BBC Scotland and the Scottish Government (?) have mis-used a line graph to suggest that something far more dramatic is happening than is actually happening. I’m amazed, on reflection, that no proper mathematician or statistician has pointed this out. I know they’ve labelled it ‘total deaths’ but that could mean that each point represents the total on that day which it does not of course.
It looks as if the TREND in number of deaths, each day from the first death on 13th March, is climbing steeply but in fact it is merely the accumulated TOTAL which is increasing in that way.
They should have used a simple table or if they had to have a picture, a bar graph where the last column of deaths would be understood to be an accumulation, a totalling of all the deaths UP TO and INCLUDING THAT DAY BUT NOT HOW MANY ON THAT DAY.
Here’s how it should be done:
Note the word ‘cumulative.’
If you want to know, as I feel sure we do, just how much worse things are getting each day, the TREND, then a line graph is appropriate, but the data should be the daily figures not the accumulated total so far.
With my limited skills, I’ve, drawn a line in red showing the daily figures I could find and revealed the TREND which is, as you can see, worrying but far less worrying.
Before anyone accuses me of paranoia again, I’ll go for dim as the explanation of how this happened.
Talking-up Scotland 'Albatraz' 
“Dim”?
No, John. It’s far too consistent for that.
Let’s not be kind to those who seek to paralyse us with fear.
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Well said, William.
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All the death totals are difficult to make sense of, as most of these are people who had underlying conditions, and may have died from those conditions in any case. It will only be once this is over and mortality rates over an extended period can be seen that the actual direct deaths can be more accurately measured.
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This is above my pay grade – should I bookmark?
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
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Thanks
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Excellent website thank you Ann. Lots and lots of graphs!
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If the Scottish Gov used this graph then did they do it in the knowledge it was wrong with the intent of scaring us into staying at home and social distancing.
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Watching RT Thursday night saw clip of Boris Johnson about 2 weeks back giving the Covid-19 briefing. “ last night I was in a ward of Coronavirus patients. I shook the hand of everyone in the ward. . . . And I’m going to continue shaking hands. “
Johnson became the first national leader in the world to contract Covid-19.
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It remains fascinating to observe how the online BBC News site reports on deaths due to coronavirus. Those that know the site will recall that it has separate pages (tabs) for UK, England, N Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
Today it is reporting the following:
– on ‘UK’ page, UK deaths
– on ‘England’ page, UK deaths
– on ‘NI’ page, NI deaths
– on ‘Scotland’ page, Scotland deaths
– on ‘Wales’ page, Wales deaths.
Now of course it is possible to work out the total for what’s missing here – but why not reported explicitly, and with similar prominence, by the BBC?
Even on this page (link below) specifically providing an update on England, the statistic on deaths given us that for the UK. And it’s not as if there are clear stats for fatalities in the English regions being provided on this News site.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-52065858
Am I reading too much into this editorial decision – or is there a deliberate effort here to under-expose the scale of what’s happening specifically in England?
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No you are not reading too much into this and in contrast today the BBC was keen to show that Testing for ‘front line’ NHS staff would be rolled out this weekend in England & Nrth Ire (not the UK) of course again with the clear intent of misleading the public to give the impression that only in England are they are leading the fight and taking proactive measures. As we are seeing more and more it is a common tactic of the BBC to distort the news to protect their paymasters.
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Note *21* days contagion for those displaying mild/moderate symptoms –
https://twitter.com/ramyrahme/status/1244088504818204674?s=21
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Well this graph is different!
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