oil, gas, renewables, high quality gold, anything they can get their dirty scheming lying paws on really. But no, trans rights taking our rights away! Whaaa!

        Propaganda works or the British Natz wouldn’t deploy it against the people of Scotland on a daily basis.

        Keep up the ‘propaganda’ John! It should have an effect, here’s hoping anyways! 🙂


  2. The gender reforms effect is vastly overblown, despite all the propaganda in media and some blogs, the vast majority of Scots simply don’t give a toss about it.
    These culture war tokens are an aspect the Tories are hoping to exploit to save themselves from annihilation at the next GE, so more dog-whistling to come.

    It is more likely to down to disenchantment with their financial lot, and rather than seeing SNP shouting what is wrong from the rooftops, they’re still waiting…

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Yep, people have other stuff to worry about, like how to pay their heating bills, (thank god it’s a bit warmer at the moment) how to replace broken/old essential items, some can’t afford food, in UknotOK, in 2023. It’s an absolute disgrace, but if you watch Democracy Now, and PBS Newshour and other US indy news etc, you can see where it’s all coming from, and how connected it is across the globe in fact. Scary times.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Almost every other nation in Europe is doing or is likely to do a similar GRR some considerably more drastic. The hysteria has migrated from the US to the UK. It is frankly a bit nuts especially considering the tiny portion of the population who are transgender and the simple fact that they are many more times likely to experience abuse than to abuse anyone else.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Agreed on the origins of the ‘culture war’, but the UK version of it was hijacked by the Tory 1930’s Germany propaganda strategy, amid increasing desperation to derail Indy.

        Despite years of propaganda from HMS James Cook et al over “the GRA”, that SG had been taken over by gender zealots and extremists, it failed to move the majority of Scots from not caring about the issue and trusting Holyrood to debate and deliver a sensible and democratic solution.

        Some will have been affected by the propaganda and fallen out with the SNP/Greens, but it remains a non-issue for the vast majority of Scots, as shown by recent polling on public concerns in Scotland (R&W).


  3. I always thought that was a silly rule although methodology does differ between polling companies. The best way to get a fairly accurate idea of what is happening in my experience is averaging the last 5 polls from whichever companies did them, which helps wipe out problems such as YouGov using 2014 voting in independence polls. It also helps adjust for temporary blips. The only time that is a problem is when companies decide to go many months between Scotland polls.


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