There will be no tax exodus from Scotland

We’ve seen this before as the right-wing media try to undermine Scotland’s gradually improving, more progressive, tax regime.

In 2015, the Telegraph predicted an exodus of the wealthy and young and 2017, Border Region Tories predicted an exodus to England. I can find no subsequent hard evidence that this ever happened.

What is clear is this:

Figure 3.1 shows estimates of net migration between Scotland and rUK over the period 1951-52 to 2017-18[3]. During this period, Scotland changed from being a nation that typically experienced a net outflow of population to one where migration had a positive effect on population growth. Between 1951-52 and 2000-01, 399,000 more people left Scotland for other parts of the UK than moved to Scotland from rUK; since mid-2001, population flows from rUK have increased Scotland’s population by 137,000.

In the absence of UK research explaining internal migration, there is evidence from the US Treasury over the period 1999 to 2011. I appreciate that there are limits to such comparison but it remains of interest. There was virtually no correlation between income and migration rates, with middle-earners and the rich, both moving at a rate of around 2.4%. Of particular interest, it was the lower earners who were the most mobile at nearly twice that rate. Perhaps Scotland’s very low taxation of that group and greater access to affordable housing explains why we can staff our public services.


9 thoughts on “There will be no tax exodus from Scotland

  1. Oh how wrong they are but only in the direction such migration shall flow from and to whom when we a Independent Nation


  2. And Michael Blackley’s complete piffle get’s the promotion treatment on the BBC/Scotland’s “What the papers say” feature…


  3. The colonial media try-out of colonial memes for Scotland.

    In the “good-ol'” days of Britnat rule in Scotland, outward migration of our youth was 10”s of thousands every year.
    Now its not.

    As global warming hits, people will THRONG to cool, wet Auld Scotia, where we will can have showers daily and drinking water out the tap.
    People can work from home, and enjoy all the comforts of a human-friendly climate.

    After independence, we will have huge tax revenues from our oil, gas and renewables–as the EU and rUK fight to see who will be be our clients.

    If I become Chancellor of Scotland, I will tax heavily any newspaper printed outside our country. We dont want the Murdoch, Beaverbrook, Maxwell gutter tabloid industry norms in Scotland.
    When Chancellor, I will give substantial grants for a serious, independent, and free-thinking press industry, who meet the standards of ethical journalism.


  4. Oh I don’t know really, Effie Deans assures her followers on Twitter that she will be off as soon as independence is declared. Fair wind to her sails.


  5. The Scottish population has remained reality the same. 5million form 1900 to 2000. Dip 1950s (War?)

    It increased to 5.4million after Devolution. The only population decrease will be because of Brexit. UK Gov


  6. Some fool is claiming because Scotland got 8Billion covid reserve spending. That is a regular occurrence. Claiming £81Billion of spending. It was one year during the Covid epidemic. Scotland cannot borrow or could have borrowed it at cheaper rates.

    Take off the £3Billion Scotland pays on loans not borrowed or spent in Scotland (= £5Billion covid reserve spending). Scotland has to pay £1Billion more on Trident and redundant weaponry. Scotland cannot borrow £6Billion (1/10) to invest in the economy. It would pay in growth. Scotland loses £3Billion on tax evasion. Scotland pays £3Billion in debt repayment on monies not borrowed or spent in Scotland. Scotland loses £3Billion because of Brexit. Imposed by Westminster.

    Over £13Billion the so called deficit imposed by Westminster. It could be better spent. Scotland raises £66Billion but could raise £80Billion like Norway. That could be better spent. Independent.

    UK Gov Covid epidemic spending is £370Billion (over a lifetime) Whole UK Gov Accounts. 2019/20. Published June 2022. Internet.

    The equivalent for parity Scotland should be approx £37Billion. Scotland got £8Billion. That will be clawed back no doubt.


  7. Skilled workers are coming into Scotland all the time. Or going working overseas all the time. Skills and technology. The Oil industry. Provides jobs worldwide. The Oil sector is not being taxed properly. UK Gov incompetence. It should be taxed higher when prices and profits are higher. Lower when prices and profits are lower. UK Gov total incompetence and mismanagement. The tax revenues could go to keeping energy and fuel prices down. Lower petrol tax.



    Sent from my iPad



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