Rumours of decline in support for independence have been greatly exaggerated

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#cite_note-dk-22

Two recent sets of results from Hanbury Strategy with impressively large samples, have appeared quietly after some delay, to combine with the two most recent polls to cast into serious doubt any decline in support due to either the SNP ‘civil war‘ or any ‘vaccine boost‘ for Unionism.

After discounting the flawed Savanta ComRes poll for the Scotsman, 4 out of the last 8 have an average lead of nearly 6% for Yes, compared to the less than 2% for No, in the other 4.

I shouldn’t tempt fate but with the FM cleared, the Tories dumped and some emergence from lockdown coming our way, I’m optimistic.

Be that way. Voters like it.

13 thoughts on “Rumours of decline in support for independence have been greatly exaggerated

  1. The Unionists had mounted a serious offensive against us hoping that their dual attack on AS and NS along with rigged polls
    Would not only stop the rising tide but turn it back
    Oh how wrong they have been
    Lets drown them know

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Looks like they shot their bolts too soon. Was that the last of their ammunition?

    Onwards with the election campaign. No more tory leaflets with Davidson’s puss on them. Result.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Absolutely correct Terence. We are merely in the foothills of what is going to be an onslaught of propaganda, brainwashing, gaslighting or the like. As a word of caution, while we might be on the way up, we haven’t won anything yet. However, the signs are good, so hopefully we can prevail.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. I think you’re right.

        I’m hopeful that one of the things they may have inadvertently done with all this is create an underdog. Which – when you look at the difference in size, population, money to throw at propaganda, media control etc we are.

        How dare they do this to Plucky Little Scotland?

        Like

  3. Pretty sure the polls’ research that were pro-union came out after Salmond’s evidence, but before Sturgeon’s. In addition, we had wall to wall media coverage of Salmond, and not so much of Sturgeon.

    N.B. – The Hanbury polls exclude DKs in the wiki results.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. For propaganda purposes? Possibly. The yoons will just quote the figures, without things like weighting, breakdown of voters etc.

        The general public don’t always know about these things. I certainly didn’t till I discovered this blog. (So more thanks due, Prof R!)

        Like

      2. Depends on the circumstances. If it was 45% Aye / 37% Naw / 18% DK, it comes out as 55/45 excluding DKs, but 18% DKs is a lot of potential voters not saying either way. I prefer to see the data before they exclude them, so we can get an idea of who the 18% might be (e.g. are they all older, Tories – i.e. Likely Naw votes) etc.

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  4. The London based parties are going to try and use the “vaccine boost” against us.
    UK broad shoulders and “Thank goodness we are now out of the EU” etc etc.
    They only got the initial supplies because they were technically still part of the EU and watch what happens when the EU puts the brakes on vaccines being exported to non EU (i.e. Olde England) countries.
    They may have gained short term advantage but WE will suffer in the longer term.
    Typical Tories.

    Like

    1. BRINGITON
      Scottish exports to the EU are collapsing and in free fall in our key industries
      Whisky, Food,Live stock,agriculture and Fishing which is now a complete disaster
      The Tories shall do their utmost to answer to this
      So we must pursue and harry them at every opportunity but not as to why but as the control they have taken back is a abject failure
      It is us that shall take control and attend to your mess

      Liked by 2 people

    2. You forgot the johnson saying Scotland wouldn’t have got any vaccines without the UK.

      Also, ‘we’ got in first because we were “more agile and flexible”. Nothing about paying twice as much, not waiting to ensure they were fully tested and sticking legal, but unethical, clauses in the contract (Ah, that Buccaneering British Spirit…)

      Even being ‘first’ looks like it may come back to bite all of us on the bum. My understanding is that the EU won’t prioritise exporting vaccine to countries that are ahead of them in vaccinating and have their own production facilities. And, has been pointed out, frequently, We do – ner nerny ner ner…

      Like

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