Yes clearly ahead now after 3 full polls in 2020 and SNP heading for Holyrood majority

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Three full polls of over 1 000 16+ adults carried out in January 2020 put Yes ahead with the gap increasing over the 11-days period of data collection. Bearing in mind that this is prior to any campaigning and that we know that many Labour voters might be persuaded to move from the undecided column, this is beginning to look encouraging.

Two of polls put SNP Holyrood voting intention support at 50% or 51% (YouGov did not ask) so a clear mandate for Indyref2 seems likely if, of course, it has not been implemented before then.

James Kelly (Follow him. I do), who commissioned the Panelbase poll, offers this fascinating projection for Holyrood in 2021:

In recent years it’s been pretty common for Panelbase polls to suggest that the pro-independence parties might fall slightly short of a majority of seats in the 2021 election. But this poll could scarcely be more different, because the figures would almost certainly translate into a single-party overall majority for the SNP. One projection model suggests the SNP would have 67 seats, with all other parties in combination on 62. The SNP and Greens combined would push pro-indy representation up to 74 seats, leaving the unionist parties with just 55. And of course one thing that leaps out straight away is that pro-independence parties have an absolute majority of the popular vote on both ballots, which in theory leaves open the possibility of using the 2021 election to seek an outright mandate for independence itself – an idea that many people in the SNP have touted, but which so far Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t appear attracted to.’

6 thoughts on “Yes clearly ahead now after 3 full polls in 2020 and SNP heading for Holyrood majority

  1. Here is the unionist interpretation of the Scot Goes Pop! poll: the data were 49/46 for YES with 5% ‘don’t know’. Since ‘Don’t Knows’ are ‘shy Tories’, this means the TRUE data are 51/49 for the Union. However, these polls have a margin of error of +/- 4% so, the data are probably 55/45 for the Union. Sound familiar?????!

    I await the call from Reporting Scotland to be interviewed as a ‘respected polling expert’.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. I am engaged by the government’s of Kazakhstan and North Korea to comment on their elections and every time I predict the resuly correctly to within 0.0000001%. Beat that, John Curtice!

      Liked by 2 people

  2. A letter in todays Herod letters page, called on Ruth Davidson, Jackson Carlaw, Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Wee Wullie Rennie to set up a campaign group to “fight for the Union”!—–Honest.
    Why oh why, was Gordon Brewer and the Hon Sarah left out? ‘Sno’ fair! And the entire Repressing Scotland muppet show.

    Its as if its all our Christmas’s at once!. And a birthday. And a holiday. Yippee!

    “Bring it on” Wendy blurted out–just before being stabbed in the back by her brother( on the orders of the aforementioned Gordon?). Carlaw and Broonie—whit a double act! BRING IT ON!


  3. I just want the SNP to shut up and go away. Like all communists they cannot get enough of other peoples money. Whether it’s from Westminster or Brussels they want it. Lots of it. By the time an “untied” (untied, de-unioned) Scotland could qualify for the EU there will not be an EU anyway. (Look how badly they’re treating Italy. Demanding an 8billion fine be paid in the middle of a disaster. ) And don’t give me that tripe about Progressive Socialism. Just what do they think socialism could progress to? Full blown communism, nothing else.


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