Why Scotland’s recent higher Covid numbers are evidence of a very good thing, Kirsty

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000xpcc/newsnight-09072021

Hearing the rumours of a Covid crisis in Scotland, Kirsty Wark and the Newsnight pack rushed to Glasgow to share their confusion with us. In a tale of surging numbers, higher than England, packed hospitals and sick young folk, they almost let Prof Bauld explain what had happened and presumably, had they, why it’s a good thing, a very good thing indeed.

Why is it a good thing?

Because it’s an effect of saving thousands of lives earlier.

How did we save those thousands of lives?

Well, Prof Bauld did get to say, explaining the surge in Scotland:

And then the final thing may be that earlier in the pandemic we had lower levels of infection.’

Prof Bauld didn’t get to point out that Scotland has only had 141.9 deaths per 100 000 population over the pandemic compared to 200.5 in England, because we had lower levels of infections overall.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

If we had experienced the same death rate as England, 33% more would have died.

We had 7 750 deaths. We would have had more than 10 000, around 2 580 more deaths, most in care homes.

Why did we have fewer deaths?

Because we had lower infection levels. Over the pandemic, we had 5 668 infections per 100 000 population. England had 7 805.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Why did we have lower infection levels?

Clear, consistent, empathetic messaging from the FM and thus higher compliance, quicker, targeted and more extended measures in hotspots, quicker roll-out of vaccines in care homes.

So, why the surge now?

Because we concentrated on protecting the most vulnerable and, inevitably given the supply quotas, took longer to vaccinate the younger population and because England’s less strict measures allowed the virus to spread more widely in January and that created more immunity among the population in England:

https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

We pay a price now but we saved thousands of lives in the process of getting here. The infection surge among the young now, will cost lives but far fewer than if we had acted differently. It is already flattening, well below that in England, in January.

We did well.

The FT knew this in February:

The BBC have clearly yet to get it or to want to get it.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is kirsty1.png

8 thoughts on “Why Scotland’s recent higher Covid numbers are evidence of a very good thing, Kirsty

  1. Your sign off “The BBC have clearly yet to get it or to want to get it” perfectly makes the point, negativity is all this “impartial” broadcaster will host, but it raises some interesting questions.

    Granted that many lives have been saved and infection levels kept lower in Scotland by better control and communication with the public, all by dint of SG departing from the London way, but there are HUGE problems for HMS Sarah Smith and the propagandists in how they report this now.
    – In recognising the higher levels of acquired immunity in England, they expose their collusion with #10 to obscure true levels of England’s infections and deaths.
    – In recognising the damage the variants have caused and are causing, they cannot ignore it’s inward pathway, England. The limited powers SG had to control that was turned into a political football rather than rational thinking, as recently exampled by the Burnham farce.
    – In recognising Scots’ compliance with the SG messaging, they expose their collusion to intercede by portraying Updates as political, in order that they could politicise it themselves with DRoss, Baillie et al.

    Liked by 6 people

  2. The BBC is a colonial broadcaster as far as Scotland is concerned.
    We read today of a BBC Board member, will close ties to Downing Street and the Tory party, attempting, for political reasons, to veto an appointment.
    Is there a member of the BBC Board with close ties to the SNP? Of course not.
    Nor are there any card-carrying SNP people RUNNING BBC Scotland, as the BBC is run by Tories these days.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Did you notice the disrespect in Warks voice when addressing Lesley and the difference in the tone used for Nelson it was obvious to me that having a pro independence person on really annoyed her.
    A small thing it was Lesley Riddoch except for once but only once did she say Fraser Nelson always Fraser with his not so Nairn voice I don’t know anyone from Nairn who speaks like that.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The answer is simple : Fraser is probably a regular dinner companion with Kirsty and the other London-centric elite who populate Kirtsy’s inner circle of acquaintances – that Riddoch woman from ”the North” is NOT !

      Like

  4. @john, I note today the Beeb Scotland web page promoting the NHS Tayside warning with the England “Covid to get worse before it gets better, doctors warn” story second, whilst the Politics page promotes “Covid in Scotland: Calls for Scotland to follow English travel rules” story with the Tayside story second.

    Why I noticed this was in your piece on the 10th on “Covid in Scotland: Calls for Scotland to follow English travel rules” it is clearly on the Scotland main page, yet despite scrolling to 3 pages down on that page there was no sign of it that I could see back to the 8th, hence they’ve disappeared it not demoted it…

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Whatever Boris Johnsons government does is forgivable though because they are the Union, respected revered refined and they control the treasury that pays the BBCs wages

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.