18 in a row!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence

I need to remind my self what the situation was before June:

In explaining this, much is made of three factors:

  1. The Johnson
  2. Brexit
  3. The First Minister and Covid-19

Journalists love to explain the surge in terms of one or more of the above factors but there will be more to it.

I have no hard evidence but I think:

  1. People are just getting used to the idea of decisions being made in the country they live in.
  2. Younger voters don’t remember when it was different.
  3. Some older voters has passed on. Covid, it may be insensitive to say, might be working in favour of the Yes movement.
  4. There are no impressive leading Unionists.
  5. There are several impressive SNP leaders.
  6. Women are moving to Yes.
  7. Migrants are moving to Yes.
  8. English Scots are moving to Yes.
  9. We may have passed a tipping point where the momentum is firmly with us.

No doubt, I’ve missed something.

16 thoughts on “18 in a row!”

  1. Given I’m a newbie here, all I’ll suggest is that folk may improve their comprehension of the peril that Brexit represents to Scotland, by checking out “Autonomy and morality: A Self-Determination Theory discussion of ethics”. As forcing Scots to live under the ‘moral’ and cultural cognition of English Torydum, is simply incompatible with international human rights law.

    Liked by 5 people

  2. A. It has become normal to expect a Scot to run the country.
    EVEL makes it impossible for a Scot to be PM or Chancellor.

    B. Johnson IS a PUSH factor, no doubt.

    C. We got a New Year card from friends in Bordeaux this morning (my wife worked in France for years, and we have holidayed there for decades. Part of it stated–
    “Good luck with your quest for independence. We are with you”!

    These are good people–we cannot let them down!

    Liked by 1 person

  3. All of these are probably true John, but I wonder if we need to look to Physics for a more over-arching explanation – quantum change! In behavioural terms this can be described as ” sudden, dramatic, and enduring transformations that affect a broad range of personal emotion, cognition, and behavior.”
    During the first referendum, the issue was to persuade people (hopefully a majority) that independence was possible, that we COULD do this. Has the situation changed for many of the reasons that you cite, which has made independence the “new normal”?
    A consequence of this would be that the Union – the current status quo – is what has to justify itself. In some cases those we would expect to justify it, can’t be bothered – the Union is self-definingly the best of all possible worlds. Johnson was very close to this in his wee spat with Pete Wishart the other day. Alternatively, they just aren’t very good at it – Johnson again, Gove, Jack, even Starmer. But the personalities matter less than the change in paradigm. Perhaps we need to (re)read Thomas Kuhn.

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    1. I agree there is an urgent need for a change in public consciousness, though many Scots fail to recognise the disabling cognitive impact that English/British nationalist ideology has on our minds, and ‘our’ public institutions. “What can we do? A philosophical analysis of individual self-determination”, points to self-determination theory from a moral point of view, in an effort to define how to connect communities with their political autonomy, AGENCY, and rights .

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  4. Another reason may well be the growing awareness of how MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) works. This brings the realisation that an Indy Scotland with its own sovereign fiat currency could have funded Covid-related support schemes just as easily as (and probably more inclusively than) the UK has done. That realisation then extrapolates into a further understanding that Scotland is perfectly capable of maintaining a strong, resilient economy. If anyone needs more info just go to
    https://www.reservebank.scot – it’s all there.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Indeed – and there seems little hope of a future Labour government in Westminster, if led by its present leadership, offering much that is different from the Tories’ ‘household budget’ concept of how the public finances operate.

      At least if Richard Murphy’s assessment of the recent major economic policy speech by the shadow Chancellor Annelise Dodds is valid.

      See this: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2021/01/14/the-paradox-at-the-heart-of-labours-economic-policy/

      “The paradox at the heart of Labour’s economic policy – Annelise Dodds had two deeply conflicted comments to make in her Mais lecture last night.”

      Liked by 1 person

      1. When I texted my daughter to tell her about R Leonard, her response was that she had to google who he was and it came up saying that one of the reasons he was stepping down was that nobody recognised him!

        So. Who’s this James Kelly? Should I know him? I probably do, but don’t realise I do. (It obviously runs in the family…)

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