Enough reserves in UK [Scottish] North Sea for 30 years? Surely not, didn’t……

The above today but in 2019, from Professor Roy Thompson, of the University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences,:

And in August 2014, conveniently just before the referendum:

Did these earlier experts get the sack for being so wrong?

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10 thoughts on “Enough reserves in UK [Scottish] North Sea for 30 years? Surely not, didn’t……

  1. Ah, I see you have made the classic error of confusing UK Years with Scottish Years .
    As with dogs when one discusses OIL , OIL in UK Government hands lasts nine times that of OIL in an Independent Scotland’s hands . Simples !

    Liked by 2 people

  2. It’s a miracle of the new king’s doing, seems the old monarch wasn’t as well in with higher authority.

    Remember the Clair fields were hidden from us during the referendum.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. Not only are we now learning more about the true state of UK Continental Shelf reserves, we know the present value of tax revenue from the hydrocarbon industry to the Westminster government.

    Source: BBC News website (16 February. 2023) ‘What is the windfall tax on oil and gas companies?’

    We learn from the BBC of HM Treasury’s revenue forecast JUST from the windfall tax i.e. not including other taxes levied on oil companies: ‘MR HUNT SAID THE TAX WOULD RAISE £40BN OVER SIX YEARS.’

    That’s some asset to be able to call on in order to bail out a failing UK economy! Of course it’s an economy that for well over a decade now has been run by a Westminster government we in Scotland – where the bulk of the oil and much of the gas that enables this tax take comes from – by majority reject at election after election.

    The BBC article also reveals the shambles of UK tax policies more generally: ‘In recent years, such (tax) methods have meant that BP AND SHELL HAVE PAID ALMOST NO TAX IN THE UK.

    ‘BP and Shell BOTH RECEIVED MORE MONEY BACK FROM THE UK GOVERNMENT THAN THEY PAID EVERY YEAR FROM 2015 TO 2020 (except 2017, when Shell paid more than it received).

    For further context: since 30/8/21, the price of Brent crude has been ABOVE $73 US/ BARREL, reaching a peak price of $123 US. Since December 2004, the price has been ABOVE $40 US, except for two short periods in 2016 and 2020. So it’s continued to be a valuable asset!

    Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?op=1

    And finally, it’s always worth noting this. The value of Norway’s oil fund today stands at c. 13,922 BILLION NOK (c. £1,087 BILLION). The fund has generated AN ANNUAL RETURN to the people of Norway of 5.70% between 1 January 1998 and the end of 2022.

    And yet, as we have learned on TuS recently, the Westminster government DELAYS A CRUCIAL PUMP STORAGE PROJECT in Scotland; STILL FAILS TO SUPPORT SCOTLAND’S CCUS PROJECT (ACORN); but decides to TRANSMIT MUCH OF THE ELECTRICITY FROM OUR OFFSHORE WIND FARMS TO ENGLAND while charging us unnecessarily high electricity prices. What happened to ‘better together’?

    Liked by 2 people

  4. Ian Wood on Tele pre 2014 told us that oil would run out in 2019 with only 1.7 billion barrels left in the North Sea, conflated of course to include West of Shetland. Prior to that Ian Wood, before the Edinburgh Agreement was signed, Wood was touring schools advising kids on opting for a career in the oil industry.
    Ian Woods personal oil fund sitting at £1.5 billion, Scotland £Zero.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. ‘.. oil would run out in 2019’ Wow that’s a cracker! Wish I had a reference for that one.

      Candidly, I never heard or read Iain Wood or any others being quite so daft! I thought he was forecasting 15 years back in 2014 i.e. 9 years ago – and now we hear today it might be another 30 years!

      Liked by 2 people

      1. Might well have been for all the revenue Scotland has received from its own oil and gas, but your right his main contribution, and why he was wheeled in, was to undermine Alex Salmond’s pre referendum predictions on oil and gas production which was nearer ( If I remember correctly ) 25 or 26 billion barrels. 3 things stuck out for me on this issue was the massive variations from various sources on revenue generated, the OBR, which AS used as the basis for his predictions, promptly changed their review downwards which immediately became a negative story and lastly almost immediately a large number of rigs were put in storage so to speak. Almost as if they were trying to make a point.

        Liked by 1 person

    2. I remember seeing an advert for oil industry workers, they wanted young new talent, there was an event held in Newcastle to recruit people. That was in 2014, I might have the article somewhere, it was in a daily rag poss the Guardian. It takes a lot of cash and time to prospect for, and extract oil etc. The English government have known for years that there is tons of oil in Scottish waters. When they say 30 years, at least double that. Problem is, while Scotland would transition from fossil fuels, the English government are banking on it and have no intention of leaving it in the ground. I had a no voting friend who in 2014, said when I mentioned Scotland’s stolen oil, ‘aye but oils dirty’. Sigh.
      Of course also, when the subject of dirty oil comes up, it’s Scottish and in the eyes if the misinformed, it’s the Scottish government who are wrecking the planet by extracting it. They don’t seem to realise that countries with masses of oil, tend to be rich! What on Earth do people think Scotland has done with the £trillions of oil revenues, stashed it all away? Ignorance is a weapon, and the Brit state are experts at making sure to utilise that attribute to the full.
      Poor Scotland.


  5. The future is renewables. Much cheaper, greener than oil & Gas. Scotland is the best place in the world for renewables. The world is changing over. Massive investment in renewables. China & US etc. Only the Tories are wasting money on nuclear. Spending £13Billion a year on decommissioning Nuclear for ten years but planning to build more,

    Scotland has been denied monies for CCS. Scotland pays too much for the military and Trident. Loses £Billions on tax evasion. Losing £Billions on Brexit. etc. Monies which could be better spent. Paying back loan repayments on monies not borrowed or spent in Scotland. HS2 & Hinkley Point etc. A total waste of time and monies, Scotland in surplus in fuel and energy pays more.


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