Value of Scotland’s oil surging again

I was reminded of the above report in the FT, just over two weeks ago, warning us several times that the fall in oil prices was a major factor in weakening the economic case for independence.

Today, in finance research website, Daily FX, I read:

Oil Prices continue to Surge after EIA report confirms shrinking supply.

CNBC two days ago also reported:

High expectations for oil demand might justify the recent run-up in prices. West Texas Intermediate crude, for example, is trading at one-month highs and has risen by as much as 30% this year. WTI traded above $63 a barrel on Friday.

Having just posted my vote SNP 1, Green 2, I’m a bit conflicted reporting this but in the push for independence I will use all and any evidence that demonstrates its viability.

22 thoughts on “Value of Scotland’s oil surging again

      1. I’m a Woman.
        ♬ W. O. MAN, I’ll say it again… ♬

        Sorry, got a bit carried away there…

        Any road up, it makes sense to me.

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  1. John,was thinking of doing the same,just to maximise the number of MSPs on our side.
    However….
    We live in a constituency where the Liberal middle classes,many from south of the border,vote Labour just to keep the SNP out.
    Don’t expect this to change so have given our second vote also to the SNP in the hope that we can make up for it on the regional list.
    Horses for courses.

    Liked by 3 people

  2. I will vote SNP and ALBA.
    I and i suspect this applies to many other people , dont really know very much at all about the greens , apart from the two main speakers one of whom has left and is now running as an independent what do we know of the rest ? Zilch.Risky.
    ALBA i know more about, whether to love or hate them you know the narrow field of vision they have , Scottish Independence and not much else.

    Westminster and their helpers rave about the value of oil until the word Scotland is mentioned then its worthless not much left cost more to decommission.

    But every few years Westminster sell off the rights to explore for oil and gas around Scotlands waters , they divide an areas into little portions and auction to the highest bidders.This practice tells you its hugely , really really hugely valuable especially given the history of huge oil and gas finds

    Liked by 1 person

      1. The age of consent stuff was the last straw for me too, though I suspect for totally different reasons. Even the Greens have decided that Patrick Harvie frightens too many horses and are keeping him under cover during the campaign. The Greens are not an independence party. They’re looking for unionist votes, so how any independence supporter can give them their vote is something I can’t get my head round.

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  3. Scotland’s right to determine its own government and democracy is not tied to the price fluctuations of a finite resource. Such thinking may sooth the nerves of those too timid to grasp political emancipation, but it binds us to the price volatility that the market needs to generate profit. In case folks might have forgotten, Westminster is spectacularly unable to support human rights, the rule-of-law, or constitutional democracy. The Tories have killed the political justification for the union, which only remained legally justifiable with Scotland’s permission. So lets try to remember just how vulnerable we are to the prejudices and excesses of contemporary English nationalism. And the institutional Torydum of British constitutionalism.

    What Can We Learn from Vulnerability Theory?
    https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1461&context=honorsprojects

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  4. Dear John ,
    The price of Oil is all-important to the Independence cause .
    When it is falling then of course Scotland is too wee and too poor to support itself as there is NOTHING ELSE in Scotland of any value .

    When the price of Oil is high and rising then of course it is NOT enough for Scotland to live on as the GERS stats show so clearly .
    I mean , how could you pay for Trident and HS2 and Westminster renovations and the National Debt and No 10’s refurbishment etc.. ?

    Liked by 5 people

  5. John, I wouldnt get excited about this were I you. First of all while the current price is more than twice what it fell to, it still about 30-40% less than it was prior to November 2014 – before that the debate was whether Brent Crude would be locked into a range of $100 – 120. Not now and probably not again, particularly in the present circumstances.
    But secondly the price may be coming down already for some producers (eg the Saudis) are looking to increase supply to take advantage of the higher price – which, of course if there is no commensurate increase in demand will only lower the price again, particularly in the present fragile economic circumstances.
    For the foreseeable future, I would suggest that any economic plan for Scotland is not based on oil, which seems unlikely to return to the price levels of the noughties (although with oil one should never say never). Better to focus on renewables and developing the onshore economy which Johnson and his cronies seem unwilling to do.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Price rising or falling doesn’t appear to make much difference to Norway, by the way westminster generated £15 billion in revenue from Scotland’s oil last year. None of it came back to Scotland.

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  6. I wish there was no oil in Scotland’s territorial waters. The English government have scammed Scotland to the tune of £trillions. Scotland’s renewables resources are huge, the oil needs to be left in the ground. Staying shackled to the English government, the oil will continue to be siphoned away until not one drop is left, lining the pockets of massive companies and those BritNats with their fingers in the pie at Westminster.
    Unless the Scottish Greens get behind independence fully, their dreams of an oil free Scotland will remain just that, a total fantasy.

    Let’s not mention the gold at Tyndrum, being mined right now, high quality, High value. Aussie company, ‘Scot gold’ are taking it. There is talk of prospecting north of Tyndrum for other high value minerals, high value high demand means lots and lots of dosh. Tearing up Scotland’s land is not something I want to see, we will have no choice while still under the boot of the English government. Simple really.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. If it is over $60dollars it is viable. The taxation is as important. Westminster get half of production. The UK Gov gets half of production. Whether it is credited to Scottish account? Westminster decides taxation. Corporation tax 20% + 10%. Supplementary. 30% tax. 80% of production. When the Oil price fell. The Tories Cameron and Osborne did not take down the tax quickly enough. The price fell 75% but the tax was still too high. 120,000 people in Scotland lost their jobs.

    Unemployment at that time in Scotland was 120,000. Scotland could have had full employment which could have got wages higher and brought in more revenues from taxation. The Oil companies stopped exploration (and production) because the tax was too high. They could not cover costs and profit. Westminster Gov policy and colossal interference, Spoilt the industry. Demand worldwide has fallen.

    Oil companies have lost monies worldwide. Other fuel and energies are safer and cheaper. Wind, wave and solar, hydro. Scotland is the best place in the world for renewable fuel and energy. World leader because of Oil technology. If Scotland did not produce it, it would have to be imported. Fracked gas from the US (cheaper) is imported into Grangemouth.

    Scotland is in surplus in fuel and energy. 25% but pays more because it is colder. Despite being nearer the source. A 10% tax. It should be 10% less for parity. If Scotland was Independent it could benefit £Billions more from fuel and energy.

    Scotland raises £66Billion in tax revenues + other taxes. More pro rata than the rest of the UK. UK raised. £630Billion + other taxes. Council tax etc? Scotland tax revenues increased £3Billion a year from renewable energy.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. If were there NO oil at all, the headline would still be “Independent Scotland would face a large hole in it’s public finances”, it’s the nature of the London beast.

    Craig Dalzell amongst many others have comprehensively debunked GERS and shown Scotland with healthy public finances post-indy, and that before addressing a multitude of issues which have long favoured London which Scotland would have no logical reason to continue, or the changes which Scotland then make to boost the economy after years of Tory asset-stripping.

    Oil is but a diversion and another will be along in a minute, it is London’s finances which are under threat from independence not Scotland’s.

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Oil is a supplement. The Scottish economy is totally viable in any case. It is Westminster junta which wastes Scottish revenues and resources. Paying for Westminster bad policies and poor decisions. Illegal wars, financial fraud and tax evasion. Paying off debts not borrowed or spent in Scotland. It means there is less to invest in the Scottish economy. Westminster colossal mismanagement and interference holds the Scottish economy back. Westminster fraud and corruption.

    The Greens do not support the Oil industry. It would have to be imported. They opposed every major project in Scotland. The Queensferry Crossing, the AWPR, International Airport expansion, sporting development and tourism, They wasted £Billions of public monies which could have been better spent. The tram debacle. The Oil capital of Europe without a bypass road. Waited 40 years (unionist) waste of time, while £Billions of revenues went south.

    If the Greens support Independence. Why stand in constituency vote. They have no chance of winning. Taking independence votes. Instead of on the list seats.

    Liked by 2 people

  10. @John, spotted this “The full picture of Covid-linked deaths in Scotland’s care homes” pastiche on the BBC Scotland website this morning, following on from Neil Findlay final performance of Hamlet in Holyrood, it struck me this propaganda scam on the public was never going to end.
    Then this https://mobile.twitter.com/msm_monitor/status/1380884014521802753 appeared via indyref2, taking no prisoners.
    I’ve circulated the latter via Facebook, but perhaps you could do it better justice ?

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  11. Oil has value in the ground! The share price of companies can rocket on a good seismic survey never mind an exploration well. Gold bars sit untouched for decades but you can still borrow against it.

    When you have assets such as Whisky in barrels, Oil in the ground, wind that is strong, fresh water that is plentiful, glens with hydroelectric potential, tidal flows that provide guarenteed energy potential then you are able to point to that as Hard assets and available future income.

    Westminster has only Casino London or Money Laundering London. Both are fragile and easily lost. (Not to mention the legal and moral implications)

    Scotland and Norway produced Oil and Gas in roughly approximate amounts (Scotland slightly higher). The taxation income to Norway was much, much higher. The Wealth Fund created by Norway ensures that Nation will never have any economic concerns for centuries to come.

    Point me to any benefits to Scotland apart from the small fund Shetland secured through its own negotiations.

    The money from assets in Scottish waters was primarily used to give tax cuts for the wealthy and for investment in the City of London and the South of England.

    The large companies who made a fortune at the peak are now selling old assets to minor outfits of questionable pedigree often for $1. The Operator was obliged to undertake decommissioning of infrastructure. These small companies will simply go bankrupt and you will have years of litigation trying to identify responsibility.

    Even the large companies like Shell have ignored the license requirements. 1 steel jacket was removed but 2 Brent concrete platforms had their topside removed but the concrete legs and huge storage cells have been left to rot and collapse. The pipe work between the assets still sits on the seabed.

    An old story – a Few via London make money, Scotland suffers.

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  12. The Scottish Green Party is getting a lot of profile btl on TuS these days. To those doubting the Party’s commitment to independence have you read this: https://greens.scot/our-future/independence-and-scotland-s-future

    And did you not work alongside Green Party supporters on the streets campaigning in 2014?

    (As an aside, in terms of being a clear, well laid out, accessible and attractive document, the Greens’ online manifesto is excellent IMHO.)

    I’m still not certain whether it will be SNP 1 & 2 or SNP & Greens for me. But I’m with what was said up thread. I was very dubious about voting for Alba for a number of reasons but: “The age of consent stuff was the last straw for me.” too!

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  13. I’ll say it again, if you insist men can become women, you clearly don’t understand how biological and natural rights interact, so you’re unable to support environmental justice or open democracy. Which means you pose a threat to Scotland’s future and global sustainability. So you might as well admit you’re a Tory.

    Environment Law – Environmental and Natural Resources Law
    https://www.hg.org/environ.html

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  14. People are born not totally distinctive. Born with male and female chromosomes. Everyone is like that. They can be further on the scale. Some people are in the middle. Not one or the other. Distinctive features, They want to ID as one or the other which way they chose. Their bodies are different to the norm. Not better or worse but different. It affects a tiny proportion of the population. Advances in medical science can help people affected to deal with the causes and the outcomes.

    They want to chose how they are identified. They commit suicide and self harm suffer from depression and addiction. They lead a miserable existence. They need to be allow to chose how they are defined. Their chose not others. It is there bodies. They should have equal rights like everyone other. To be totally compatible in the Law. It is a kindness and compassionate. Harms no one else. Totally practical to embrace.

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  15. More drug deaths. Addiction must be taken back under the SNHS not pasted to social care. The Councils do not deal with addiction by the best methods. Putting people on methadone for years. Is not a good solution. The funding must go into proper total abstinence rehab counselling and treatment
    Drs must be able to refer people. Young people are dying every day.

    It is cost affected. Prison cost £40,000 a year. Hospital care £600+++ a day. Police, fire, social work costs increased. The misery of the deaths in the families and communities. Proper funded total abstinence treatment is much cheaper and saves lives.

    Spending £Millions saves £Billion. More people survive to lead heartier better lives. There are a lack of proper rehab facilities to go to. Both public or private. They must be established before more people die. For 1 person who gets better and healthier 9 other people benefit. It must be done soon. Proper total abstinence rehab facilities on the SNHS to save people’s lives and make people healthier. It is cost affective. Saves lives and monies. Young people are dying every day. It is completely unnecessary. £250,000 million has been invested. People are struggling.

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