I do think George Kerevan is right. No matter what they do, these new list only parties are not the way to get a referendum. Their votes are likely to come from people who would otherwise vote SNP. Any reduction in the list vote for SNP will be seized upon by WM as a fall in support for Independence – regardless of where it has gone.
In their current fragmented state I deem it unlikely that they will actually get any seats and they may very well deprive SNP of list seats that would give them an overall majority in Hollyrood. If they combined and succeeded in getting some seats that brought Indy supporting parties over the 50% of MSPs, just how are they going to force SNP’s hand? Will they vote against SNP proposals? Really? Will they carp on about SNP not going for a referendum. What will that make them? Why just another SNPBaaaad party. Jackson will love that.
I think support is coming to Independence for a combination of reasons.
Firstly from post-Brexit canvassing we know that a lot of people were persuaded to vote No because of the threat of being excluded from the EU. I do not know if the numbers are greater in Scotland than other parts of the Uk but we found an amazing number of voters with EU connections ranging from EU spouses to family/ close acquaintances living in EU countries or jobs involving frequent travel there. The way EU citizens resident in the UK have been treated by Westminster has infuriated the first category, and the second and third categories are well informed of what is going to happen in the now likely event of no deal. Even folk who have no greater connection that holiday trips are learning how it is going to affect them and their purses.
A number of people have had their eyes opened by the abysmal way the Covid-19 pandemic has been mishandled by Westminster and this current crop of charlatans calling themselves Tories, and this has in some cases – particularly those who were not strongly persuaded – led them to revisit Brexit aand revise their views. For many long time conservatives, Boris’s comment “F¥ck busines” was a shock. I would include in those folk some I would class as old-fashioned conservatives with a small “c”. These creatures in Westminster are in no way the conservative party they once voted for.
I would also suggest that there is no great attachment to anything outwith London and the home counties among Boris’s most ardent Brexiteers. No deal is not an end in itself to them, it is a means to their real goal which is Singapore-upon-Thames. The Celtic fringe can be dispensed with if it stands in their way. My suspicion is that Boris himself is attached to the title of UK PM but he is not in a position to gainsay his cabal their dream. if push came to shove PM of a “world beating England” is good enough.
It will be interesting to see what happens if/when the UK attempts to repudiate the WA.