Adam Boulton: After months of divergence Scotland ‘has done better’as even England’s TOTAL death rate pro rata reaches 67% higher

For some time now, the opposition parties and much of the MSM have clung to the historical data and ignored more recent trends in a vain attempt to persuade the general public that Scotland’s apparent covid-19 success is mere spin.

In June, even as infection levels and deaths plummeted here, the FT characterised Scotland’s success as PR and encouraged a swathe of commentators from the MP Ian Murray to Iain Macwhirter and Gordon Brewer to loudly claim the same:

As recently as July 23rd, by which time recent trends had become starkly different, Sky’s Adam Boulton was still repeating:

It’s strange isn’t it, in practical terms, Scotland hasn’t done any better than the rest of the UK in handling covid. 

Inevitably, however, the truth will out. After months of fast declining infection and deaths here, even the gap between Scotland and England’s total figures has widened too far to be ignored.

England has ten times the population so if performance was to be similar, the total number of cases and deaths would also be ten times higher but they are not, by any means.

Scotland has had 18 694 cases so if all things were equal, England would have had 186 940 but had 263 602, 41% higher.

Scotland has had 2 491 deaths so if all things were equal, England would have had 24 910 but has 41 598, 67% higher.

5 thoughts on “Adam Boulton: After months of divergence Scotland ‘has done better’as even England’s TOTAL death rate pro rata reaches 67% higher

  1. I’m not sure how things compare if the measure used is ‘Excess Deaths’. While England’s counting is at best uncertain, the only safe numbers to use for comparison sake Are the excess deaths. I know JB Murdoch has played a significant part in graphing worldwide Excess Deaths.
    Even if these people didn’t die with covid playing a direct part, the disease’s interference in normal, everyday life is, surely, likely to be responsible. No cold, no ice and few other ‘seasonal’ conditions to muddy the water.
    I suspect that the number that concerns folk now, and the most significant determinant of the return of our schools and our economy, is the current daily number of new infections. In that respect, NS and Scotgov divergence from england in the ‘Zero Covid’ strategy is vitally important.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Read a post after a Guardian report on July covid 19 deaths. I cannot remember precise figures but approximately England 2400,Wales 43,Scotland 6 and Northern Ireland 5.No idea if these figures give true picture of the relative fatalities.


  3. One of the graphs in the recent report by the UK Office of National Statistics, which showed the numbers of infections and deaths from Covid 19, during the period of the epidemic from February, 2020, until the end of July illustrates the data for the four nations very well.

    Up to the end of March the rate of infections per 100 000 population is almost identical for all four nations. Then, NI, Scotland and Wales began to manage things in their own ways. Immediately the gradient of the graphs for NI, Scotland and Wales reduces – NI most, then Wales and Scotland least, although clearly less than England’s. The three graphs ‘plateau’, while England’s is still rising and then begin to decline. The decline for Scotland eventually surpasses those for NI and Wales. The England data, having peaked then begins to decline and eventually again roughly matches those for the other three nation.

    While there are issues about the accuracy of the data, they do indicate that after the ‘four nation’ approach ended, NI, Scotland and Wales seem to have managed things better. And, in relation to deaths in the past 6 weeks NI and Scotland have done markedly better.

    Test and trace appears to be working effectively in NI and Scotland, whereas in England, in particular, most authorities agree that it has been rather ineffective. Indeed, a report today by one of the London universities, claiming to be a report for “UK”, indicates that the return to schools in September for English children must be considered doubtful because of the track and trace inadequacy. The report, in my reading, is really about England (and, perhaps, Wales) and is guilty of the England/UK synonym flaw.

    However, GMS used the report to cast doubt on Scotland’s return to school next week.

    Liked by 1 person

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