Can’t help but wonder about that 3%

NOTE: I’m just curious. I’m not suggesting anyone should vote in any way whatsoever.

Survation’s poll for the Courier in the days just following the announcement of the formation of the Alba Party had what seemed like a devastating finding, that only 3% would support it.

Some have suggested that the field work took place before Salmond’s leadership was announced and others have stressed that it was a very early poll for a new party, anyway.

While I’m no expert on these matters, I was surprised that the figure was so low.

On the first day of the new party, I got this from 5 400 largely Yes supporters, self-selecting sample, I know:

On the same day another twitter poll by @indy_sim, returned ths:

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And on the 29th, this from @TonyWidmo:

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Yesterday this from @terryhowson:

Today, this response, self-selecting again of course, suggested strong support for Alba.

3%? I’m not so sure about that. 10-15?

30 thoughts on “Can’t help but wonder about that 3%”

  1. A poll taken when Alba was ‘official’ for how many days? This is Good Friday and among other things Christian, it also marks the 8th day of Alba’s existence. Two points to make here;.1, the sample must have been oven ready (a quote from the playbook of ABdePJ) and must have been online to a pre-selected audience, so a limited sample to put it kindly. If they can get to 3% in 3 days that’s impressive. That’s from someone who has been SNP (and voting that way with both votes) since before Nicola was born.

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  2. Straight away from the Survation poll re Alba and only 3 %
    1.Its more than reasonable to assume only ardent Indy and SNP.voters that would consider voting SNP 1 ALBA 2
    So in order to obtain accuracy with regards Alba only Indy and SNP voters
    Should have asked
    2 The poll did not separate 1 & 2 out
    3. Alba new and recent kid on the block
    Me thinks without even trying too hard they creating a false outcome solely for the purpose of Propaganda Headline making for the MSM
    Bloody Amateurs can’t possibly stand proper scrutiny Flaws staring you in the face

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  3. For what it’s worth I’ll be voting SNP/Alba in my NE Scotland region. It seems to me voting SNP/SNP will only really work in the South of Scotland region.

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  4. From 0% to 3% in around a week isn’t too shabby , a week is maybe a long time in politics but lets see what the second week reveals about voting intentions , it wouldn’t be like the msm to stir the pot or to underplay a strategy that hastens the end of the Union would it now ? . I just wish Alba hadn’t fielded candidates for the regions that returned Snp list Msps , for me that they have makes them look opportunist at best or chanchers at worst .

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    1. But they have to appear as two separate parties with somewhat different aims, otherwise they’d be accused of collusion and possibly treated as a single party by the authorities which to say the least would wreak the cunning plan to get around D’Hondt. No?

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  6. Let’s remember who’s broadcasting the 3% and what they have to gain by such undermining, and I say that as an open minded SNP 1&2er.

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    1. Terrence
      It is up to us show them at polling day
      What we think their actual meaning of MINIMAL actually is and ram it right ben their thrapple
      And give them the worst bout of indigestion possible

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  9. I’ll be waiting to see how the polling appears in a week or so. It’s hard to know, because we are political anoraks, and more people are not!
    What struck me is the similarity of the language used by all the media outlets. It’s “all over” for Eck, is it? They wish!
    I live in Lothian and there is absolutely no point in voting SNP1&2. The priorities of the SNP and the Greens are not my priorities – identity politics as a substitute for action, in my opinion.
    SNP 1/Alba2 gives us a strategy – something that has been sadly lacking for the past six years.
    They were all settled in for a nice dull managerial election to bore us into submission, and Alba has blown that away.
    No wonder they’re all so annoyed with Alex Salmond!

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  10. What story are you trying to promote here Prof? That Survation would risk their reputation and, therefore, all future commissions, to pauchle a result to make Alba look bad?

    If so, this is wishful thinking crowding out rationality. Did you really expect self-selected samples from indy blog visitors and commenters to be anything other than wildly optimistic?

    You’ve debunked similar from the Union side often enough, you should know better. So why not wait for another poll or two, for proper comparison, instead of punting voodoo numbers?

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      1. Genuinely curious about what Prof? Having trouble grasping that ordinary people, outside of the blogosphere, find Alba/AS much more unappealing than you’d hoped?

        So aside from referencing my misuse of voodoo, is an ad hominem non answer the best you can do?

        14%

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    2. This is a unionist stunt. Wittingly or Unwittingly AS is being used to undermine the Independence Vote. We already have a moderately successful Indy alternative in the Greens who have stood by the FM when AS did not.

      In 2016 RISE caused a loss in SNP and therefore independence support. They (the covert unionist saboteurs ) are at again.

      If you think the poll is fiddled underestimating alba may be a plan to get them more support.

      If they get enough seats to bargain they will seriously undermine the Independence cause.

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      1. ” Wittingly or Unwittingly AS is being used to undermine the Independence Vote.”

        In your humble opinion, of course. Though I’m not sure of your judgement tbh, given you’re determined to continue punting the Greens as a serious political party. Despite their embrace of gender-ideology, which renders them incapable of supporting environmental justice, and makes them a political opponent of the World Health Organisation. 😉

        The social psychology of news influence and the development of Media Framing Analysis
        https://publications.aston.ac.uk/id/eprint/38560/1/Giles_%26_Shaw_SPPC_2009_3_375-393(dot)pdf

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  11. Increasing 1% a day. One month 4 days to go. 34 days to go.

    37% on polling day. Alba, Alba, Alba. YES YES YES

    Boot out the unionists. Happy days. Oh happy days.

    SNP 1. Alba 2. Amazing, A dream come come true. Waiting 20 years for it.

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  12. It certainly isn’t 3%. It is also difficult to prove where it is so early. The ISP, AFI, Women’s Pledge supporters plus pissed off SNP members could rally strong support in the closing weeks.

    The both votes SNP is an insulting stance for most Indy supporters given the million votes wasted on the list in 2016. It is inexplicable that in the South of Scotland the SNP have put the current MSP No.2 on the list under the Woke engineered “self identified disabled”.
    I hope Joan wins the constituency.

    I think Alba support will be at least 20%. However I suspect voter turnout may also be a factor.

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    1. James Kelly, Scot goes POP, also said more recently – when he had a feeling that another party might be in the offing – that only a party with Alex Salmond leading it had any chance of winning list seats.

      Too early to say whether ALBA might be successful or not.

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  15. Drew Anderson
    APRIL 3, 2021 AT 7:00 AM EDIT
    Genuinely curious about what Prof? Having trouble grasping that ordinary people, outside of the blogosphere, find Alba/AS much more unappealing than you’d hoped?

    So aside from referencing my misuse of voodoo, is an ad hominem non answer the best you can do?

    14%

    Drew, I meant only ‘voodoo’ was bit OTT.

    Now you substitute patronising advice with sarky ‘profs’ and disbelief that I might have any genuine curiosity. I am.

    Finally ‘trouble grasping that ordinary people, outside of the blogosphere, find Alba/AS much more unappealing than you’d hoped’ – astonishing arrogance.

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  16. Shona Craven A journalist who has a column in the National, but never has anything to say (in the paper) about Scottish Politics . . . . Has dreamed up a reason not to vote for ALBA. “Do Unionists Secretly hope Salmond Will Be Elected” Friday 2nd.

    She was on STV after this weeks BBC debate . . . . . Not one positive word about Nicola Sturgeon. . . Infact as I remember , not one word about Nicola Sturgeon.

    The go to journalist from the National for the broadcast media

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  17. Here’s a thought – happy for it to be shot down. Just prior to the election voters will know the rough state of the polls, and will be able to see that the ALBA party has made significant inroads into the list vote, mainly at the expense of the SNP but also at the expense of the Greens. Up to now it has been the denominator of the D’Hondt seat allocation formula which has been the critical determinant of the value of the SNP vote, so if the party gains 8 constituency seats in the region, the list vote is divided by 8+1 = 9, using 100,000 SNP list votes as an example – the value of these 100,000 votes in terms of seat allocation is about 11,100. Now picture the situation where ALBA has diverted (say) 15% of the SNP list votes, approx 7.5% of the total, leaving the SNP with 85,000 list votes and reducing the value to about 9500 because the numerator of the D’Hondt formula has reduced from 100,000 to 85,000. With this knowledge – say a week before the poll – voters uncertain about whether to vote SNP 1 & 2 could realise that there is an even smaller chance of electing SNP list MSPs , and decide either to vote ALBA-2 or not to vote in the list. If this behaviour occurs then it coould result in a double whammy for the SNP in the list, and risk the party gaining no list seats at all.

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