I need to remind my self what the situation was before June:
In explaining this, much is made of three factors:
- The Johnson
- The First Minister and Covid-19
Journalists love to explain the surge in terms of one or more of the above factors but there will be more to it.
I have no hard evidence but I think:
- People are just getting used to the idea of decisions being made in the country they live in.
- Younger voters don’t remember when it was different.
- Some older voters has passed on. Covid, it may be insensitive to say, might be working in favour of the Yes movement.
- There are no impressive leading Unionists.
- There are several impressive SNP leaders.
- Women are moving to Yes.
- Migrants are moving to Yes.
- English Scots are moving to Yes.
- We may have passed a tipping point where the momentum is firmly with us.
No doubt, I’ve missed something.