From the Herald’s Health Correspondent today, out-of-date statistics leading her to miss the evidence that the ‘second wave’ has slowed.
Mysteriously limited by PHS statistics only going up to October 17, the clear flattening of the curve revealed here is missed:
It’s not at all clear why Travelling Tabby has more up-to-date data but it does.
The flattening of the curve is obvious. The 7 day average yesterday was 1 174 new cases. The 7 day average on the 15th was 1 178, virtually the same whereas on the 9th it had been only 906, 23% lower.
A reduction in deaths will lag behind the new cases data but on the 15th it was 6.7, up 2.5 times from 2.6 on the 9th, while on the 21st it was 11.6, only 1.7 times from the 6.7 on the 15th – blunting?
Now, we can talk about this. We’re all adults. Knowing that the strategy is beginning to work gives people the strength and the courage to try even harder to win.
Jumping to the question of what the plan is now, isn’t it bleeding obvious? Keep going.
Instead we read:
First, Scotland’s test and tracing system works really well, reaching more than 90% in sharp contrast to England’s outsourced and failed system.
Isolation is down to the rest of us but we know from research that the key factor in ensuring it is trust in the government. Opinion polls tell us that is the case in Scotland and the flattening of the curve here as cases continue to surge in England, tells us it’s actually happening.
As for ‘inventing new tiers’ this is merely repackaging of existing measures to clarify and to improve public understanding leading then to better compliance. I feel sure the experts have been working on this.