For some time now, the opposition parties and much of the MSM have clung to the historical data and ignored more recent trends in a vain attempt to persuade the general public that Scotland’s apparent covid-19 success is mere spin.

In June, even as infection levels and deaths plummeted here, the FT characterised Scotland’s success as PR and encouraged a swathe of commentators from the MP Ian Murray to Iain Macwhirter and Gordon Brewer to loudly claim the same:

As recently as July 23rd, by which time recent trends had become starkly different, Sky’s Adam Boulton was still repeating:

It’s strange isn’t it, in practical terms, Scotland hasn’t done any better than the rest of the UK in handling covid. 

Inevitably, however, the truth will out. After months of fast declining infection and deaths here, even the gap between Scotland and England’s total figures has widened too far to be ignored.

England has ten times the population so if performance was to be similar, the total number of cases and deaths would also be ten times higher but they are not, by any means.

Scotland has had 18 694 cases so if all things were equal, England would have had 186 940 but had 263 602, 41% higher.

Scotland has had 2 491 deaths so if all things were equal, England would have had 24 910 but has 41 598, 67% higher.