The current death rate from Covid-19 remains horribly high but it has been falling slowly yet un-remarked upon.
On the 26th January the 7 day average peaked at 60. By the 4th of February it had fallen to 50 and in the last 24 hours it was 40.
Still disturbing figures, I know, but these are signs that lagging behind the case and hospitalisation rates, deaths will fall. We can look forward to further falls until we get back to where we were in July when there were days with none.
With vaccination rates for the over 80s and the care home residents getting close to 100% and those for the over 70s and over 65s not far behind, we can, with border control and supervised quarantine, keep it that way.
On January 22nd there were 2 053 in hospital and in the last 24 hours that had reduced to 1 449, a 25% fall in only 3 weeks.
On the 22nd January, there were 161 in ICU and that figure too has reduced to 110, a similar fall in the same time.
Keep focused but fear not.
Talking-up Scotland 
We can expect calls to ease lockdown from Tory/Lab/LibDum to get louder
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Robert
As for the expected cry from Tories/ Lab & libs
How about one from us to all to them
Lock all 3 of them up.and throw away the key by the correct vote in May ballot
Oh sorry i was dreaming just woke up
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From Liam Thorp/Liver[pool Echo
“Liverpool’s infection rate rose from 80 cases per 10000k (Mid December) to 1000 cases per 100000) (early January)
January was the city’s deadliest month for the virus
Liverpool’s current rate is 250/100k and people think we should return to normal now.”
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Excellent. May it continue. Any sacrifices are worth it. What an improvement. The curve is down.
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Covid-related Death rates always fall very slowly.They plateau and then after a bit start dropping slowly again. It takes a very long time to get them down to maybe double figures. I don’t know why
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Benmadigan
Yes death rates do tend to fall slowly
But this virus is rather predictable and statistical model’s can be done correlating
From initial new daily cases,to Hospital and ICU admission and if you factor in the age groups then you can be very accurate in predicting the eventual death nos.
But in this wave of the more virulent variant
More data is reqd to be as accurate as modelling was for the 1st wave
Another complication with the 2nd wave there are 3 main factors which are differebt from the 1st wave
1.There are a higher proportion of infections and subsequent serious health impact of younger age groups than with the 1st wave
Such strongly suggests that A) whilst the virus transmitting it is doing so at a higher dose rate
B) The variant strain may be just more potent
But very difficult to ascertain accurately
Due to higher dose transmission,which gives the virus a head start in overcoming your initial immune response
C) We have learned how to treat the effects
Far better than was the case in the 1st wave
All 3 of above requires more data in order to increase the accuracy of any modelling
And this is exactly why The SG is playing very cautious in easing lock down
But i fear Boris and his Cohorts are becoming inpatient and willing to act upon initial modelling without waiting it out for sufficent
Data to emerge that shall enable a very low mean standard deficiency to be applied,thereby giving you far more predictability and therefore certainty
But Boris has in the past well and truly shown a propensity to take a gamble
So the bets are off as to how he acts in the coming weeks
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Thanks for your kind explanation of all the variables involved in modelling the patterns of this Covid wave.
Boris will probably open up too soon, despite the vaccinations.
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And one of the main reasons i think he will open up soon albeit this time with far more caution and no doubt so that he has behind the scenes had a serious talking to
And what has won the day is the costs off enforced 2 nd lock down and the highly transmissible new strain
However the hawks in his cabinet are lighting the candle of herd immunity for him
All due to vaccinations and large no of previous cases/ infection numbers
Me thinks this too much for Boris to resist
Just like a up skirt view of a fine maiden at a drunken party would raise not only the crotch
Of his trousers,but his instincts to pro create
A business he really doth succeed in admirably as far as he concerned
Another fine indicator Boris does not always think with his head
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Ian Murray was asking why the SNP did not close the borders a year ago on BBC QT.
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A couple of links about masks, probably even more useful in winter.
If possible people should wear masks outdoors not just in shops, though unfortunately possibly nothing will stop the droplets from very tall, fast out of breath with mouth open joggers, running a few inches away from you as I had to try to avoid earlier today!! It is perfectly safe for joggers to wear masks, but no, splutter, gasp splutter gasp, grrrrr!
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-humidity-masks-lessen-severity-covid-.html
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-mask-experts.html?utm_source=nwletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=daily-nwletter
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The red lines indicate when lockdown was relaxed in May and December. Lets not make the December mistake again. Only a quarter of us have so far been vaccinated.
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On that point Alex, I see the lockdown sceptic Tory M.Ps, the Covid Recovery Group, (C.R.G), are calling for all rules to be abandoned by the end of April. What’s the betting L.B.J kowtows to them?
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They did say assuming all over 50s vaccinated.
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On past form BJ will ignore that
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Alex
And let all not forget the importation of the
Kent variant
Which they were made aware of early October but their propaganda has managed to have all believe that in fact it was late December
Now take a look at the graph once more
Me thinks doing so shall alter any previous conclusions
Such is the subtle but DEADLY power of the nefarious activity of propaganda units
A large pile of dead bodies is always a good indicator as to how the pile became so large
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England lockdown was lifted on 2 December and helped new variant spread
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Probably they will say they were “offered” the jag, and that will suffice.
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New variants are discovered faster than vaccines can be developed. We still would need measures to prevent circulation and consequent mutations
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Careless of me but I see reading the full letter it does indeed say “offered”.
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The quarter who have been vaccinated are the others who are most likely to die or spread the virus. Millions of people have had the virus but have not died. If it has immunity qualities p. They are less likely to have the disease again.So much more of the populations are protected. Another 1/4 millions. In the older age group. Middle aged. They are less likely to die from the virus, Youngsters and children are less likely to die from the virus. They appear to have a higher rate of ammunition. Another 1million+? One million under 18 year olds. 20 to 40 numbers. Look it up. All these cohort groups are less likely to die from the virus and be less affected healthwise. Better outcomes.
The 1 Million that have had the jab are the most vulnerable groups or the essential workers/carers who have to go out in the community. So are more likely to spread the virus. If they had/have it, The rest of the population are more protected because the most vulnerable have had it. They will not be passing it to the most vulnerable, likely to die. It is the law of averages.
The expectation is that the number of deaths and infection will fall. That is what is happening because of the major effort. It will be rewarded by less deaths and infections.The most vulnerable are the one’s whose lifestyle means they can follow guidelines and isolate better, They are not working or essential worker. They are retired. They can stay home more if they desire. Even in more normal circumstances.
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7 day average deaths lower than first peak (52-40), higher than first peak (35-40) and lower than 3rd peak (60-40).
All deaths after September unnecessary and many even before that.
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With the most vulnerable vaccinated (per JCVI), fatal encounter with Covid will become less frequent and fatalities should continue to reduce.
NEW hospital and ICU admissions should fall as vaccines roll out, but with doses allocated pro-rata in the UK, we can only match England’s pace.
Rising calls from London Tories to relax controls (too early again) are alarming, we’ve already witnessed their cavalier attitude in face of a potentially fatal virus, “Eat out to help out” brought the “world beating” Kent variant.
Variants are to be expected, but the danger of one arising which nulls the benefit of the current vaccination programme is very real if England remains a petri dish.
Imagine starting the vaccination programme all over again, but that is exactly the stupid risk Johnson & Co are playing with.
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