Elgin City third-team reserve takes Premier league star out

In 2014, an online wag asked how I should be compared to Prof Curtis above.

The answer was that he was like a Premier League star and I was like a Third-Team reserve at Elgin City FC.

Frankly, I’d love be to be good enough.

Anyhow, I’ve waited for my revenge and claim today to have taken him out on the field of windy psephology (polls).

In What Scotland Thinks, the ScotCen blog, he writes:

Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?


The wind has seemingly been veering in that direction for a while. However, the latest Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) puts support for independence on 52%, down four points on the company’s previous poll in late November, now provides further confirmation. It now appears that, far from being set on a trajectory of ever growing levels of popularity, support for independence has – for the time being at least – now eased back somewhat. The Ipsos MORI poll is far from being an isolated reading. It is the third in a row to have registered a four-point fall in support, albeit over somewhat different time scales. Panelbase’s most recent poll in late January recorded a four-point drop compared with early November. More recently, Savanta ComRes reported a four-point fall between early January and early February. True, all three polls had previously recorded above average levels of support for independence and it may be that some of the fall they have registered now is simply a result of them coming into line with the results of other polls. However, it is unlikely that this is the full explanation – after all none of the polls published so far this year have identified any increase in support for independence.

Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?

Sticking with his metaphor, has the wind changed direction? Nope, it’s a flat calm.

The ‘wind’ has been blowing from the ‘south’, pushing the SNP ship up since 2017. A change of direction would require the wind to blow from the ‘north’ and push the SNP ship down BUT it hasn’t, it’s not blowing either way. It’s stuck or better, it’s stable.

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16 thoughts on “Elgin City third-team reserve takes Premier league star out

  1. Mr Starwars gets a gig on Conservative Home–quite right too!
    The present difficulties are but a moment in time for independence.

    I have the greatest respect for Alex Salmond. I think Nicola Sturgeon has been a Trojan over these last years.
    Is hatred too mild a word?

    But things will pass, and a new leader will emerge from the SNP, with “Scotland” at the forefront.
    The Tories will still be entirely Anglo-centric, with a yes-man in place in Scotland.
    Labour, with a Tory leader in both Scotland and England–neither of whom believe in the Claim of Right.

    The good thing? The newspapers and journalists have revealed themselves as out-and-out British nationalist.
    No more pretence to ” neutrality” . They are as neutral as the old Daily Mail was in respect of Hitler. And some Royals and Tory MPs.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. I feel for those Trojans.

        You steal a neighbour’s wife and are they grateful?
        No, they’re spiteful
        And they’re hateful

        The first version of Randy Newman’s Political Science


      1. “Ya’all can steal ma woman, if’n yer too ugly to git one o’ yer own.
        That be unurstan’able.

        ‘Zlong as ya leave ma good huntin’ dawg, Red”!


      2. Us auld miners are more Taoist than Chan Buddhist.
        And remember:–

        “A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step”!
        Though I thought we had already marched most of the way.


  2. Polling companies have been found to have behaved illegally. Brexit Ref. Cambridge Analytica acted illegally. Censored and fined. In tight electoral situations the pollsters get it wrong. The analysis is often incomplete and does not stand up to proper scrutiny.

    The millionaire owners and politicians helping hedge funds to make an illegal gain. Given honours. Against the public interest. Interference in the purdah period. The electoral commission with not enough power to increase regulations, guidelines and proper scrutiny. Representation of the People’Act being broken without proper repercussions. .

    The head of the polling association and the members have been censored and fined. Many times. The polling companies are expected to have higher standards. Universities funded by public monies used by private companies making vast profits. The bookies get it right using better data and methods. Less likely to be manipulated. More legitimate results.

    Liked by 2 people

  3. The pollster companies owned by millionaire politicians and their associates misusing public monies and illegally influencing with the result. More Westminster illegal corruption. Wasting public monies on manipulation. Breaking the lax representation of the people rules and regulations. During the purdah period they should be shut down. Not all over the ‘news’. Illegal Vows, broken promises and lies Influencing the result. More Westminster lies and corruption. Another racket and duplicity working against the people.


  4. I suppose celebrating a “flat calm” is less dispiriting than the pragmatic perspective which puts current polling in the context of a campaign. In that context, the polling for Yes remains stubbornly becalmed 5 – 10 points below where we would realistically hope and expect it to be. This is because there has been no campaign. Nicola Sturgeon has steered Scotland’s cause into the Doldrums.

    Looking at the politics rather than merely the numbers it has been clear for some time that the marginal gains for Yes were based on factors other than the constitutional issue. There was no sustained or sustainable increase in support for independence because there was no meaningful effort to win this. All the effort was put into an anti-Brexit campaign supplemented by the ‘windfall’ of a public health emergency which has allowed Nicola Sturgeon to shine – at least relative to Boris Johnson.

    These are transient factors. Any increase in support indicated by the polls is therefore also transient. The anti-Brexit campaign was never going to have a lasting effect because the British state was always going to throw massive resources at minimising the immediate impact. Or more important, minimising the perceived impact.

    The ticker-tape parade celebrating Nicola Sturgeon’s management of the PR aspects of the public health crisis was always going to peter out as supplies of ticker-tape ran low and it became necessary to ‘recycle’ the soiled street-sweepings.

    Neither of these were going to have any lasting effect for the glaringly obvious and surpassingly mundane reason that people just get fed up hearing about them. They lose interest. On Brexit, they only people still interested are the obsessive bean-counters and the people who like to remind everybody of all those occasions when SNP politicians solemnly swore that they would not allow Scotland to be dragged out of the EU against the will of Scotland’s people.

    On Covid the response is what it always is when the tires on the bandwagon go flat – “Aye! But what have you done for us lately?”.

    The story of Nicola Sturgeon’s time in charge of the political arm of the independence movement is a depressing tale of hesitation, procrastination, squandered opportunity and appalling political cowardice.

    Liked by 1 person

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