Not the ‘latest’ any more as situation shows not-that-early signs of improvement

If it bleeds it leads‘ as the say but when things are changing fast, yesterdays research report inevitably becomes not be the ‘latest thing‘ on the very day it is published.

The Herald is keen to keep you on edge and anxious for the latest on this risk to your life but they’re ‘behind the curve’ on this.

I didn’t need to go far in to the report to confirm what I guessed would be the case from my time in HE:

Over the last two weeks there has been a step change in the course of the epidemic with a sharp rise in case numbers and hospital and ICU admissions. A new variant of SARS- CoV-2 called B.1.1.7 or VOC-202012/01 which can be transmitted more easily than other variants is now circulating widely in Scotland. The latest evidence from Imperial College, published on 31st December presents a consensus that this new variant has a substantial transmission advantage, with an increased rate of transmission estimated to be somewhere between 0.4 and 0.7.

See those dates? The latest evidence was published on the 31st of December?

They should have checked with their own Health Correspondent, Helen McArdle. On January 11th, she informed us:

THE prevalence of a new more contagious strain of Covid could be declining in Scotland, according to the latest infection survey.  The latest data from random sampling indicates that the UK variant accounted for 22 per cent of positive tests around the new year period, compared to 38% earlier in December. 

See that graph? It goes up to 7th of January. See the wee downturn? I wonder if that continued and if it did, would the prognosis be more optimistic?

Ah, so the 7-day average of new cases began to plateau on Jan 5th and to fall on the 8th.

As for overwhelmed, we’ve been here before. General Covid bed occupancy is at around only 50% of capacity and ICU occupancy at only 20%. I appreciate that there will be regional variation but the regions are right next to each other – transfers? Don’t we do that kind of thing all the time?

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4 thoughts on “Not the ‘latest’ any more as situation shows not-that-early signs of improvement

  1. Ch4 news last night in its report on the pandemic focused part of their report on Carlisle and mentioned that patients from the hospital in Carlisle were being transferred to Dumfries and Galloway hospital.

    Strangely I dont think that the BBC has got round to mentioning that.

    Liked by 2 people

      And they never will because it is a round peg attempting to go in a square hole
      As far asTheir Better Together agenda
      But if the other way round Guess but no coconuts as a prize if guess correct

      Liked by 1 person

  2. Tiny bit early to tell but we are now getting on for 3 weeks from Xmas so the Xmas infections should be feeding in. But no huge expected rise. Which probably means as with 1st Lockdown compliance is still higher here than in England.

    Having lived there community cohesion and buy in is definitely less. The I’m alright Jack strain is strongly prevalent with Thatcher’s ‘There’s no such thing as society’ still be held dear in many hearts.

    I know I would very much rather be up here than still down there.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. And transmission’s not helped by the fact that – in London at least – essential work for many means “it’s essential if you want to get paid”, You may, of course, take unpaid leave. The default being that if you can’t work from home, go in. There’s no clarity on what counts as essential either.

      I know where I’d rather be too…

      Liked by 1 person

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