From: stewartb
Headlined by BBC UK: ‘Figures released in the last hour in Scotland suggest more people have died after contracting …
Reading more from the National Records of Scotland (NRS) about death statistics.
Source:
“… figures for a particular cause of death can be produced on THREE BASES:
• ‘UNDERLYING CAUSE’ – cases where it was the disease or injury which initiated the chain of morbid events leading directly to death, or was the accident/act which produced the fatal injury;
• ‘CONTRIBUTORY FACTOR’’ – cases where it was not the underlying cause of death, but it did contribute to the occurrence of the death – e.g. it did not cause the death, but may have hastened its occurrence;
• ‘ANY MENTION’ – i.e. whether it appeared to be the underlying cause of the death, or was just a factor which contributed to, or may have hastened, the occurrence of the death.”
The same source adds : “Figures are normally provided on the basis of the ‘underlying cause’. Every death has just one ‘underlying cause’ code, and so is counted only once in figures which are produced on the ‘underlying cause’ basis.”
“A death may have several other causes coded as contributory factors, so could be counted several times in figures which are produced on the ‘contributory factor’ or ‘any mention’ bases. For that reason, figures are normally provided on the basis of the ‘underlying cause’.”
However, NRS is currently reporting the number of deaths where Coronavirus has been ‘MENTIONED’ in death registration certificates.
“Between 30th March to 5th April, 282 deaths relating to COVID-19 have been registered”. And for context: “… the total number of deaths registered in Scotland from 30th March to 5th April was 1,741. The average number of deaths registered in the same week over the last five years was 1,098.”
The NRS Director of Statistical Services explains: “We have produced these statistics based on deaths involving COVID-19, so this includes any deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate, whether it is the underlying cause of death or a contributory cause and includes registered deaths resulting from suspected or probable COVID-19.”
The same source adds: “Using this methodology means that our statistics will differ from the number of deaths released daily by HPS (Health Protection Scotland) which report on deaths with an associated positive test for COVID-19, and it is expected that NRS statistics will show a higher number of deaths. This is because NRS figures report on deaths involving confirmed and also suspected or probable cases of COVID-19.”
So perhaps ‘accuracy’, as a strict statistical term, should be used with caution. This may be a more appropriate characterisation: the NRS data provide a better representation of the overall impact on mortality of the virus. However, the partitioning between ‘underlying cause’ and ‘contributory factor’ is still to be made public as far as I can see.
Also, we will in time no doubt learn about ‘excess mortality’ i.e. a significant number of deaths reported OVER THAT EXPECTED for a given point in the year based on historical patterns.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
This is fairly damning commentary from John Pilger, on the UK gov’t treatment of the NHS, on coronavirus, on Julian Assange, etc.
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Am I missing something here ?
Am I right in thinking that even though Nicola sturgeon is seeing first hand every single day when she gives her covid19 question time recorded on Twitter that the British media lock stock and barrel lie and distort what she says , she has gone ahead and decided to issue figures for the number of people in Scotland who die from things other than covid19 but also have covid19 and even though by doing so she is departing from what England wales and NI are doing and is now allowing BBC in particular to report even more distortion by saying that covid19 is much worse in Scotland than it is .
What possesses her to do this ?
We all seen this BBC distortion coming
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Perhaps she is preparing the way for keeping us safe in lockdown after the idiots down south have told everyone to get back to normal life?
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Terence, I believe this is the type of data Wales is already reporting, who knows what England are doing (fudging the numbers by the looks of things), and I’m not sure what NI has been doing, but I think Scotland – though praised for timely and clear updates – is behind everyone else in reporting in this way. Just because the media will distort it is no reason to report numbers in a consistent way with the rest of the world – it’s the only way to get realistic comparable stats and know how to respond correctly. I think the Scottish gov’t has been too busy worrying about how things ‘look’ rather than doing things correctly. Countries with good reponses have medical/science people announcing updates first, then have the political responses – not so in the uk, including Scotland, the focus is on the political always. Greece, for goodness sake, has been making a good response and their epidemic is getting under control.
Nicola Sturgeon is announcing team decisions as well, it isn’t just Her. I’m far more impressed with her having put proper reporting in place, while everyone seems outraged, would you have more people die because someone’s public image might be impacted? I think that’s called populism. The Scottish government has been a bit slow responding, and mostly just following uk procedures – it’s like they are proving we need the union rather than showing we can respond fast and responsibly on our own, despite the hurdles. I haven’t been impressed so far, but it might be going in the right direction now.
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Then there is this as an antidote
https://www.channel4.com/news/98-year-old-recovering-from-coronavirus-got-through-it-because-of-her-faith-in-god-as-well-as-nhs
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This article from the Guardian online covers another aspect of the newly released figures but does seem a bit more measured when dealing with the newly released figures and towards the end of the article gives some info from ONS on figures for UK/England.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/alarm-sounded-over-rise-in-non-coronavirus-deaths-in-scotland
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There’s a lot of jiggery pokery going on with statistics at the minute. For sure some of it is commercially political in that it’s important for hospitals and Scottish government to demonstrate extreme expenditure in the face of the threat – for reasons of future recompense.
And for sure there are a lot of empty beds awaiting covid patients just now. Fingers crossed they are never needed.
On semi/ related note, can I make mention of this astonishing bbc ( no not bbc Scotland) story about dentistry under lockdown wherein the BDA are opening quoted as saying:
‘The BDA says Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland seem to be far more advanced in getting UDC (urgent dental care) centres up and running compared with England.‘
Coronavirus: Are dentists open during the lockdown?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52197788
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Thanks for this
Will use the dentistry piece
On your first point, one of my neighbours has passed away from lung cancer. Her son told me the covid-19 tests came back negative but the doctors still put it on the certificate and made some comment similar to what you say. Angry for some reason he’s speaking to his lawyer. I await an email from him. What do you think?
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Interesting. ( as well as very sad)
There are a lot of healthcare staff out there who are not working on covid wards but who are facing almost impossible pressures to deliver ongoing care through seriously depleted teams to those with serious health conditions that are not covid related.
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If BBC Scotland were to report the dental provision in Scotland it would frame it as “Are SCOTTISH dentists fostering the rate of infection of Covid-19, by providing a service?”
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email beep
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