‘Those care homes that received discharges, actually had a lower rate of Covid!’

Coronavirus in Scotland: Care home deaths 'may be far higher' | Scotland |  The Times

By Alasdair Galloway:

Anas Sarwar claims that ““We should never have been sending Covid positive patients into care Homes. That didn’t require medical guidance that required common sense.”

Yet, Robert Cuffe, the BBC’s Head of Statistics, suggested in the last few days that those Care Homes that received discharges, actually had a lower rate of Covid.

But before proceeding to what might have been the more important factors, it is important to remember that the transfers took place at the time only after consultation between doctors and care Home management. Does Mr Sarwar believe he would have known better?

The major factors in Care Home outbreaks, according to Public Health Scotland, included the size of the Care Home. Perhaps this had something to do with the fact that a larger Care Home will have a larger staff? This is supported by the charitable Care Home owner MHA which found in a survey of their own Homes as early as June last year, that “42% of its staff members who recently tested positive were not displaying symptoms. Nearly 45% of residents who had a positive test were also asymptomatic.” The charity’s Chief Executive said: I think it’s very difficult not to see that the only real way that this can have come into our Homes is through staff picking it up, just through the community contacts”. What seems common sense is that larger Homes faced a larger problem due to a larger number of staff picking up the virus through normal community interactions.

In conclusion the general point in assessing Scotland’s Covid performance is that with our existing (poorer) health record and age profile (older than UK average) Covid rates and deaths should be worse in Scotland. However, they are not as Professor David Bell, David Eiser and David Phillips reported on 22nd April. In the first wave, excess deaths were substantially higher in England than in the devolved nations. In the second wave, Scotland did not see the same increase in excess deaths between mid-December and mid- February that was experienced to varying extents in the rest of the UK, particularly in England and Wales.

The First Minister has already said that mistakes have been made, and in this regard, Mr Sarwar got there second. However, the data shows that if “some serious mistakes” were made in Scotland, even more serious mistakes were made elsewhere in the Union that Anas Sarwar is determined to keep us in.

5 thoughts on “‘Those care homes that received discharges, actually had a lower rate of Covid!’

  1. I wish politicians wouldn’t use public health as a political football, especially in the face of a pandemic and in light of Brexit removing Scots from the legal protections of the EU. As that simply highlights they don’t understand how legal rights work, or they simply choose to ignore them, which is the British way after all.

    From the perspective of international human rights law, good public health is a human right. Democracy, human rights and the rule of law work as a tripod supporting civilization. Undermine one and they all collapse, and we’re back in the age of despotic tyrants.

    Health security as a public health concept: a critical analysis

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Very good Alisdair, but I would extend your point that the “disaster” was even harder felt in England and being diverted by Sarwar’s campaign as being at the direction of London.
    This is the only logical explanation for what has been a protracted campaign by Sarwar and the BBC in Scotland which few if any in Scotland give the slightest credibility, yet it rumbles on relentlessly.

    Sarwar has a history of seeking political gain by blatant dishonesty over tragic events, as true of his scurrilous campaign on “Milly Main” as “Covid v Care-Homes”, regularly and relentlessly promoted by the BBC in Scotland even to this day.

    At some point soon the true facts surrounding Covid and care-homes will be known and lessons learned, but what troubles me more is the broader aspect, that despite Tory and Liberal alike promoting the same lie, there is no punishment for them in Parliament itself or at the ballot box, the Untouchables….

    The promotion of the blatant BIG lie in UK politics and media has become normalised with no sign of remedy, it can only hoped one of the first orders of business for an Independent Scottish Government is to put an to end this scourge and outlaw it.

    If Sarwar (he’s almost certain to still be around) flouts Parliamentary obligation to honesty he is deselected for a month without pay, 3 strikes you’re out.
    If whatever Pacific Quay becomes breaches it’s broadcast obligations as to honesty and fairness it’s licence is revoked, ditto the Herald, etc., end the “Untouchables” culture.
    Doubtless there would be a rammy over freedom of speech, but requiring Scots to filter out the lies should not be the onus, they deserve so much better.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I noted that Sarwar in the BBC Debate did NOT continue his dishonest claim that HE had been warning about the release of patients to care homes – Ciaran Jenkins of Ch4 has marked his card on that LIE !


  4. This morning on Radio Shortbread Macwhirter repeated the lies about Scottish carphone deaths being higher than in England – totally unchallenged by the interviewer… no surprise there.


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