Is the apparent increase in cases mainly due to more testing?

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

I’ve done a bit of amateur cropping and stretching with the second graph to try and align them.

Am I correct in seeing increased testing on 8th-10th July leading to increased cases identified on the 10th-12th and increased testing on the 15th to 18th leading to increased cases on the 16th to 18th and perhaps the 19th ?

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Do the still falling hospital admissions, single-figure ICU numbers and almost zero-level deaths, suggest that the increases are mostly low-level and asymptomatic cases?

27 thoughts on “Is the apparent increase in cases mainly due to more testing?

  1. If the tests were random then more tests should give more cases but most of the tests are for those who report symptoms so I think the increase is real.

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    1. Alex. small surge in new cases if put into context of your comment that most of the tests have been requested by those displaying symptoms does not stack
      Because the no of daily tests have been doubled but the no.of infections in ratio are far short of doubling in fact they are more than half in ratio
      So no doubt random selective testing ramped up for sound reasons
      Just like a helicopter flying over a tinder dry forest looking for small fires to put out before drastic action needed if not attended to
      It is proper intelligent governance

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      1. Alex.no proof but much may be targeted
        E.G. hospitals,care homes or organisations who requested now that things are opening up inc, as shops restaurants etc
        Along with public transport nos.increasing

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  2. John
    It is always dangerous to try to make assumptions in trying to identify a change in a pattern evolving as more data comes along
    But in this case and as i pointed out in a previous post
    The data concerning the massive increase in testing strongly points to the increased no.of infections
    Fri 17th 14656 new tests
    Today 21 new infections
    So that yields 1 new case/698 tests
    But if you go backwards to
    Fri.3rd. 5090 new tests
    Sat. 4th 11 new infections
    That yields 1 new case /463 tests
    Doing similar for another 10 separate days produces very similar results albeit
    With. Varying Mean Std.Deficencies
    Conclusion at this point and untill more days require to pass it is fair to assume

    1.The prevalence of the virus in the community is obviously falling and by a large margin
    Knowing such is a potent weapon in identifying any general increase very quickly and to prepare for action in a highly localised sustained manner to keep
    Overall community cases very low
    In short as soon as you smell smoke the fire alarm goes off and no matter what the fire brigade shall arrive and put any fire OUT
    2. As of Thurs 9/7 there has been a massive surge of new tests i.e.for last 9 days
    But only 107 new cases
    And only 4 new deaths
    But the time line is too short to assess anything whatsoever
    3.Very early yet but it appears that most of the infections might just be asymptomatic in nature particularly so as hospital admissions are falling at a fast rate
    Finnaly i would actually treat the increase in new infections as very good news indeed given the manner by which they have arisen through massive increase in tests and such is not following through in admissions,ICU. & Death nos
    .

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      1. Clydebuilt
        Thank you and all our actions and words going forward to victory
        Must be by due diligence and NEVER ever present our Foes with any form of recourse
        Bat straight done the middle
        No mistakes on our side
        Tis them that will certainly make them
        And punish them hard and fast when they do
        Know thy Foe

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  3. The increase in England cases in the last 5 weeks or so are partly due to including pillar 2 cases. I missed that when i posted alarm about it. What i don’t understand is where are all the other pillar 2 cases are going from before that date? There is no huge jump so they just get forgotten? I mustn’t worry Handyman will fix it oh wait that was only for underestimates.
    By the way remember that fool Dan Wootton on Talk Radio interrupting Michael Gray to claim that other regions have zero deaths, well travellingtabby now has a new UK comparison page and today there were no other regions in England with zero deaths. The best region was the northeast with 5 deaths. No deaths in NI.
    Scotland 1 death in last 10 days.

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    1. I have just done more maths re.test nos.since 28/5 to date and reveals something most interesting
      Because if you follow WHO guidance
      Which states that if you daily take comprehensive testing with fast results
      And if you have 5% or less proving positive then you have the virus firmly under control
      Scottish results are just below 1%
      To the UNIOSTS
      YA BELTER

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Alex
        Certainly never ever be complacent with this virus
        But I certain Scotland has the systems in place to firmly keep the lid on this
        In fact it appears and w/o admitting it

        That England is now going to copy us
        I have just checked UK.Gov. daily dashboard and here is the data
        England new cases 738
        Scotland 21
        So at 9.8% of English population
        Scotland would be pro rata 72 no.not 21 no.
        This represents
        England 1.33 / 100 k of pop.
        Scotland 0.38 / 100 k of pop.
        I.E. pro rata England 72 % higher than it should be in comparison to Scotland
        And that is one helluva margin which without doubt shows
        Success for us
        And
        Failure for them
        No need for judge and jury for the here and now
        We shall be that in 2021 Holyrood ballot
        For them

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    1. Jason quite literally thinks this because
      If it were in 1 small village town or city
      It would be telling you that someone or more highly infectious persons is loose
      And they and all their contacts MUST be
      Located Tested & isolated pretty dam quickly
      Also i suspect most of the 21 new cases are asymptomatic and not highly infectious as the viral count they carry is low and thereby significantly reduces the rate of transmission
      No Scientist ever reveal and for good reason what is the dosage of virus required to successfully transmit
      E.G.in early days of HIV they knew almost for certain that in order for transmission
      That
      1 A dose of over 10k of virus needed
      2.Only after initial infection is it easily transmitted
      3. After initial infection and danger past
      Then years of latent virus in the body
      Require to climb to very high nos.for transmission
      To tell the public such would w/o doubt
      Lead to their very cautious behaviour
      Going to ( no pun intended) one of gay abandon with the resultant terrible consequencies
      All justified by Ignorance is Bliss
      Sometimes Information is a very dangerous thing indeed

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      1. If it were in 1 small village town or city
        It would be telling me that one location only was infected and could be isolated from everyone else.

        Liked by 1 person

  4. I’ve just posted this to my Facebook page, along with a link to Travelling Tabby’s site:
    One of life’s great mysteries: a BBC headline sent to my phone and on their website tells me that “Scotland sees biggest [daily] virus case rise in four weeks”. That’s 21 cases by the way, and clearly not good news, but where are England’s cases on the BBC website I hear you ask? Why nowhere to be found. You’d have to look elsewhere for the fact that the answer is 796! (Incidentally, why in this article do the BBC refer to Scotland’s national clinical director Professor Jason Leitch as ‘Mr Leitch’?: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk

    Liked by 3 people

    1. The fact of 796 new cases is actually 827
      For the whole of UK
      21 of which are Scotland
      And 736 for England
      The remainder between Wales and NI

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  5. With test and trace now in place, then, people who have been in contact with a confirmed case are being tested. Since people can be asymptomatic even if infected, then prior to test and trace such people would not have sought a test. So, it is possible that increased testing might be identifying ‘more’ cases.

    When you look at the map showing the location of the 21 cases, there are 4 in Edinburgh and 3 in Glasgow and the others mostly single cases dotted around Scotland. So, these are likely to be statistical fluctuations which happen to coincide in a single day. So, the rolling average probably gives a truer figure.

    Finally, with the easing of the lockdown, there are more physical contacts, even though most people are wearing masks in places with little space. With travel restrictions eased and more flights, then more infections are possibly being imported from places with higher infection rates.

    So, various hypotheses are possible, but we need a sense of proportion – 21 cases out of a population of 5.5 million: 0.0004%

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Interesting question and some quite astute comments.
    There no good reason to doubt the cautious optimism of the pandemic team expressed via SG, the media and opposition politicians are more interested in generating hype to stir doubts, and with ABC again leading the charge, pigeon poo should never be forgotten for perspective…

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I guess it’s true that people asked to isolate may be more likely to think their symptoms warrant testing thus backing up a higher detection rate than before.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Yes

        And aren’t people asked to isolate also being asked to ask for a test? And, of course, if they’ve been in contact with someone who tested positive they’re more likely to have caught it.

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    2. Bob Lamont
      Big thanks for using ABC
      i.e. A = ABSURDISTAN
      instead of B for British
      If we throw enough mud and keep doing so then ALL will stick

      Liked by 1 person

  7. The Testing by Day chart has two view options.
    1. New test conducted – shows a recent increase from 5k to 15k per day
    2. New people tested – shows flatline around 4k per day

    Without looking at the source data, one explanation could be that NHS staff are getting regular repeat tests but due to PPE and expert medical preventive measures, these are virtually all negative tests. However since the number of tests of new people has not increased but the rate of positive results has, then that could indicate an increased rate of general infection among the public.

    With cases in England increasing, and especially at the border area, this supports the idea that the increased new daily infection rate is caused by new people testing positive due to an increase in the general public infection rate and not due to an increased number of overall tests that includes repeat/regular tests.

    This is just a possibility but hopefully we’ll find out quickly and definitively what is the proven cause(s) of the recent increase in the new daily cases in Scotland, England & N Ireland.

    Liked by 2 people

  8. And, right on cue Willie Wombat demands that the SG not impose quarantine restrictions on people from elsewhere in the UK.
    These Border Wars are becoming an absurd pantomime from the British Nationalist Parties.
    If a group from, say, Wigan or Llandrindod Wells, or Omagh has infection and are in a location in, say, Oban, then they isolate in Oban and are not sent back to where they came, and probably infecting others on their journey.

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Think W W has made a mistake on this. I reckon there is support for border closure if required. He’s talking to a very small audience.

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      1. The ‘Border’ has become symbolic or the British Nationalists. In fact, it is they who introduced this to the discourse, fairly early on, when there was discussion about restricting movement in particular areas.

        The first to raise it was Leotard, justifying it with a distortion of the Labour ‘internationalist’ trope that workers in Scotland have much in common with workers any where else in the world. They do, indeed, but there was never any ‘exceptionalist’ – i.e wha’s like us? – aspect to ‘exclusion zones’.

        The, when Carlot realised people were supporting the FM, he switched from support (remember, he chided Piers Morgan, when the latter was carping about information which Johnson had failed to give) for the SG approach to increasingly intemperate attack and his ‘there is no border’ line. This line was quickly adopted by the Westminster Government.

        And now, Wullie Wombat, is getting in on the act.

        If a section of the Border (which DOES EXIST) had to be closed to restrict movement, e.g between Carlisle and Annan, that is no different from the restrictions around sections of the city of Leicester.

        The SG is responsible for health in Scotland and that responsibility begins at the border and continues northwards and, if there is a danger to health then it is entitled to instruct Police Scotland to introduce restrictions for as long as necessary.

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