In 2014, an online wag asked how I should be compared to Prof Curtis above.
The answer was that he was like a Premier League star and I was like a Third-Team reserve at Elgin City FC.
Frankly, I’d love be to be good enough.
Anyhow, I’ve waited for my revenge and claim today to have taken him out on the field of windy psephology (polls).
In What Scotland Thinks, the ScotCen blog, he writes:
Has The Constitutional Wind Changed Direction?
POSTED ON 26TH FEBRUARY 2021 BY JOHN CURTICE
The wind has seemingly been veering in that direction for a while. However, the latest Ipsos MORI poll for STV, which (after leaving aside Don’t Knows) puts support for independence on 52%, down four points on the company’s previous poll in late November, now provides further confirmation. It now appears that, far from being set on a trajectory of ever growing levels of popularity, support for independence has – for the time being at least – now eased back somewhat. The Ipsos MORI poll is far from being an isolated reading. It is the third in a row to have registered a four-point fall in support, albeit over somewhat different time scales. Panelbase’s most recent poll in late January recorded a four-point drop compared with early November. More recently, Savanta ComRes reported a four-point fall between early January and early February. True, all three polls had previously recorded above average levels of support for independence and it may be that some of the fall they have registered now is simply a result of them coming into line with the results of other polls. However, it is unlikely that this is the full explanation – after all none of the polls published so far this year have identified any increase in support for independence.
Sticking with his metaphor, has the wind changed direction? Nope, it’s a flat calm.
The ‘wind’ has been blowing from the ‘south’, pushing the SNP ship up since 2017. A change of direction would require the wind to blow from the ‘north’ and push the SNP ship down BUT it hasn’t, it’s not blowing either way. It’s stuck or better, it’s stable.