92% of Scots ‘want’ a referendum this year!

In the Herald today:

THE MAJORITY of Scots who support holding another referendum want it to be held after the coronavirus pandemic is over, according to a new poll. The exclusive data, obtained by BMG Research for The Herald, also shows that even among independence supporters, the majority would favour waiting for the pandemic to subside (53 per cent) than hold a vote immediately (39%). 

39% want a referendum ‘immediately?’ Astounding!

53% ‘favour [just] waiting for the pandemic to subside?’ Wow!

Subside?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

So we’re just waiting for Moray’s Tory council to get its act together? The virus is well-under control everywhere else.

What does the PM say? I know, he’s still saying ‘no’ in principle but he’s also saying that, other than international travel and nightclubs we can expect to return to ‘some semblance of normality by June.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/boris-johnson-confirms-easing-of-england-lockdown-next-week

We’re having a democratic process with much postal voting now so as we approach 100% vaccination of the adult population and with infection levels, in WHO terms, suppressed, surely a wee independence referendum will be doable, this year?

12 thoughts on “92% of Scots ‘want’ a referendum this year!

  1. The nonsense Herald. Every headline a lying crisis. It really is quite shocking the garbage perpetuated. Nothing to do with reality or the experience of people’s lives.

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  2. O/T I received this e-mail alert from Energy Voice this morning:

    ‘The Oil Supercycle: Amid the talk of a looming oil supercycle, Energy Voice considers the prospect of a supply crunch, rising demand, and triple digit oil prices. 
     
    ‘Years of under-investment, exacerbated by the European supermajors going cold on oil, leaves the world could be (sic) on the cusp of an energy crisis. Simultaneously, peak demand remains some way off, as emerging markets continue to drive oil demand higher. This will see oil prices surge, catalysed by a broader commodities supercycle.’ 

    Is this an outlier forecast? On 8 April 2021 New York based financial analysts, The Balance had this in an online article entitled ‘Oil Price Forecast 2020-2050’:

    ‘The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) predicted that, by 2025, Brent crude oil’s nominal price will rise to $66/b. By 2030, world demand is seen driving Brent prices to $89/b. By 2040, prices are projected to be $132/b. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices will be $185/b, according to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook.’

    A recent graph published by Statista helps put this in a UK context. It reveals the fall over time of UK domestic oil production but also the relative stability over time of the UK’s demand for oil. The graph shows only a gradual reduction in demand, at least until to 2035.

    The widening gap between UK domestic production and domestic demand is very marked. Of course this translates into an increasing reliance on imported oil – arguably with less energy security and a negative impact on balance of trade – for the UK.

    Of course, the situation for an independent Scotland would be very different – in a situation with higher value, in demand commodities in which a ‘fair transition’ could be achieved potentially with little or no detriment to our economy.

    But would Westminster erect a punitive ‘trade border’ to stop the importation of Scotland’s oil post-independence …… and stop our natural gas, and our renewable electricity, and our food and drink ? Aye right!

    Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/749076/projected-uk-oil-production-demand/

    Liked by 1 person

    1. At this very moment Brent Crude is trading at $69.37. The biggest player in the North Sea is Harbour Energy who bought out some old Shell assets in 2017, then bought out ConocoPhillips UK assets and have recently completed a reverse takeover of Premier Oil (whose Catcher field lies in the 6500 square miles of our marine territory stolen by the British in 1999).

      Harbours production costs are approx £12, as in that’s what it costs them in total to produce and sell a barrel of oil for $69.37.

      Scotland’s oil resources are now being hoovered up and sold, not by large US oil companies, but by a London based Energy investment company, with taxes flowing into the UK Treasury.

      Colonial rape.

      Liked by 3 people

  3. The Westminster Treasury get half of Oil production, The rest is taxed at 20% corporation tax + 10% supplementary. Is it credited to Scotland? Over $60 is is profitable.

    If it was not produced it would have to be imported. Fracked gas is imported from the US, into Grangemouth. It is cheaper. The world is moving to renewables much cheaper and cleaner. Scotland is the best place in the world for renewables. Wind, wave, solar and hydro.

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    1. Hi Gordon, per my comment above we have long had misinformation on the costs of production in the North Sea, to undermine the economic case for independence, and your estimate of $60 for profit is not uncommon as the industry was very wasteful over the decades.

      But be assured the profit point is far, far lower now and Harbour Energy as an example are producing oil at $12 a barrel.

      That is a factual cost, and I know this is factual because the CEO of Harbour Energy (formerly Chrysaor) Phil Kirk announced it at the last company ‘town hall’ update. They also hedged their sales a couple of years ago at $62 so they sailed through the covid slump untouched.

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  4. I appreciate I’ve probably earned the rep of being a fan of lock-down, but I’m trained to priorities health security. So I’m glad that appears to have been addressed in Scotland, apart from our forced departure from the EU. So IMHO, we would be somewhat exceptional if we were to put democracy on hold for the foreseeable future. Though given parochial exceptionalism characterises Scottish politics, I wouldn’t put it past our political/legal Establishment.

    How to hold elections safely and democratically during the COVID-19 pandemic

    Click to access How-to-hold-elections-safely-democratically-Shape-the-Future.pdf

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  5. P.S. I appreciate we’re in the middle of a democratic election, though given the potential of Scotland’s democracy is principally defined by British nationalism and the politics of another nation, I strongly doubt the democratic credential of Scottish democracy.

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  6. O/T: more on the ‘benefits’ of Union this time for Scotland’s food & drinks industry as set out in a new Commons Committee report, a committee chaired by a Tory and whose membership has a Tory majority:

    Source: House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee (2021) Seafood and meat exports to the EU. (published 29 April) (https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/5701/documents/56231/default/ )

    Para 6: ‘The challenge facing British exporters has arguably been unique as they adapt to additional red tape following a trade deal. Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), told the BBC that whereas “all trade negotiations so far were about removing obstacles to trade”, in the case of Brexit it was “the other way round” as the UK and EU moved away from a situation where there was frictionless trade and instead “create[d] obstacles to trade”, something Mr Lamy described as “unprecedented”.

    The report includes this statement from the industry body Scotland Food & Drink (SF&D): “as an example of political mismanagement of expectations on the impact of a policy choice, this may have no parallel”, contending that there was a “FUNDAMENTAL LACK OF HONESTY” during the Transition Period on the “scale [of] non-tariff barriers”. (my emphasis)

    In its written evidence SF&D also states: ‘The decision of UK negotiators to oppose any alignment – or even equivalence – on standards between the GB and EU has been a hugely damaging error. Not only has it led to the imposition of Export Health Certificates and a ream of additional bureaucratic requirements, it has also led to the outright ban on some exports, such as seed potatoes.’

    SF&D also notes: “It is worth reminding ourselves that every single food and drink business in the UK is CURRENTLY ALIGNED with EU standards. Nothing changed on 1 January 2021. In addition, there is NO INDUSTRY DEMAND to reduce production standards. There is also NO EVIDENCE OF CONSUMER DESIRE to alter standards (indeed there is considerable resistance to such a move). Thirdly, the UK Government has COMMITTED NOT TO PURSUE any reduction of standards as part of trade deal with other countries. This leaves the question, whilst the damage of non-alignment has become crystal clear, WHAT IS THE BENEFIT? ‘

    In an annexe, this Commons, Tory-dominated Committee compares paperwork requirements and border checks for exporting meat from Great Britain to the European Union before and after 1 January 2021. I extract its findings below in full for effect only: it’s not necessary to delve into the detail to appreciate the absurdity of this outcome of Brexit!

    BEFORE: ‘Paperwork requirements and border checks for exporting meat from Great Britain to the European Union prior to 1 January:

    ‘The haulier loads the goods onto a truck along with a consignment note (CMR).’

    AFTER: ‘Paperwork requirements and border checks for exporting meat from Great Britain to the European Union since 1 January’:

    ‘Exporting business must have a GB Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number, and the premises must be listed an authorised establishment by the UK and EU. Product has a GB health identification mark

    1) The haulier is an authorised consignor who contacts the customer to arrange for the goods to arrive at an appropriate EU Border Control Post (BCP).
    2) The EU customer submits a Common Health Entry Document (CHED) at least 24 hours in advance of the arrival of the goods.
    3) The exporting business applies for an Export Health Certificate (EHC) via EHC Online. The EHC is sent to the exporting business’s nominated Certifying Officer in preparation for inspection.
    4) The certifying officer receives notification that the good are awaiting inspection, and prints out the EHC and supporting documents.
    5) The certifying officer inspects the goods and confirms that the EHC requirements and all details in the application are correct.
    6) The certifying officer stamps and signs each page of the EHC, including the versions translated into the language of the EU BCP and (if different) the destination country, and gives the EHC to the exporting business.
    7) The exporting business scans the EHC and sends it to the customer, and gives the hard copy to the haulier transporting the goods.
    8) The EU customer uploads the scanned EHC to the EU’s Trade Control and Export System (TRACES-NT).
    9) The haulier moves the goods using transit/Common Transit Convention (CTC). They have a transit guarantee in place as they are providing transport in GB and the EU.
    10) The haulier pre-lodges a combined export, and safety and security declaration (EXS) on HM Revenue and Customs’ CHIEF (Customs Handling of Import and Export Freight) system, so generating an Export Accompanying Document (EAD). They also submit a transit declaration into the New Computerised Transit System (NCTS) and generate the Local Reference Number (LRN).
    11) NCTS validates and sets the Transit Accompanying Document (TAD) and the transit movement can start. The Movement Reference Number (MRN) is produced and the paper TAD and MRN is given to the haulier.
    12) The haulier holds an EU EORI number and has also made the Entry Summary Declaration (ENS) entry into e.g. the French Import Control System (within two hours of the arrival of the ferry).
    13) The haulier receives a Permission to Progress (P2P) departure message from CHIEF, telling him that the export has been discharged.
    14) Up until 20 April: for lorries travelling via the Port of Dover or the Eurotunnel, the haulier completed the ‘Check an HGV (C-HGV)’ and after being issued a Kent Access Permit (KAP), the lorry was green routed to set off for Dover. There is an ongoing requirement for a negative covid-19 test before a lorry driver can travel to or through certain EU countries.
    15) The lorry leaves for the border.
    16) At the EU Border Control Post, SPS checks are conducted. Checks can be:
    • A documentary check is an examination of official certifications, attestations and other commercial documents that are required to accompany a consignment.
    • An identity check entails the visual inspection of a consignment in order to verify its content and labelling corresponds to the information provided in accompanying documentation.
    • A physical check entails a check on the goods to verify that they are compliant with the sanitary and phytosanitary import requirements for the EU. This includes, as appropriate, checks on the consignment’s packaging, means of transport and labelling. Temperature sampling for analysis, laboratory testing or diagnosis may also be required.
    17) The BCP updates TRACES-NT with the outcome of the inspection of the meat, however approval by the UK Competent Authority is also required prior to release.
    18) Once the checks are completed, the EU customer emails the CHED issued by the BCP and the reference of the transit declaration to the transit office.
    19) The lorry leaves the BCP and the goods continue to the delivery address.
    20) The EU customer checks NCTS and sees that the office of transit function has been
    completed.
    21) The goods arrive at their destination within the EU.

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  7. So I’m afraid I’m highly skeptical that Scotland’s democracy is actually capable of supporting democracy, as I don’t consider Scotland’s submission to majoritarian and right-wing English nationalism is in any way compatible with substantive liberal constitutionalism.

    Neoliberalism as a class ideology; or, the political causes of the growth of inequalities
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17436985/

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