With death toll 6 times higher per capita than Scotland England is going too early

As England charges toward ever-greater relaxation of the their lock-down measures, the evidence does not seem to be there to back up the decision.

First there are the death and infection rates. The 7 day average for Scotland is currently 2. whereas it is around 120 in England. Per capita, the rate in England is nearly 6 times higher.

Infection rates are closer, with 26 yesterday in Scotland and 324 in England but that still makes the rate in England around 25% higher.

https://www.iancampbell.co.uk/covid-19.php

https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

Add to these data the outbreaks in meat packing plants and the R number solid at 1.0 or above in nearly all English regions, compared to 0.6 – 0.8 in Scotland.

In the light of the above, it’s hard to see why the UK Government is so determined to go faster than Scotland.

Perhaps Jackson Carlaw can explain?

12 thoughts on “With death toll 6 times higher per capita than Scotland England is going too early”

  1. Anecdotal supporting evidence.

    “Fionna O’Leary, 🕯 Retweeted
    Yvette Doc
    @yvettedoc50
    ·
    17h
    I’m a GP in the UK. I’ve definitely noticed an upsurge in patients reporting Covid symptoms over the past 2 weeks. Many have not been able to get tested however.”

    Liked by 1 person

  2. All Jackson Carlaw can tell us is that
    The Earth is indeed flat
    The Sun controls the tide
    He shall win Holyrood 2021 on a massive 40% swing vote
    God made heaven and earth in 7 days
    The sun rises in the N
    And sets there also
    And for the icing on the cake
    That car i have just sold you
    Is the best decision you shall ever make
    Hail Hail Hail
    Jackson Emperor in waiting

    Liked by 1 person

  3. There is a long read from the BMJ on the inadequacies of the test, track, set up in England.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2246

    ““I don’t believe the virus is under control, and I don’t believe that the system of surveillance we have at the present time is sufficient,” says Gabriel Scally, former regional public health director and a member of the Independent SAGE group of scientific advisers.1

    As lockdown restrictions are eased and businesses reopen, he is one of several public health experts worried that England’s ability to contain outbreaks of covid-19 is seriously compromised by weaknesses in the planning and operation of the government’s much anticipated “test and trace” programme.

    Launched on 28 May, test and trace is now at the front line of efforts to prevent further outbreaks. But new infections are still high (an estimated 39 000 a week in private households in England from 26 April to 30 May 2020, in survey data released by the Office for National Statistics on 5 June2), testing procedures are slow, and the tracing system is flawed, public health experts tell The BMJ. They also raise concerns about how test and trace could widen health inequalities in populations most affected by the pandemic.”

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Think the disparity in new confirmed infections must be much higher. 324 for England yesterday looks like a massive underestimate given there were 1295 new confirmed infections in the UK (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/). Scottish data includes both NHS labs and regional UK Government labs but it’s not clear if the data from England includes those and I don’t see how it can – England must account for the vast majority of the 1295 new cases yesterday. It’s not clear if Wales includes data from NHS and UK government labs but it’s likely they do given the Welsh rate per 100k is very similar to UK overall. Given England’s population, the English new infection rate yesterday per 100k can’t be less than half the UK’s – the English figure of 324 cases yesterday must be a massive underestimate.

    Like

      1. I will give a update later today showing that England is indeed sailing
        Into treacherous waters with regards covid 19
        And YES their shennagins regards no.of new cases carries on unabated
        But impossible to drill down into as to how
        I call it Blatant lies
        They would refer to such as merely
        Being economical with the truth
        Because with their weasel ways
        You have to arm yourself with the facts as to where the economics of
        Their truth are
        And such is impossible
        Know thy Foe

        Like

  5. Hmmmm….

    “Jackson Carlaw MSP
    @Jackson_Carlaw
    · 5 May
    We need to know that Nicola Sturgeon will be working with a UK-wide app for test, trace and isolate.

    As travel resumes across the UK we can’t afford the risk of Covid 19 outbreaks simply because the Scottish government want a bespoke app.”

    Liked by 1 person

  6. BTW has anybody else noticed that after weeks with few if any cases, Dumfries and Galloway is suddenly showing double digit increases in the number of positive tests.
    Of course, if we believe Mr ‘union’ Jack, it is nothing to do with the massive increase in visitors coming over the border to enjoy their ‘Boris’ day trips.

    Like

    1. Yes, i noticed and thought the same thought you did.

      By the way….

      “Simon Hix
      @simonjhix
      ·
      Jun 16
      Today, UK 7-day average daily C19 deaths at 155 (down from 216 a week ago). UK now >3 weeks behind other large European countries. E.g. 7-day mean at current UK level was on
      1 May in Germany
      14 May in Spain
      21 May in Italy
      22 May in France”

      Like

  7. As promised here is update on figs.relating to NEW cases and deaths
    For period since easing of lock down
    From 1.6.20 to 21.6.20
    Scotland has 9.8% of ENGLAND’S
    Population and England has 81.8% of UK Population
    The purpose of this is to clearly demonstrate
    1.Scotland proportionally is considerably
    Out performing England in New cases &
    Deaths
    2. England IS under reporting new cases of infection ( will expand on later )
    3. The divergence is continuing to grow
    In Scotland,s favour
    A) Scotland new cases = 333 nr. 5.1 % of England pro rata Scot.would be 634 nr.
    B) Scotland new deaths = 110 nr. 3.2 % of England pro rata Scotland would be 326 nr.

    C) England new cases = 6470
    D) England new deaths = 3325
    Now for English understating new cases
    Total new cases UK =27990
    Total new cases England = 6470
    But if pro rata & 81.8 % of UK
    Then England should be 22895 nr.
    so a shortfall of 16425 nr.
    How
    Impossible to work out fron UK Gov
    Data as the format changed 11.6.20
    You quite simply cannot drill down into the Data
    To determine Why England appears to
    Seriously & disproportionately appear to
    Have so few new cases
    So assumptions have to be made
    1.They have set up the data format deliberately so and in a manner that can be explained away but only by asking the 100% Accurate question and simply so
    And if by some miracle you can catch them out and pose such question to corner them
    Their reply would go something like this
    We were not lying but just being economical
    With the facts
    It is all very cleverly conducted so that in the miraculous scenario any who drill down and expose them
    Then they have a card to play and it is a Ace
    Labelled Get Out of Jail
    I know my foe and studied their modus operandi over many years and this is par for the course when they have a hidden agenda and objective to achieve
    And in this area it is to rapidly get the economy opened up as fast as possible
    All whilst appearing to be following the science
    They are guilty as hell here
    And unless Scotland is willing to control our border with them I am in no doubt England is firmly heading for a 2nd wave
    In their haste and subterfuge regarding this
    I am Not Crying Wolf
    This is real and a massive danger

    Like

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