The hard evidence that people are NOT dying because they are waiting longer in A&E

All over BBC Scotland, Sandesh Gulhane (Con) and Dr John-Paul Loughrey, of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine Scotland trade union, say the latest A&E delays are causing additional deaths in Scotland’s hospitals. Loughrey said they could lead to about 40 deaths in the following 30 days.

Loughrey must know this is not true while Gulhane, I feel sure, cares little for the truth.

Why is not true? A&E waiting times have been increasing for some time now yet hospital deaths have been falling.

Public Health Scotland publishes rolling monthly statements of hospital deaths within 30 days of admission, over the previous 12 months. Here are the most recent three:

  • April 2021 to March 2022 – 27 912 deaths
  • Jan 21 to Dec 21 – 28 365 deaths
  • Oct 20 to Sep 21   28 554 – deaths

So, if increasing delays were causing additional deaths we’d see that in the data above but, in fact, we see they are falling.

Why are delays not causing additional death? Here’s why.

There is no correlation between A&E waiting times and deaths as the ambulance prioritising system and the triage system in hospitals ensure that those at risk are cared for extremely quickly. At worst, delays result in longer waiting times only for those cases in which to do so is not life-threatening. The RCEM and Gulhane know this fine well.

8 thoughts on “The hard evidence that people are NOT dying because they are waiting longer in A&E

  1. Given the dire stats for A&E waits in England and in Wales, why are BBC England and BBC Wales not highlighting the “extra” deaths in these countries?
    Why hasn’t Dr Sandesh not been employed to install his “solutions” in NHS England?

    Liked by 4 people

    1. Surprisingly, on Good Morning Scotland, Martin Geissler challenged Dr Gulhane on these very points. Gulhane was nonplussed and began blustering and eventually took refuge in, “ We are in Scotland and we should focus on Scotland’s figures.”

      In the usual BBC Scotland ruse, Dr Loughrey was allowed an unchallenged rant, painting the dire picture of 40 ADDITIONAL DEATHS. This was stated as a FACT, not as a statistical inference, nor were we given what assumptions underpinned this. This was prior to the interview with Humza Yusaf, so that the framing of the interview had been set. Dr Gulhane was interviewed an hour later.

      Liked by 5 people




  3. When Gulhane swore the hypocritic oath to the Tory party it appears to have superseded his obligation under the hippocratic oath.

    As for John-Paul Loughrey abusing data which so far as I’m aware was entirely for England, it is not just naughty but bordering on unprofessional conduct – Given his willing support of Disaster Gulhane MSP Tsunami Baillie MSP and Lisa Winters BBC or even allowing them to misrepresent what the data actually says let alone verify it as impartial polled is beyond parody – It’s nuts, or as we know it Scotland a Juan.

    This could hardly be described as “Union” business rather than political activism, but that is for Loughrey’s membership to decide.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. I commented on the previous post re this about our direct experience of having to go to A&E just yesterday which was very busy, too busy really. One thing to add, those who were clearly in a life threatening situation were taken in immediately. The staff have to carefully assess those most in need of course and though awful if waiting while in pain or discomfort, if your life is in immediate danger, you are given appropriate medical attention. Had Labour been at the helm, I’m sure by now people would just about be being asked for their debit card first. If you ever need A&E, if you can call 111 first, they can assess you (lots of questions!) and pass on details to the deptartment before you get there. Obviously only appropriate in some cases.


  5. My D is an A&E child nurse. Only graduated last yr but has worked since covid Jan 2020. Says a lot of things would be better if GPs would stop sending kids to A&E with coughs etc. Had a man shouting in her face cos have to wait to have kids baby nappy rash seen to!
    At same time she spots a mum with a 6 week old baby turning blue & grabbed that child who technically ‘Died’ while this bloke was demanding to speak to a doctor. She got mum & baby to Resus & saved that baby’s life. Meanwhile angry man shouts he is leaving! So D got his childs name off the board & told him he was welcome to come back. The place is hoachin right now & they are short staffed due to illness & exhaustion. No one dies no one is left to die. Emergency cases seen first. If you can still moan about waiting, there nothing seriously wrong with you! Out of hours & GP or Minor injuries. folk call ambulances as cannot afford Taxi fare..or just do not care! I was seen at A&E minor injuries within 30 mins for ruptured calf muscle. I saw folk with no need to be there! There are jobs but the bean counters d not take on all the graduates. They get bonuses for ‘saving money’

    Liked by 1 person

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