With an infection rate today only one-quarter of that in England and only one-fifth of that in Northern Ireland, only one ‘leading academic’ (me) seems willing to suggest that ‘We are doing better. It’s not just the communication.’
‘Wait’, I hear Sarah say, ‘that’s just one day. You need at least the 7 day average.’
‘Ah, the infection level in England is not even three times as high. That’s not highly significant, is it?’
Oh yes it is. Massively so. Something very different is happening in Scotland. Here’s my guess:
Better communication has resulted in greater confidence in government. That has resulted in greater compliance and greater compliance has resulted in much lower infection levels.
‘Wait, I hear Andrew say, you didn’t do so well earlier did you?
Oh yes we did:
The infection level per 1 million population over the whole pandemic in England is 60% higher, in Wales it’s more than 100% (twice) higher and in Northern Ireland, it’s also 60% higher.
Significant? You bet it is? Who gets the credit? Where does the buck stop in a devolved health service?
Come on all you professors of public health or virology. Show some guts.