Updated: Regional variations suggests Alba may do better than zero

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/asr9w9z1bk/Times_Scotland_VI_210504_1stR_W.pdf

The YouGov data tables have just become available and they, unlike the others, break the support down into the regions.

So, Alba at 3% overall may be expected to get no seats if they get something like that in every region but in Mid-Scotland and Fife, this poll gives them 7% and the possibility of stealing one from the Lib Dems.

Also, a small new party’s actual strength on the day may be missed by a poll of only 1 144 people.

My own wee twitterpoll of admittedly limited reliability also suggests Alba might be a touch stronger than we imagine:

923 responses from 5 500 who follow me, mostly Independence supporters but not all SNP supporters, suggest far stronger support for Alba than any of the polls do. If they got that level of support on the day, they’d take 20 or so.

If the YouGov poll is correct, then voting SNP 1 Other 2 did make sense:

I wouldn’t put money on it, but Alba may still surprise us. Not by much perhaps but still a wee surprise.

In sharp contrast, Galloway’s All for Unity look lost in every corner of the country.

Update: The Survation poll data tables now published show possible support for Alba at up to 11% in Mid and North-East, 8-9% in three others.

Update: My twitterpoll now with 1 454 responses and still around 37% saying SNP 1 Alba 2.

17 thoughts on “Updated: Regional variations suggests Alba may do better than zero

      1. Tut tut iki – that’s baldist!

        He can’t help losing hair, and he wears a hat to protect the sensitive. Unfortunately he’s also lost count of the number of times he airs that, his face and his somewhat… er… unusual views to the unsuspecting public.

        Like

    1. Leah
      So did my wife and I
      Vote as you in Edinburgh Central
      And hope Angus takes Rooth the Mooth,s
      old seat

      Like

  1. In case folks haven’t twigged yet, Westminster is treating Scotland in the same way as Scotland’s political and legal class are treating women. Both denying recognition of natural rights guaranteed by international law. So I do hope Alba are able to gain at least one seat, which should hopefully enable them to inject a modicum of practical reason into the Scottish parliament, as far as women’s political and social rights are concerned anyway. Not forgetting Scotland’s constitutional future, which can not be left in the hands of English Torydum.

    Theoretical Perspectives on Gender and Development
    https://prd-idrc.azureedge.net/sites/default/files/openebooks/272-4/index.html

    Like

  2. Is there no concern with the record number of postal votes.
    Not too long ago a Judge compared the British Electoral system
    with a banana republic.

    England doesn’t want another Referendum, why wait to fight that when they could head it off with a bit of jiggery pokery at this election.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Turnout is much higher than 2016 in my local polling station. Seems to be about 15% higher. Had to force the ballot paper in as it was jammed up to the top.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. auldmarcia
      If this replicates nationwide then its a landslide indy majority
      All because traditionally it is the poorer Indy working class who do not turn up
      Whilst the hard unionists always vote

      Like

    2. We went around teatime and I noticed that the List votes were visible through the slot. So it must have been a higher turnout than usual. I’m hoping this is because we’ve acquired a new student hall since the last election. Don’t know how many are in residence, though.

      Asked one of the stewards and she said it’d been steady all day. there were other voters – though not a queue. This is unusual at the time we went normally.

      Like

  4. Just after 5pm BBC Radio based in Scotland reported that they have had a lot of notifications of dogs outside polling stations.

    Was this another attempt at voter suppression.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Mind you, I think Scotland will cope, whatever the outcome of this significant election. I’m certainly not the best informed and most up-to-date legally trained mind on the case, so I think I’ve reason to be confident that there are those who’s commitment to justice will manage to defend us all from the woo-woo.

    The Gender
    impact assessment
    and monitoring tool
    https://www.wecf.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/FINAL-GIM-Tool-Jan-19(dot)pdf

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  6. SNP/ALBA. Get on with the counting. For goodness sake. What is the result.

    The Tories crowing about one seat in England. Beyond ridiculous. Labour still have more council seats etc. The BBC doing its worst. Irrational. Starmer will have to go.
    Burnham being mentioned as leader.

    In Scotland a great Indy victory. Being played down. Not mentioned.

    Patel breaking the Law again. The nasty Party.

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  7. Whatever result Labour’s branch (twig) retains in the SG elections, Sarwar will be presiding over a party bleeding support before Indyref2 even hoves into view.
    The Hartlepool result is not just another nail in Labour’s coffin, it confirms an England moving ever further to the right and Labour losing relevance.

    Sarwar’s dogmatic Unionism is not only at odds with Labour’s founding principles (beyond Mark Drakeford in Wales you’d be hard pressed to find it in any beyond trite soundbites), yet he will continue to flog the dead horse of “Union solidarity” while the principle part of the Union itself rejects it ?

    When the Scottish twig inevitably breaks under the weight of Indyref, Sarwar and Murray will be left hanging by their fingernails…

    Like

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