Updated: Everything consistently lower than in England except jags

For the last four days, the hospitalisation level in Scotland has been, pro-rata, around 12% higher in England.

The infection rate in England is also on average around 100% higher than in Scotland, over the last 7 days, although the data did converge in the last 24 hours.

The death rate, again converging in the last 24 hours, has been consistently around 25% higher in England for several months. Over the whole pandemic, 28.9% more have died, pro rata, in England.

On vaccination, Scotland continues to lead on all three, has done since November 2021 and is only approached by Wales on the third dose. Globally, on the third dose, Scotland is second only to Iceland (71%) with 61% completed.

Does that SNP Government deserve any credit? Imagine it was the opposite way round?

Update in light of comments from Alex and Stewartb:

  • In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) remained high in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 2,633,100 people in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 2,544,100 to 2,725,100), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
  • In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 139,000 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 119,800 to 159,300), equating to around 1 in 20 people.
  • In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased in the week ending 29 January 2022; we estimate that 136,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 118,200 to 155,200), equating to around 1 in 15 people.
  • In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 decreased in the two weeks up to 29 January 2022, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week; we estimate that 185,100 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 162,100 to 210,800), equating to around 1 in 30 people.


On this basis, infection level in England 50% higher?


7 thoughts on “Updated: Everything consistently lower than in England except jags

  1. All good apart from infection rate. Travellingtabby doesn’t include Scotland’s lft component which when added brings us up to about the same as England. England already includes lfts. Most reported cases in Scotland are now lfts. Scot gov is reporting about 8k a day. Coronavirus.data.gov.uk is reporting about 80k a day for England. As a confirmed n95 mask wearer I think we can’t afford to minimise.


    1. Do you place any credence on the ONS UK-wide infection survey results?

      Given the ways that other ‘official’ data sources are becoming mired in what is or not included in terms of types of test results, the (arguably) consistent, statistically robust ONS survey design may provide a more reliable data source when making comparative national/regional assessments.

      The latest ONS publication revealed that 1 in 30 people in the survey in Scotland are infected. By comparison, the equivalent figures are 1 in 20 in Wales and England, 1 in 15 in NI.

      Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

      Liked by 3 people

  2. I agree ONS data more consistent. 1/20 – 1/30 = 1/60. Scotland doing ~2% better but not 100% better.
    UK gov site is now useless for case comparisons across Nations but still quoted by FT and travelling tabby


    1. Now I’m confused! Let’s see if we can sort this.

      An infection rate of 1 in 30 equates to 3.3% of a population; 1 in 20 equates to 5.0%; 1 in 15 equates to 6.7% – just as 1 in a 100 would equate to 1%. Yes?

      The difference between 3.3% (Scotland) and 5.0% (England) is 1.7 percentage points. However, a rate of 3.3% (or 1 in 30) is c. 33% lower than a rate of 5% (1 in 20) – just as a rate of 50% would be half a rate of 100%. Yes?

      And if you accept the arithmetic, would you agree that a rate a THIRD LOWER makes for a substantial difference?

      Liked by 2 people

    2. Alex, having calculate the difference, correctly, as 1/60, your next step ought to have been to compare that 1/60 with the figure of 1/20 for England 1/60:1/20 = 1/3 = 33%.

      I agree with you that is important that irrespective of the relative situations in Scotland and England, we still have to be cautious about actions which might increase the rates of infection.


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