Before trying to answer the question above, it’s worth putting things in perspective:
With 10 times the population, England’s infection rate might be expected to be 270 but it’s 710. With half the population, the infection rate in Wales might be expected to be 14 but it’s 30.
Though recently increased, Scotland’s infection rate remains low.
Returning to the graphs above, while the pattern is not precise, there is evidence there that increases in testing on the 8th to 10th, on the 15th to 18th and on the 21st to 24th July, precede peaks in the numbers tested positive.
This means that the apparent increase in infection level may be less worrying than it seems at first.
Around 30 positives out of 15 000 tests is only 0.2%.
The current official estimate is that only 500 Scots, in total, are infected, out of 5.5 million – 0.009%.