In the Herald today, their health correspondent, Helen McCardle submits a ‘Primary 7’ project based on utterly meaningless percentage increases in small numbers of cases and missing the bleeding obvious correlation with testing, reported here, and second-marked by Professor Bauld.
Here is the first offending bit:
Now, I know that can look like a big increase to a small person but you’ve used the weekly totals instead of the daily averages to make it look worse than it is. The 7 day average today is 12.4 and last week it was 9.4. The rate in England is between 800 and 1 700 per day depending on whether you accept the PHE or the ONS figures.
When the numbers are so low in the first place, it doesn’t mean anything and you’ve only used the changes in these totals over two weeks. You can’t have a one week trend!
The level fell 70% from 23 to 7 yesterday. Does that mean anything?
When we get down to the regional numbers, which you have based your project on, it’s even less meaningful. There are hundreds of thousands of people in these areas so converting these tiny numbers into percentages is all wrong.
The worst thing in your project submission here has been your failure to read what real experts are saying. In class I told you to follow what Professor Bauld was saying about this. You clearly did not.
Here’s what Prof Bauld said on Reporting Scotland:
So although these numbers are I think slightly concerning they may also be a feature of increased testing.
You like Reporting Scotland don’t you? I thought you watched it to see your wee pal Lisa? I see her wee pal David was on BBC Scotland this morning. He didn’t listen to Professor Bauld either.
I know you don’t like the Tusker but Prof Robertson there presented a report which seems to agree with Prof Bauld. Read it before you resubmit.