Behind the times and missing the obvious?

From the Herald’s Health Correspondent today, out-of-date statistics leading her to miss the evidence that the ‘second wave’ has slowed.

Mysteriously limited by PHS statistics only going up to October 17, the clear flattening of the curve revealed here is missed:

It’s not at all clear why Travelling Tabby has more up-to-date data but it does.

The flattening of the curve is obvious. The 7 day average yesterday was 1 174 new cases. The 7 day average on the 15th was 1 178, virtually the same whereas on the 9th it had been only 906, 23% lower.

A reduction in deaths will lag behind the new cases data but on the 15th it was 6.7, up 2.5 times from 2.6 on the 9th, while on the 21st it was 11.6, only 1.7 times from the 6.7 on the 15th – blunting?

Now, we can talk about this. We’re all adults. Knowing that the strategy is beginning to work gives people the strength and the courage to try even harder to win.

Jumping to the question of what the plan is now, isn’t it bleeding obvious? Keep going.

Instead we read:

First, Scotland’s test and tracing system works really well, reaching more than 90% in sharp contrast to England’s outsourced and failed system.

Isolation is down to the rest of us but we know from research that the key factor in ensuring it is trust in the government. Opinion polls tell us that is the case in Scotland and the flattening of the curve here as cases continue to surge in England, tells us it’s actually happening.

As for ‘inventing new tiers’ this is merely repackaging of existing measures to clarify and to improve public understanding leading then to better compliance. I feel sure the experts have been working on this.

7 thoughts on “Behind the times and missing the obvious?

  1. The UK really needs to learn from other countries who really do have a return to almost normality (e.g. China, Vietnam, NZ)…

    We need to ‘close’ our borders and require anyone flying in required to self isolate in a hotel room for two weeks.

    Restrictions only ever limit the spread of in-country transmission, if we are always allowing new imports of the virus we will get nowhere.

    It seems drastic, but it’s quite simple really:

    Liked by 1 person

    1. This article is about Scotland in particular and the lies by the media to attempt to sow doubt and confusion among the people of Scotalnd so that the competence of the Scottish government in dealing with Covid19 is hidden. The reason for this is to totally undermine the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon, because Scotland has an election in 2021 and the number of people who trust the Scottish FM and also want independence to be on the table, has gone up hugely.

      Scotland cannot ‘close the border’, that is another reserved power to the EngUKGov and they intend to keep it that way. Sadly, Scotland cannot do what NZ has done, devolution is not independence. NZ is independent. Scotland does not have the fiscal levers to impose more restrictions like quarentine in ‘hotel rooms’ etc.
      The media, 100% of them all HQ’d in Eng and elsewhere have an agenda to demonise the First Minister, sow seeds of doubt, and ensure that trust in the Scottish government is kept to a minimum. It’s not working so the EngGov’s new ‘Internal Market Bill’ re their disgraceful Brexit, ensures that Scotland’s strategy and limited powers in all areas of governing are curtailed and in fact overruled. That is what we are looking at here and it’s extremely worrying and undemocratic.


  2. I monitor all the data daily and in particular the 2nd wave
    And i stated on Sept.12 th That England was almost certain for extreme problems
    And are now in the Phase i fully expected them to be
    The last 9 days data confirms
    1 Scotland has this situation under more control
    2.England has virtually lost it now
    3.If and when seasonal winter flu hits
    England will be in very serious trouble
    As they will have to deal with covid and winter flu only,their vaccination program is all at sea with regards winter flu,whereas Scotland is very well organised
    EHNS could possibly collapse and remain so for a very very long time particularly so
    As normal routine cancer services etc.fall further and further behind all with the attendant consequential ampflications that arise
    Next early Spring will be critical for them
    Boris and his cohorts have chosen to fight serious enemies on far too many fronts now
    Such always ends in defeat

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I think the evidence of a slowdown has to be treated with caution given so many tests went walkabout at the weekend.

    Hopefully it is slowing but maybe a bit premature to be definite about it.


    1. Expect it to go haywire again. Air b&b flats around us are occupied for the half term by English families who have travelled into Scotland. That is a recipe for disaster.


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