‘Almost all the cases/deaths were already baked in by that point’

Infection levels for Scotland and UK similar until devolved powers kicked in

A comment by a reader yesterday is worth reposting for maximum exposure:

By Alex Lee-MacDonald

It’s a very good point that often seems to be forgotten by both opponents and supporters of the Scottish Government – Scotland did not have any legal powers to lockdown until the (UK Parliament) Coronavirus Act 2020 was passed late on 25th March 2020 –


Prior to that, England and Wales had power to lockdown but Scotland did not –


The first few days of lockdown 1, which were actually only advisory in Scotland until after the Coronavirus Act 2020 passed, probably only worked in Scotland because the rest of the UK had locked down and there was consistent stay at home messages across the UK at that point.

This is a key point when discussing Scotland’s death rate in the pandemic compared to other countries because by late March 2020, when Scotland got the powers to lockdown (or 23 March 2020 when advisory lockdown became possible), the vast majority of the deaths/cases in the first wave were already baked in. Even though the lockdown got the reproduction number down across the UK, the very high baseline of cases at that point meant that no matter what policies the Scottish Government adopted, almost all the cases/deaths were already baked in by that point, probably until around start of June.

3 thoughts on “‘Almost all the cases/deaths were already baked in by that point’

  1. Very good point, which bears repeating during the (supposed) questions that NS has to answer.

    BTW, is it just me, are the sessions – and, indeed, the questions! – not only shorter, but less hostile when it’s *anybody* but NS doing the briefings?

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Simples just go look at Norway
    Full powers and Independent with a careless hapless irresponsible Swedish neighbour
    Total Infections to date / million
    Norway 14811
    Scotland 38183
    England 67297
    And for Deaths
    Norway 117
    Scotland 1365
    England 1992
    But in last 7 days something very very interesting occurring in Norway
    They now getting more new cases / day than Scotland
    Reason The Kent (not British ) variant
    Now loose and rampant proving extremely difficult to control and ICU and Hospital admissions climbing
    This Kent variant not only is 80% more contagious it appears to be more dangerous and lethal

    Liked by 3 people

  3. It’s a valid point from a legislative perspective, but so too is the fact SAGE were in the “expert” driving seat, UK scientific knowledge was at the early stage of appreciating Covid differed to flu, and “herd immunity” was flavour of the month at #10.

    That combination did indeed bake in most of the early deaths even if Ian Murray et al choose for political reasons not to acknowledge it.

    Liked by 2 people

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